On September 24, 2012, Institutional Trading ----- Cotton Futures

　 [Hongyuan futures ]Zheng Mian falls back and pays attention to the 20 day line support

main points

1. Price report: domestic lint: 129 grade 20499 yuan/ton; Grade 229 19628 yuan/ton; Level 328 18752 yuan/ton; 428 level 17914 yuan/ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan/ton; Viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan/ton; The price of C32S is 25630 yuan/ton.

2. Domestic spot price: On the 21st, the domestic spot price of cotton continued to run smoothly. Due to fewer downstream orders from textile enterprises, enterprises sold cotton yarn at a loss, and more enterprises stopped working, the demand for cotton was insufficient. The turnover rate of ex warehouse sales of reserve cotton remains at a low level, which also indicates that downstream textile enterprises have limited demand for raw materials, and the market is still in a downturn.

3. Imported cotton: On September 21, the quotation of imported cotton fell sharply, and the decline of all varieties generally exceeded 1 cent. As the contracted volume of American cotton failed to exceed the market expectation when the cotton price was in a downward channel, the market was even more pessimistic about the demand after the rebound of cotton price. At present, with the gradual listing of new cotton in the northern hemisphere, the pressure of falling cotton prices at home and abroad has increased significantly. In addition, China will not issue additional quotas this year, which will restrict the entry of foreign cotton into the Chinese market. Therefore, the future trend of foreign cotton is not optimistic.

4. Selling and storing cotton: On September 21, 19521.81 tons of reserve cotton were actually sold, with a turnover rate of 43.20%. The weighted average transaction price was 18473 yuan/ton, which was 18621 yuan/ton when converted into 328 grade cotton, 138 yuan/ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) of 18759 yuan/ton on that day.

5. ICE cotton: On September 21, despite the decline of the US dollar and the general rise of commodities, the ICE cotton was sold off by investors at the end of the day. The contract fell again in December, and the decline exceeded the previous trading day, hitting the lowest level in five weeks.

Summary:

Currently, the collection, storage and dumping of storage are carried out at the same time, with different prices. The dumping of cotton reserves more truly reflects the price of cotton in China's social circulation. After the start of collection and storage, cotton resources will flow to the national reserve. However, the three-stage structure of cotton prices will not change until the global demand for cotton has improved significantly. The price of cotton in China's social circulation will move closer to the 20400 stock price, but moving closer does not mean that it can be achieved. At the national cotton situation analysis meeting, it was confirmed that the dumping and stockpiling would end on the 29th of this month, and the import cotton quota would not be issued in the second half of the year. Affected by this news, ICE fell sharply. Although Zheng Mianchong rose, it fell recently, but pay attention to the support of the 20th day line. The operation continues the strategy of bargain hunting and long buying.

[Maike Futures] The cotton inertia drops in the period of inactive market procurement

On the overnight external market, on September 21, despite the decline of the US dollar and the general rise of commodities, investors sold off the ICE cotton late in the day. The contract fell again in December, and the decline exceeded the previous trading day, hitting the lowest level in five weeks. The oversupply of global resources and the quota restrictions on China's foreign cotton imports before the end of this year are unfavorable to the market. With the contract in December falling below the main price average, the low of 72.25 cents may be tested next week.

In the international market, on September 21, the quotation of imported cotton fell sharply, and the decline of all varieties generally exceeded 1 cent. As the contracted volume of American cotton failed to exceed the market expectation when the cotton price was in a downward channel, the market was even more pessimistic about the demand after the rebound of cotton price. At present, with the gradual listing of new cotton in the northern hemisphere, the pressure of falling cotton prices at home and abroad has increased significantly. In addition, China will not issue additional quotas this year, which will restrict the entry of foreign cotton into the Chinese market. Therefore, the future trend of foreign cotton is not optimistic.

Domestic market, 21st, domestic cotton The spot price continued to run smoothly. Due to the small number of downstream orders of textile enterprises, enterprises sold cotton yarn at a loss, and the number of shutdown enterprises increased, the demand for cotton was insufficient. The turnover rate of ex warehouse sales of reserve cotton remains at a low level, which also indicates that downstream textile enterprises have limited demand for raw materials, and the market is still in a downturn.

