Peng Yanli's Brief Analysis Of The Economic Operation Of China's Wool Spinning Industry

This year, the macro situation is still grim and complicated.

The global economic recovery is sluggish, the European debt crisis is constantly emerging, the growth of emerging economies is slowing down, and commodity prices have fallen sharply.

As a traditional industry, the development of wool textile industry has encountered unprecedented difficulties.

What kind of mentality should the enterprises face in order to achieve sustainable development? In the twenty-fourth China International Wool Textile raw material trading information conference,

Peng Yanli, President of the industry association, analyzed the economic performance of the wool spinning industry.

She said that the current difficult situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. Enterprises should make full psychological preparations for long-term coping with the predicament, build confidence and speed up the pformation and upgrading of the industry.

Since the beginning of this year, under the backdrop of the international economic recovery and the slow pace of domestic economic development, the factors affecting the economic operation of the wool textile industry are intricate.

The export, investment and domestic consumption performance is weak, cost rising, financing difficulties and other factors perplexing enterprises. The economic operation of China's wool textile industry has entered a comprehensive downward channel.

This year, the sluggish economy has led to weak domestic and foreign market demand for wool spinning.

The gross domestic product value of 1123 wool textile and dyeing finishing finishing enterprises in 1~7 month scale increased 112 billion 700 million yuan, up 8.08% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 18.25 and 8.24 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. The sales value reached 108 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 6.91% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 20.18 and 7.91 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. The domestic sales accounted for 87.02%, the growth rate was 6.88%, and the growth rate was 6.88%% and 7.91 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter of last year.

The international market demand is seriously insufficient.

Customs statistics showed that the number of raw materials and products exported from 1~7 decreased by 16.9% compared with the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period in 2009 (-20% in the same period). The unit price increase slowed down the export volume.

From the observation of export products, the export of wool tops and wool yarns in the upstream of the industrial chain is larger than that of the rear end fabrics. The decline of clothing exports is larger than the decline of textiles. Only the export of wool carpet continues to grow, reaching the highest level in the same period of history, but the export price has dropped by 3.05%.

From the export market, the main export destination market, the European Union, the United States and South Korea fell more than the average decline of exports, and maintained a small increase in ASEAN exports.

This indicates that the terminal market demand of international wool products is sluggish. In addition, some of the products are sent to low cost countries, and some of our yarn and fabric products are exported to low cost countries to meet the needs of their industrial chain matching.

Domestic market sales growth slowed down month by month.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles in 2012 1~7 were 518 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 17% over the same period last year, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period of retail sales growth.

Domestic retail sales fell 9.4 percentage points from the same period last year, while clothing retail sales dropped 7.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

It shows that the scale of domestic retail demand continues to expand, and garment demand growth is higher than overall demand, but the growth rate is falling faster.

The overall growth rate of domestic textile market is different from that of the textile industry, and the cumulative growth rate of domestic wool market is decreasing month by month. Since the two quarter, the rate of decline has accelerated, showing that domestic market demand is not strong.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, the volume of retail sales of the major retail enterprises in the first half of the year was basically the same as that of the same period last year, a slight decrease of 0.05% over the same period last year.

The retail sales of men's suits increased by 5.57% over the same period last year, and the retail sales of cashmere and sweater decreased by 13.37% compared to the same period last year.

The sluggish market situation in 2012, coupled with rising labor costs, high raw material costs and high financing costs brought about by the high price of wool raw materials, have made the pressure on enterprises more and more serious, and the profitability has weakened.

In the first half of this year, the total profit of 1123 Enterprises above Designated Size reached 4 billion 183 million yuan, up 2.2% from the same period last year.

The two level division of enterprises is more serious, and the deficit has reached 24.13%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises has increased by 92.33%.

At the same time, we noticed that the quality of upstream operation of the industry chain is not as good as that of the downstream industry, and the quality of small and medium-sized enterprises is not as good as that of large enterprises.

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Market demand is the fundamental motive force and objective basis for the normal operation of an enterprise.

Judging from the international market, the EU economy has no signs of improvement, consumption expenditure growth is weak, the fundamentals of the US and Japan are better than that of the European Union, but influenced by the structural adjustment of consumption expenditure, the consumption demand for clothing has declined.

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This shows that the uncertainty in the international market is still high and the outlook is not optimistic, and this situation may continue for a longer time.

In the domestic market, under the background of economic downturn, industrial production growth slowed sharply, investment and consumption continued to slow down, and GDP growth slowed down gradually.

Driven by factors such as continuous high domestic textile raw materials and rising labor prices, the factory price of clothing consumer goods is still rising under the overall fall in the prices of industrial products, and the increase in food prices in CPI remains high, which inhibits the growth of demand for apparel products.

It is expected that the growth of domestic sales will accelerate gradually in the selling season, but the overall growth level will be significantly lower than the previous year.

The sale of wool products without price competitive advantage will be more affected.

Because of the slowdown in domestic macro-economic growth and the steady fall in prices, monetary policy began to become stable and loose.

It is expected that the domestic monetary environment will remain relatively relaxed for the rest of the year, and the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate may still be lowered.

In order to control the rebound in prices, credit will continue to be steady and will not relax significantly. Therefore, the financing difficulties of SMEs will not change significantly.

From the aspect of production factors, although the market demand is not prosperous, the price of wool will be affected by factors such as supply and exchange rate.

Since 2012, the rise in labor prices has become a rigid demand. It is estimated that the per capita wage of the textile industry will increase by about 15% throughout the year, and the pressure of enterprises will continue to increase.

Affected by weak industrial demand and limited price of electricity by the state, the price of domestic steam coal has continued to decline this year.

Fuel power prices are expected to remain low.

In addition, the task of energy saving and emission reduction in wool textile industry is arduous.

During the "11th Five-Year" period, the total volume of sewage discharged from the textile industry was much higher than that of the national industrial wastewater discharge.

In the 39 industrial sectors, the textile industry wastewater discharge ranks third, after the paper industry, chemical raw materials and products industry.

The total amount of sewage discharged from the textile industry is also increasing in the whole country.

The COD emissions of textile industry ranked fourth in 39 industrial sectors, and the proportion of chemical oxygen demand in textile industry also showed an increasing trend. The gap between reality and the national "11th Five-Year" put forward that the total emissions of major pollutants dropped by 10%.

Therefore, the printing and dyeing industry is listed as one of the four key points of the national "12th Five-Year" energy conservation and emission reduction.

In the field of wool scouring, dyeing and finishing, the task of reducing emissions during the "12th Five-Year" period is very arduous.

In short, China

The situation faced by the industry is very grim, and this difficult situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. Enterprises should make full preparations for coping with the predicament in a long period of time, build confidence and speed up the pformation and upgrading of the industry.