Reinhardt: The Key Support Position Of The Period Cotton 73.50-71.50 Cents

New York cotton - though

Several attempts have been made to break through the trading interval established since late August, but the market remains in the 74.70 cent -77.50 cents interval (12 December contract).

The market began to gain strength from the low point of June (around 65 cents). The rise is not noticeable, but it is rising steadily, though the volume is small.

The market recovered 40% of the -6 month crash rate in February and the mid term oversold state.

The fund management fund continued to cut short positions, but it also stopped increasing the number of traders (according to the trader's position report on CFTC8 29).

Since June, their headroom has decreased by 16 '000 hands, and their long positions have increased by 6' 000 hands.

The short compensation of fund management fund may be one of the most important rising factors in the recent market.

The short-term upward trend is still intact. The key support interval is 73.50-71.50 cents, and the target of attack is between 79.50 and 81.50 cents.

However, if there is no strong long-term commitment of speculators and positive promotion from external markets, the potential for medium term appreciation of the market will be very limited, especially when the new cotton pressure is beginning to show itself.

The US - this week's report focuses on the current status of the American spinning industry.

After a difficult period (more than a year), the global spinning enterprises are almost the same. It is reported that the business has improved recently, and the spinning rate is nearly 100%.

Ring spinning and air-jet spinning seem to be selling well, though the demand for jet spinning has also improved.

Contrary to foreign spinning enterprises, the United States

Orders are generally good and can last until the first quarter of 2013 or even further.

Unfortunately, cotton is increasing the amount of artificial products and reducing the amount of cotton used.

In terms of investment, it is reported that foreign investors are even looking for new opportunities to expand in the US. They want to take advantage of the cheap financing and energy price advantage of the United States.

Pakistan - although the monsoon rainfall has started in some parts of the country and the river level has risen gently, it is estimated that this year's output will remain unchanged between 1400-1500 million bags.

The monsoon rains are still crucial to cotton growth and development.

Textile mills may digest 1400-1450 million bales of new cotton and export about 50-100 packages.

The textile factory expects to import 100-150 bales.

Textile mills start normal.

However, natural gas supply and electricity problems remain problems. These problems have become a long-term problem.

This week, the Pakistan cotton processing Association (PCGA) released its first report on cotton seed arrivals this year, which showed that as of September 1, 2012, all processing plants arrived at 1.731.245 bags (national weight bags).

It has been reported that the domestic textile mill has taken away the 1.507.767 package and the exporter has 2 packages. Therefore, at present, the ginning factory still has 221.478 bags of unsold cotton.

The quality of cotton in Sindh is very good.

The quality of lint cotton in Punjab is at an average level. Due to the rain early last month, some cotton quality is even below average.

India - it has been reported that the cotton growing area has had a good rain.

Rain has raised market expectations for output.

Under such circumstances, domestic prices are weak and imports are slowing down.

China - this week the market of Zheng Shang once again showed calm.

The market is narrowing and closing in about 200 points, and the turnover is still very small.

The closing price was basically unchanged.

13 year January contract -13 May contract spreads continued to weaken, bringing more positions to the market.

The auction of cotton reserves starts on Monday (September 3rd).

As of Thursday, a total of 121700 tons were sold.

The 228 class cotton price is the highest, at 19290 yuan / ton, and the 427 grade cotton price is the lowest, at 17780 yuan / ton.

The quantity of seed cotton arrived in East China and Xinjiang increased gradually.

The acquisition of cotton reserves is expected to start next Monday.

The main interest of consumers in imported cotton is still concentrated on ready consignment.

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