Eight Measures To Promote Foreign Trade Growth, Five Industries Such As Textiles And Clothing To Benefit From Export Tax Rebates.

Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting to study and determine policies and measures to promote stable growth of foreign trade.

A number of discussions on the steady growth of foreign trade were discussed at the meeting.

"And has identified eight policies and measures to speed up the export tax rebate, ensure accurate and timely tax rebates.

According to the insiders, the eight policy measures cover the export tax rebates, export credit insurance and trade financing, which are most concerned by foreign trade enterprises. If they can be implemented as soon as possible, they will boost the foreign trade industries such as light manufacturing, textile and clothing, electronics, machinery and equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and trigger investment opportunities.

The boom in the electronics industry is expected to improve.

Restricted by the export oriented development mode, the downturn of global economic growth will cause greater resistance to the export of China's electronic industry, which will lead to a decline in the growth of industrial scale.

In 2012, with the slowing down of global economic growth, the export of China's electronics industry is more resistant, and the growth prospects of industrial scale are not optimistic.

This time, speeding up the export tax rebate will undoubtedly help the recovery of the entire electronic industry and the difficulty of enterprises.

Judging from the current market performance of the electronics industry, according to the Securities Daily's Market Research Center and flush IFIND statistics, according to the weighted average calculation of total market value, the electronics industry has gained 5.93% since September and has won 2.86 percentage points of the market.

Specifically, Dahua intelligent (40.1%), Tianjin magnetic card (27.86%), Tongfang Guoxing (20.921%), Chang Fang lighting (18.86%), Shun Luo Electronics (17.57%), Tongfu micro electricity (16.71%), China Aviation photoelectricity (16.43%), rainbow share (16.32%), Ying Tang intelligent control (16.19%), Zhongjing Electronics (15.93%), Anglo Tech (15.79%), Tongfeng Electronics (15.79%) and Beijing Jun (15.79%) and other stocks have gained more than 20.921% since September.

For the investment opportunities in the electronics industry, debbond securities predicts that the creation of innovative products such as Ultrabook and IPAD Mini will boost the wave of the electronics industry.

We can continue to pay close attention to apple and Samsung (micro-blog) and other industrial chains, and we can also focus on the LED industry that will benefit from the rapid development of policies.

It is recommended to continue to pay close attention to the fast-growing stocks in the industrial chain, such as the long letter Technology of the intelligent terminal industry chain, GoerTek acoustics, Changying precision, Angjie technology, and Hongli photoelectric and sunlight lighting of the LED plate.

Hongyuan securities expresses its emphasis on investment opportunities in the field of innovation and long-term growth, such as Changying precision, innovation, crystal optoelectronics, Changxin technology, Lai Bao Gao Ke in the field of innovation terminal, Han Wei Electronics and Hikvision in the field of safety monitoring, LED, and so on.

Tax refund for machinery and equipment to promote industry development

Machinery industry is a labor-intensive industry, but this year's operating conditions are not ideal. Net profit has declined in the first half of this year, especially for some small businesses.

The previous export tax rebate rules have consolidated all the existing effective regulations on export tax rebates, and have adjusted the problems reflected by export enterprises on the basis of maintaining basically stable export tax and consumption tax rebate system, so that small and medium enterprises and new enterprises have benefited a lot.

This time, speeding up the export tax rebate will contribute to the development of the entire machinery and equipment industry.

From the current market performance of machinery and equipment industry, according to the Securities Daily Market Research Center and flush IFIND statistics, according to the weighted average calculation of the total market value, the machinery and equipment industry has increased 6.39% since September and has won 3.32 percentage points of the market.

Specifically, Ding Heng Technology (59.57%), Zhongyuan special steel (43.96%), Dagang Road (41.89%), aerospace technology (33.37%), Changjiang RFA (30.82%), Sifang Da (30.78%), Taiyuan Heavy Industries (23.77%), Kexin electromechanical (22.37%), Dalian third base (21.84%) and Hangzhou oxygen share (21.45%) and other 10 stocks have increased more than 10 since September.

In terms of performance, the overall net profit attributable to parent company shareholders in 2012 was -26.33%.

