Clothing Market In August: Domestic Sales Are Recovering And Exports Continue To Decline

A week's main review: 1. Industry tracking: (1) in August, the number of retail sales of 100 key large enterprises increased by 8.41% over the same period last year.

The volume increased by 16.72% over the same period last year, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous month, the highest monthly growth rate this year.

Clothing sales rebounded significantly, retail sales grew by 5.03% over the same period last year, a 2.5 percentage point increase over the same period, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

2. Exports of textile and clothing fell 3.3% in August.

In August, the two categories of exports of textiles and clothing fell by 3.8% and 3.1% respectively, although the slowdown has slowed down, but the export situation has not improved.

2, company tracking: (1) tracing birds: 2012 annual net profit growth is expected to be in the range of 30%-40%. The company will continue to accelerate the layout of the extension channel network in the future, and promote the two pformation from the promotion of supply chain efficiency, internal operation efficiency, channel efficiency and retail efficiency. It is estimated that the net profit growth will remain 30% in 2013. Considering the increase in the second half of the year, considering that the size of the stock issuance will be reduced at present, it is estimated that no more than 50 million shares will be issued at the present time, and the size of the final issue will be determined by the stock price before the issue.

Second, home textile tracking: the three quarter has entered the peak season for household textile products consumption, and terminal sales have improved.

It is estimated that the growth rate of 7-8 month shipping revenue will be around 20-30%. The annual revenue growth is expected to be around 10-20%, and net profit growth will be about one digit.

It is estimated that the rate of opening shops in the second half of the year is basically the same as that in the first half of the year. The number of shops opening in 7-8 months is about 50.

In the new store, the main brand is 50%, and the excellent family is 1/3.

In terms of marketing network construction, the company adheres to the mode of direct line and two or three line cities joining the first tier key cities. At present, the Beijing, Ningbo and Wuhan markets have withdrawn the company's direct battalion.

3. Shanghai Jahwa tracking: by the end of August, it is estimated that the revenue of the six gods will exceed the expected growth rate of over 10%, Herborist's steady growth will be about 25%, and the star brand GF will continue to maintain a high growth rate of about 75%. Maxam's growth rate slowed down by about 15% in the new and old handover phase.

It is estimated that the revenue of the agent business has exceeded 200 million and is expected to contribute about 300 million of the total revenue in the whole year.

Last week

The trend of clothing sector is slightly weaker than that of the market.

Textile and apparel index fell 0.17% last week, down 0.10% from the Shen Wan A index.

Among them, the textile manufacturing index fell 0.03%, relative to Shen Wan A index rose 0.03%; clothing home textile index fell 0.28%, relative to Shen Wan A index fell 0.21%.

Industry basic data: 1. In August, the number of retail sales increased by 8.4% over the same period, of which retail sales increased by 16.7% and retail sales increased by 5%.

2. Exports of textile and clothing fell 3.3% in August.

Last week, cotton and chemical fiber prices rose mainly: domestic 328 spot spot last week went flat to report 18637 yuan / ton, Zheng Mian's main contract slightly dropped 0.5% to 19490 yuan / ton.

Polyester staple fiber rose 1.7% to 10900 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber leveled at 15500 yuan / ton, nylon yarn rose 1% to 20500 yuan / ton.

Our view: August

Domestic market sales showed a more obvious trend of warming, but exports continued to decline, waiting for the industry boom further rebound.

In August, the domestic sales situation of clothing was obviously rebounded by the discount sales promotion. The gap between the growth rate of garment market and the same period last year decreased month by month, but the growth rate of the overall consumer goods market remained low, and the stabilization of the market remained to be seen.

Last week, textile and garment sector valuations were slightly callback. We can see that the market is still cautious about the signal of sales warming in a single month. At present, the safety margin of the industry is still strong. We believe that if the hundred data in September can still maintain a relatively fast growth, it is possible for the industry to have value fixing.

Recommended men's white horse, seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, good news birds, and potential growth stocks Shanghai Jahwa and long Zi shares.

Home textiles is still in the development stage of the life cycle of the industry, and its long-term prospects are promising. The home textile share price of Luo Lai has a larger pullback rate, giving better opportunities to intervene and recommending appropriate attention.