Annual Trend Forecast Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2012

Many people say that in 2012 China

The development of clothing is not optimistic.

Continuation of the 2011 European and American market downturn, from the beginning of the year to the present, foreign demand is sluggish, resulting in the profit margins of export enterprises have been continuously compressed; domestic demand is slowing down, and the competition pressure of domestic enterprises has been increasing; at the same time, domestic and foreign cotton price inversion phenomenon is aggravating, domestic textile enterprises are forced to use the world's highest price of cotton, the cost of raw materials is obviously higher, and it is also necessary to weaken the international competitiveness of China's textile and clothing.

These reasons have made the textile industry continue to slow down the economic growth since last year. The growth rate of major economic indicators such as production, exports and investment has been slowing down and the efficiency has declined.

But in the face of so many difficulties, the whole industry should continue to respond positively to external risks by deepening structural adjustment and strengthening industry self-discipline. At the same time, the state should also introduce relevant policies to help the textile industry return to a stable and healthy development track as soon as possible.

A few days ago, the China Textile Industry Federation released the economic operation of the textile industry in the first 7 months.

Talk about five major trends of optimism

Production slowdown has slowed down since 2012. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total output value of 37 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 3 trillion and 146 billion 710 million yuan in January ~7, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 18.8 percentage points from the same period last year, down 3.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

In the major categories of products, the growth rate of upstream products decreased more obviously. In January ~7, the output of chemical fiber and cloth increased by 12.4% and 10.8% respectively, representing a decrease of 3.8 and 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, down 1.1 and 5.4 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. Yarn production increased by 12.9% over the same period last year, a 1.7 percentage point increase over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

The output growth of terminal products has picked up. The clothing output in January ~7 increased by 11.8% over the same period last year, up 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year.

The decline in domestic sales has been affected by the slowdown in domestic macro-economic growth and the continued high price level. Since 2012, the growth rate of domestic consumption of textiles and clothing has declined.

In January ~7, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 17% over the same period last year, down 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. If the price factor is deducted, the actual growth rate of retail sales is 13%, down 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

In January ~7, the domestic sales value of textile enterprises above designated size was 2 trillion and 577 billion 30 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year, a decrease of 20.3 percentage points from the same period last year, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

The export pressure has been greatly affected by the international market demand, the domestic and foreign cotton price differential continues to widen and the enterprise production costs continue to rise and other factors. Since 2012, China's textile and clothing export pressure has increased significantly.

According to customs statistics, in January ~7, China exported 141 billion 580 million US dollars of textiles and clothing, an increase of only 0.3% over the same period last year, down 25 percentage points from the same period last year, down 3.1 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year.

If the price rise factor is deducted, the actual export volume of the textile industry is negative. In January ~7, the export price of textile and clothing increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, and the volume of exports decreased by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, representing a decrease of 5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

Investment slowdown has been affected by the slowdown in the industrial economy. Textile enterprises' investment confidence has declined, investment growth has slowed down and new construction projects have been reduced.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in January 2012 ~7, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the textile industry totaled more than 5 million yuan, 416 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 16.9% over the same period last year, a decrease of 19.5 percentage points from the same period last year, and 7945 NEW construction projects, a decrease of 9.4% over the same period last year, down 6.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

Despite the slow growth of the whole industry investment, the new investment in the central and western regions has maintained a relatively fast growth. In the month of January ~7, the investment in the textile industry in the central region increased by 18.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 30.5% in the whole country, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase over the same period last year. The investment in the western region increased by 19.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 8% of the total proportion of the whole country, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Benefits decline in the first half of 2012, the textile industry production efficiency continues to improve, in January ~6 above the scale of labor productivity increased by 12.7% over the same period, to provide support for resolving various risks.

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However, due to the concentration of external adverse factors, the pressure of enterprise development is too high, and the industry efficiency has declined compared with the same period last year.

In January ~6, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 114 billion 790 million yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 43.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, and the sales profit margin was 4.5%, down 0.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

The loss of enterprises is 18.4%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 124.1% over the same period last year.

In the sub sectors, cotton spinning and chemical fiber are affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the profits of the industries are all showing a negative growth trend. In January, the ~6 chemical fiber industry dropped by 52.3%, and the profits of 105 key cotton textile enterprises dropped by 52.1%.

Forecast the overall trend of the whole year

Domestic demand growth is expected to increase since 2012, which is affected by the slowdown in domestic macro-economic growth. The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing has slowed down compared with the same period last year.

However, the income of urban and rural residents is still growing steadily. In the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita cash income of rural residents increased by 9.7% and 12.4% respectively, which provided the fundamental driving force for the growth of domestic demand, and the expansion of domestic demand is still an important starting point for macroeconomic regulation and control policies.

Recently, domestic monetary policy has been relaxed and prices have gradually stabilized. With the further effect, domestic consumption growth will play a positive role.

