Yang Xiaoxiong Talk About Nanjing Wool Market Trend

2011/2012,

Prices have experienced several rounds of fluctuations, such as soaring demand, weakening demand and falling prices.

The instability of wool prices has further troubled the woolen textile enterprises that are facing difficulties, and the trend of wool market has also become the focus of attention in the future.

At the twenty-fourth China International Wool Textile raw material trading information exchange, the reporter interviewed Yang Xiao hung, general manager of Nanjing wool market, and asked her to analyze the trend of wool market.

The price of wool market has declined sharply in 2012. Can you analyze the reason?

Yang Xiaoxiong: first of all, let's review the wool market trend.

July 2011 is the watershed of wool market price.

With the rise of the international wool market, the Nanjing wool market composite index reached a historical peak of 9050 cents per kilogram in July 30, 2011.

However, after July 2011, the international macro level experienced the baptism of "blood and rain".

The spread of the European debt crisis, the downgrading of the US rating and the global economic weakness are the downward trend of prices.

Entering the 2012, the global economic situation worsened and became more complicated.

In particular, the "black May" brought about a sharp decline in the financial market, the market risk aversion rose sharply, export enterprises encountered unprecedented pressure, domestic demand at the same time difficult to boost, many enterprise funds are difficult to continue.

International wool prices fluctuated violently, and the Chinese market followed suit. The overheating of wool began to cool rapidly and the market entered a downward path.

From the Nanjing wool market T54PPP, T55, T424 average price index trend, we can see that from July 2010 to July 2011, the wool market has been on the rise, especially the fine wool.

In 2011, the average price index of T54PPP, T55 and T424 reached the historical peak of about 205000 yuan / ton, 119500 yuan / ton, and 73200 yuan / ton respectively.

This is due to rigid demand and market confidence.

But after July 2011, the price of fine wool was obviously inverted "V" trend, it could be described as "rapid rise and fall".

At the beginning of 2012, the average price index of T54PPP, T55 and T424 were 148100 yuan / ton, 86600 yuan / ton, 54300 yuan / ton respectively. As at the end of August this year, they were 110650 yuan / ton, 81200 yuan / ton, 46500 yuan / ton, respectively, 25.3%, 6.2%, 14.3%, and the price difference between the three was decreasing.

This shows that the market price support this year mainly comes from 20.0~23.0 micron wool, and the demand for fine wool is sharply weakened.

The market's demand for coarse wool makes us have to admit that the competitiveness of wool has become less and less than that of other low-cost textile fibers.

In order to maintain production, many Woollen Mills in China have already cut down the output of woollen fabrics or reduced their proportion, and used other alternative fibers.

This is a very dangerous signal, because the use of alternative fibers will reduce the amount of wool rapidly.

Author: customs data show that this year China

Crude wool volume fell year by year, and wool export also dropped sharply. What is the specific situation?

Yang Xiaoxiong: China is an important importing country and importing country of wool in the world.

In 2010, we imported 333 thousand tons of wool.

In 2011, we imported 331 thousand tons of wool.

In 2012 1~7 months, China's gross imports of raw wool amounted to about 152 thousand and 600 tons, down 6.4% compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of fine imports dropped by nearly 25%.

In addition to South Africa and New Zealand, imports from major wool producing countries have declined.

In 2012 1~7 months, China imported 105 thousand and 600 tons of raw wool in Australia, down 7.7% compared to the same period last year. China imported 2 thousand and 900 tons of Uruguay's gross domestic product, down 45.4% from the same period last year. China's imports of European wool 13 thousand and 100 tons, down 19.9% compared to the same period last year.

In the month of 1~7 2012, China imported 17 thousand and 900 tons of New Zealand wool, an increase of 0.1% over the same period last year. China imported 9 thousand and 400 tons of South African wool, up 112% compared to the same period last year.

Analysis of the reasons for the decline in the amount of imported wool: first, the decline in global wool production is an indisputable fact, but the price has risen too fast, and everyone has increased its risk aversion. Secondly, we are buying up or buying down, which has led to the downward entry of the market this year. Many enterprises have entered the wait and see period. Once again, under the influence of the international environment, the market confidence is insufficient, and the downstream demand reduction is far beyond the impact of supply shortage. More enterprises choose to buy wool according to order, reduce production and reduce production.