When the overall performance of the industry declined, there were 171 mechanical equipment stocks in the medium term net profit growth in the same period last year, and the industry accounted for 47.63%, of which 32 of the 50% medium term net profit growth exceeded 50%, accounting for 8.91% of the industry.

Specifically, *ST Western axis (3509.7%), Xu Guang share (3415%), *ST direction (2984.15%), stone coal equipment (753.4%), Wanli shares (419.06%), Baosheng shares (230.68%), Jiangnan red arrow (217.56%), Ji AI technology (212.79%), Nandu power (200.78%), new Japan Hengli (180.07%), *ST Galaxy (167.52%), Hua Zhi Holdings (145.89%) and Ke Yinghua (167.52%) and other shares in 2012 belong to parent company shareholders net profit growth rate over the same period.

For the post market configuration of the machinery and equipment industry, Orient Securities believes that the valuation of the machinery and equipment sector is at a historic low level. With the steady growth of China's macro-economy, it is expected that the mechanical equipment sector will show higher elasticity. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant stocks of the board: Zheng coal machine, Tiandi technology, Linzhou heavy machinery and Shandong mining machinery.

Thematic investment opportunities exist in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries

In August, foreign trade data showed that the external environment faced by our country has not improved significantly. Analysts believe that the eight measures proposed by the State Council to stabilize foreign trade growth are very timely.

Judging from the current market performance of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, according to the statistics of the Securities Daily, market research center and flush IFIND statistics, according to the weighted average calculation of total market capitalization, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery has increased by 5.35% since September, and it has won 2.28 percentage points of the market.

In terms of stocks, 78 stocks in 85 stocks have risen since September, accounting for 91.76%.

Specifically, 11 stocks rose by more than 10%, Minhe shares (26.74%), high gold food (17.99%), Yongan forestry (17.84%), West King Food (15.58%), Wanfu Sheng (15.38%), eagles farming (14.52%), big north agriculture (13.40%), Dunhuang seed industry (12.12%), good family (11.95%), agricultural products (11.95%), Eastern Ocean (11.95%), accounting for the proportion.

In terms of fundamentals, the effective stock of Hybrid Maize and rice seeds at the beginning of 2012 seed production is 400 million kg and 50 million kg, which is at a relatively high level.

Analysts pointed out that in 2012, the area of two hybrid seed production continued to increase compared with 2011. It is estimated that the end inventory will rise to 6.6 billion tons and 0.7 million tons, and the inventory pressure will be enormous.

According to Pacific Securities, it is expected that in September, the international food price will be sorted out or the main keynote. The theme investment opportunities brought about by the increase in grain prices will come to an end.

In the second half of the year, the investment strategy suggests that the government will set up seed industry development fund in the fourth quarter to provide financial support for the development of seed industry, and introduce the national modern crop seed industry development plan (2011-2020 years) to accelerate integration in the industry.

Now, with the advent of favorable policies, it is suggested that we should pay close attention to the leading seed enterprises that are expected to take the lead in the consolidation of industries, such as long Ping high tech, Deng Hai seed industry, Tai Bei Nong, Tsuen Yin high tech, etc.

Slow recovery of light manufacturing and downstream demand

As for the State Council's eight policy measures to ensure steady growth of foreign trade, analysts pointed out that the adjustment of tax rebate rate has a positive effect on exports and constitutes a positive impact on light industry enterprises with relatively high export.

Historically, the large-scale export tax rebate rate has been increased 2 times, once after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the second large-scale tax rebate rate was raised after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.

Statistics show that after the implementation of the export tax rebate, the export of industrial products in the later period did recover.

Judging from the current market performance of light manufacturing industry, according to the Securities Daily's Market Research Center and flush IFIND statistics, according to the weighted average calculation of total market value, the electronics industry has increased 4.78% since September and has won 1.71 percentage points of the market.

In terms of stocks, 76 stocks in 80 tradable light manufacturing stocks have risen since September, accounting for 95%.

Specifically, Lao Fengxiang (14.53%), Weihua shares (14.21%), Fenglin group (12.16%), Fiyta A (10.35%), *ST crown Fu (10.13%), Del home (10.03%), Panda Fireworks (10.02%) rose more than 10%, ranking the top.