On the whole, although the growth rate of clothing consumption is still lower than that of the previous year, the growth rate will gradually increase, and the pulling effect on the textile industry will also gradually increase.

international

The overall downturn and the decline in external demand have led to the shortage of orders in export enterprises, which is an important factor affecting the operation of the textile industry.

According to relevant statistics, in the first half of 2012, the total value of imports of textiles and clothing from the EU decreased by 6.9% over the first half of the year. The total import volume of textiles and clothing in the United States approached zero growth. The import volume of Japanese textile and clothing increased by only 2.2% over the same period last year, down 10.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and the international market demand was generally depressed.

Affected by the continuing deterioration of the European debt crisis, the recovery of the international market is still facing higher risks. The latest forecast released by the International Monetary Fund in mid July will reduce the global economic growth by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% in 2012, indicating that the prospects for global economic recovery are not optimistic.

It is expected that in 2012, the international market will continue to be sluggish. Textile industry exports still lack market power to stabilize and improve.

The cotton price problem is still outstanding. Since 2012, domestic cotton prices have always been higher than the international market, and the price spreads have been widening. As of mid August, domestic cotton prices have been more than 5000 yuan higher than the international market per ton, and the spread has increased by 67% compared with the beginning of the year.

According to the market demand and supply situation, it is hard to predict the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices in the near future, and the new cotton temporary purchase and storage policy is about to start.

There are still many risk factors. The pressure factors that have been affecting the development of the industry in recent years still exist.

The cost of production and other production factors of textile enterprises continued to increase. According to the survey, the per capita wages in the textile industry increased by about 15% in the first half of the year. Statistics show that domestic fuel power prices increased by 3% in the month of January ~7.

The problem of financing difficult to raise funds has not yet been completely solved, and the cost of financing remains high. In the first half of this year, interest payments for Enterprises above designated size increased by 29.5% over the same period last year, which is 19.8 percentage points higher than that of the main business revenue growth over the same period.

Coupled with the continued downturn in external demand and the fluctuation of raw material prices, the overall operation of the industry is still facing many risks. Further deepening the industrial restructuring, accelerating the pformation of development mode, and resolving various external risks from the root cause are still the root task faced by the whole industry.

Economic growth will continue to slow down, supported by the domestic demand market, and the main production and marketing indicators of the industry will continue to grow throughout the year.

However, under the circumstances that the international market demand is hard to improve obviously, the domestic production costs continue to rise and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the export pressure of the industry is still outstanding, which will further drive the growth of production and sales of the industry.

Because the price trend of cotton is not clear at home and abroad, the negative growth of textile industry is difficult to reverse.

However, with the gradual increase in domestic demand and the decline in the number of statistics in the same period last year, the rate of decline in production and sales growth is expected to gradually decrease.

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Note:

In the past year, we came around in September. From the beginning of the year to the present, as an industry journalist, we have heard the heads of numerous enterprises tell the difficulties of enterprises in 2012, such as export difficulties, slowing domestic demand, too much price difference between cotton, the continuous increase of costs, and the pressure of funds.

These phenomena are like magnifying glasses, which highlight the survival difficulties of clothing enterprises.

From the beginning of 2012 to the present, only the textile economic operation conference held by the China Federation of textile industry has been up to 3 times, not to mention that the complaints of garment enterprises heard by other conferences and forums are countless.

In the meantime, reporters visited many industrial clusters, and interviewed many textile and garment enterprises. At the grass-roots level, they saw many garment enterprises working overtime to increase their orders, and saw some business operators struggling to solve problems. But they saw more preferential policies offered by local governments to support enterprises and enhance economic development.

Before winter, many enterprises have gone through the cold winter, but also let more enterprises learn to pform and upgrade. They should focus on innovation, talent retention, quality and integrity, and improve them from within.

When it comes to many entrepreneurs, in the face of such a predicament, whether or not an enterprise will be powerless, almost everyone will smile and shake their heads.

In their view, the economic crisis is inevitable and will happen at any time. They have experienced more difficult situations like the Asian financial crisis and the world financial crisis in 2008, and the only thing that can be done now is persistence, firmness and firmness.

In fact, from the export level, the whole trend is slowly turning.

As Tan Yaling, Dean of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said, "the recovery of the US economy is stable. This means that our main trade export situation is very good.

Europe's status is weakening and fragile, but it can be seen that many countries in Europe are mainly developed countries, so their demand should be very large.

What China's foreign trade enterprises should do now is to export quality, quality and branding.

To have the competitiveness of core technology, we must have the competitiveness of core brand products, so that Chinese products will have their own place in the world market. "

Recently, all TV stations have just finished a hit TV drama called "Beijing youth". The most classical saying is "if you do not abandon, I will live and die together".

This sentence seems to be full of little love and petty love, but when it comes to thinking about the relationship between the enterprise and the industry, this phrase always comes to mind.

For textile

The relationship between enterprises and the current economic environment, many entrepreneurs still do not abandon, but hope that there is no lack of life and death of the tragic, they firmly believe that there is a future: if you do not abandon, you must have a bright future.