As the world's wool processing capacity has been pferred to China, the export of Chinese wool tops has been on the rise in recent years: in 2010, China exported 38 thousand and 100 tons of wool tops, and exported 45 thousand and 700 tons of top wool in 2011.

But by 1~7 months in 2012, China's gross export volume was about 19 thousand and 320 tons, down 32% compared with the same period last year.

In July, 2441 tons of export tops were dropped, down 43.1% compared with the same period last year.

This shows that external demand has sharply weakened.

The export situation is not good. Many export enterprises have taken part in domestic sales, while the domestic demand is weakening.

For downstream enterprises, with the sharp reduction of sales, the inventory of semi-finished products and finished products is increasing, liquidity is reduced, and the industrial chain is facing more difficulties.

The author: please analyze and predict the future trend of wool market.

Yang Xiaoxiong: people in the industry are more concerned about exchange rate.

The trend of exchange rate has indeed led the trend of wool prices to a certain extent.

But exchange rate is an uncontrollable factor in wool price.

It changes quickly and is hard to grasp. We only have to follow the trend.

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For the future trend of wool prices, we must return to fundamentals.

The price of wool is a game between demand and output.

The curve of Nanjing wool market composite index basically follows the trend of CPI in China. This further shows that demand is another key factor affecting wool price trend.

The growth rate of China's consumer price index CPI in 2012 has dropped for 6 consecutive months, indicating that consumers are pessimistic about future economic prospects, incomes, prices and other economic indicators. This will make consumers' immediate consumption demand weaken, which will undoubtedly cast a shadow over China's domestic sales in the second half of the year.

The global economic situation is sluggish, which has dragged down the domestic market.

At a time when the price of wool is still running high, the price of wool and other fibers is still not competitive. The upstream enterprises of the raw materials will have a low willingness to buy goods because they have more market risks and financial pressure.

The second half of this year is usually the peak season for domestic sales, but this year the situation is relatively grim. Many dealers' inventory inventory is still waiting to be processed in the past year. For this year's new products, consumers' purchasing groups and purchasing power have declined, the factory orders are more difficult, and orders are also more cautious.

As a barometer of wool yarn sales, Pu Yuan woolen sweater market is also experiencing an unprecedented sales and lightest year. Many dealers are hard to keep up.

The main feature of this year's domestic sales is "coming late and ending early", and the overall sales time is shorter than in previous years.

The survival of small businesses is more difficult.

In addition, the continuous rise of labor costs has brought great pressure to enterprises.

The prospects for export markets in the second half of this year are also worrying.

The uncertain influence of the world economy is complex and changeable, and many export oriented enterprises have turned to domestic sales, which has struck a weak domestic market.

In addition, influenced by the increase of China's comprehensive factor cost and the enhancement of textile competitiveness of neighboring countries, part of the purchase orders in the international market flow to Southeast Asian countries. China's market share of textile and garment products in the major developed countries will further decline, and the competition in the international market will intensify.

Even if the United States recently announced the implementation of QE3, we believe that the impact on wool fabrics will not be great.

We suggest that domestic enterprises should focus on developing high-end products, promote their pformation and upgrading, and take the initiative in finding emerging economies and developing new markets.

How to generate demand, find demand and create demand has become a common problem faced by wool people and the direction of joint efforts.

We need to promote wool more, so that we can learn more about wool and make it more widely used, occupy more market share, and realize its use value and value.

The author: Nanjing wool market has actively participated in the formulation of the general paction terms of "China Australia purchase of wool, washed wool, carbonized wool and wool tops", and you are also the head of Sino Australian wool joint group, and have done a lot of work.

What measures will the future market take in promoting trade and services?

Yang Xiaoxiong: in order to further serve the industry, Nanjing in the future

We will focus on the following points: first, the market will intensify efforts to popularize the use of the new general trading terms throughout the country, and make regular revisions and reviews so that we can safeguard the international trade order and abide by contracts and keep our promises.

Two, in the face of the global economic situation, we should strengthen cooperation with banks to provide services for members, including cargo pledge and bill discounting, to help members solve urgent problems.

Three, we will also build an electronic matchmaking trading platform to enable all member enterprises to trade through the Internet, allowing traditional industries to integrate into the modern Internet era.

I believe that with the joint efforts of all of us, on the basis of the combination of information platform and physical platform, we can encourage each other, build consensus and deepen cooperation, and ultimately we will achieve win-win results.