Subdivision light manufacturing industry, Huatai Securities to the furniture industry "overweight" rating: furniture export growth continued to rise, also has a great role in enhancing the industry rebound.

Sophia, a leading manufacturer of custom wardrobe, and Yihua wood industry, which is outstanding in domestic sales.

Maintain the "neutral" rating of the paper industry: high investment in fixed assets will make the supply and demand imbalance of the industry exist for a long time. The new capacity will increase in the second half of the year, while the recovery of downstream demand is slow. The downward trend of pulp price and paper price is difficult to change in the short term, and the profitability of the industry is difficult to upgrade.

It is suggested that we should pay attention to the demand for rigid, relatively stable growth of paper making enterprises in China, as well as the leading enterprises in the industry.

Maintain the "neutral" rating of the packaging industry: Although the anti cyclical industries such as food, beverages, daily necessities and other industries have rigid demand characteristics, the demand for packaging has steadily increased, but the cumulative growth rate of traditional electrical appliances such as refrigerators and air conditioners has continued to decline, and multidimensional growth is negative.

Affected by the slowdown in the macro-economic growth, the demand growth rate of the entire packaging industry is slowing down. The improvement of the industry performance in the future will depend on the improvement of the economic situation, and the probability of a significant macroeconomic improvement in the near future is relatively small.

The suggestion is to focus on the vacuum aluminizing paper industry's overlord Shanghai green new.

Spin

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in the 1-8 month of this year, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles reached 586 billion 400 million yuan, up 17.5% from the same period last year. In August, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles reached 66 billion 900 million yuan, and the same ratio increased by 21.1%.

Analysts pointed out that the growth rate of domestic sales in August was 2.7 percentage points higher than that in July, continuing the trend of domestic sales rebound in the two quarter.

Overall, the slowdown in the national economy, the reduction of inflationary pressure and the lack of consumer confidence will restrict clothing consumption. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of domestic clothing sales will be around 18%-20%.

From the current market performance of the textile and apparel industry, according to the Securities Daily Market Research Center and flush IFIND statistics, according to the weighted average calculation of the total market value, the textile and garment industry has increased 4.66% since September and has won 1.59 percentage points of the market.

In terms of stocks, 68 stocks rose in the 77 textile and apparel stocks that could be traded, accounting for 88%.

Specifically, rod Jie shares (28.57%), Fujian Nanfang (28.18%), Zhonghe shares (19.33%), Lukang science and Technology (13.60%), Jiangsu three friends (12.16%), China Group (11.42%), ST Zhongguan A (10.83%) rose more than 10%, ranking the top.

In the first half of this year, the revenue of the listed companies in the whole industry of textile and garment industry totaled 87 billion 498 million yuan, up 5.03% from the same period, 7 billion 140 million yuan, 21.05%, and the net profit of the shareholders of the parent company was 6 billion 69 million yuan, down 16.37% from the same year. In addition to the increase of income, the operating profit and the net profit of the mother to mother fell considerably in the first half of 2012.

Guo Hai Securities believes that from the profitability perspective, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the textile and garment industry in the first half of 2012 were 22.87% and 7.12%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

Judging from operating indicators such as cash flow, inventory and accounts receivable, it was found that the operating cash flow / operating income index has recovered to the average in previous years in the first half of 2012, while the inventory turnover and receivables turnover index have all deteriorated. It shows that the industry's test of business capacity is strengthening under the slowing down of external demand, and the improvement of business indicators in the second half of this year will also slow down under the expectation of macroeconomic bottom.

Founder Securities said that the textile manufacturing sub industry: the textile industry has not yet seen the turning point, the external market demand is still relatively low, and the overall volatility of the textile sector is more likely.

Clothing home textile sub industry: in the weak

In the environment, the brand clothing enterprises determined by the performance increase have better defensiveness. The medium and long term are optimistic about the Pathfinder, the search for special, the long style stock, the nine herd king and the seven wolves.

In the short term, we can pay close attention to Meng Jie, home textiles, YOUNGOR and home textiles.