State reserve dynamics: 1. On September 21, 19500 tons of reserve cotton were sold out, with a turnover rate of 43.20%. 321500 tons of reserve cotton were sold out, with a turnover rate of 48.54%. 2. On September 21, 18390 tons of cotton were temporarily collected and stored by the state. In 2012, 61790 tons of cotton were temporarily collected and stored, including 13710 tons in the mainland and 48080 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, on September 21, US C/A cotton 91.1 (cents/pound), converted to RMB 15495 yuan/ton (calculated as sliding allowance tax) for general trade port delivery price; Australian cotton is 96.35 yuan, which is 16205 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; 92.35 Uzbek cotton, converted to RMB 15661 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; 87.60 West Africa cotton, converted to 15045 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery; Indian cotton is 86.35 yuan, which is 14888 yuan/ton for general trade port delivery. The national cotton price A index is 19629 yuan/ton; B index (CNCotton 18759 yuan).

Market analysis shows that the recent US cotton export data is worse than expected, mainly due to the poor consumption expectations of China. Domestic textile enterprises are still in a difficult situation. The cotton yarn shipment is limited. In addition, the liquidity is tight, and the enthusiasm for purchasing lint is not high. The lint spot market is under pressure. The external cotton market closed sharply last Friday, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Zheng Mian's weakness fluctuated after the big rise last Tuesday, and attention was paid to the lower support of 19500. {page_break}

In terms of operation, if it falls below more than 19500, it will leave the site.

　 [Yide Futures] The cotton market is still weak. Zheng Mian is short when the market is high

On Friday, CF1301 opened lower and moved lower. CF1301 closed more than 97000 hands, with a small decrease in positions. CF1301 closed at 19680 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton and reduced 8854 positions; On September 21, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) was 89.28 cents/pound, down 0.87 cents/pound. The converted price under 1% tariff was 14461 yuan/ton, and the converted price under sliding rate tax was 15209 yuan/ton.

According to the news on September 21 in New York, American cotton futures closed lower on Friday and also recorded a weekly decline. The market initially withstood the general decline of commodities this week, but ultimately failed to defeat the bearish sentiment.. ICE12 contract settlement fell 1.97 cents, or 2.6%, to 73.25 cents per pound.

On September 21, 16620 tons of commodity cotton were traded in the national cotton trading market, an increase of 7320 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the order volume was reduced by 180 tons, with 122360 tons in total. On the 21st, all contracts of matchmaking were opened at a low price, which was volatile and declined during the day, and the final price fell. Fundamentally, the release of reserve cotton is nearing the end, and the trading volume has increased again in recent days; The daily trading volume of stock collection and storage has gradually increased, with a turnover of 162900 tons yesterday, which shows that the enterprises are active in stock delivery. However, weak downstream demand still restricts the rise of cotton prices. According to the current comprehensive situation, the purchase and storage is still the main factor affecting the cotton market. With the gradual deepening of the purchase and storage, the price will gradually approach the purchase and storage price.

On Friday, Zheng Mian opened low and walked low. After breaking through 19700 last week, the callback fell again into the shock range. Today, it is expected to continue the callback. It is suggested that investors continue to hold empty orders. Although the cotton market is in the period of storage, the price of cotton inside is too high and demand is significantly insufficient. Zheng Mian is difficult to break through the 19700 range. It is suggested that you hold an empty order today. The reference price range of CF1301 is 19400-19800.

　 [Wanda Futures] The peripheral environment was weak, and the cotton fell after breaking the ICE stage

Due to the continuous sharp decline of international commodities and the decrease of buying from China according to the export data of American cotton, the ICE cotton futures fell to a high level. The main contract in December fell sharply for two consecutive days, again falling below the strong support level of 75 cents/pound. On Friday, it closed down 1.97 cents to 73.25 cents/pound, which continued the trend. At present, the macro level is still weak, the global inventory of fundamentals has reached 16.66 million tons, while consumption has continued to shrink, and the overall market does not have the basis for a sharp rise. In this case, the liquidation of some multiple profits has led to the decline of ICE cotton futures, and there is a trend to challenge the strong support of 70 cents/pound again.

On Friday, the ICE cotton broke its position and fell. The main force in December again closed below the short-term average and 75 cents/pound. The short-term average had a downward trend. KD and MACD indicators continued to fall short. The MACD indicator green column grew, and the decline would continue. It is expected that the contract in the next December will challenge the strong support of 70 cents/pound.

China's dumping and storage are still in a large number of auctions, highlighting the low demand of textile enterprises for raw materials. It is understood that some textile enterprises can maintain their inventories until the end of the year. At the same time, new cotton has begun to appear on the market in a large number. The cost of Xinjiang is between 18500-19200 yuan/ton, while the cost of some small bales of cotton in the mainland is only 18000 yuan/ton, which will impact the cotton price when increasing market supply. The overall market supply is loose, but consumption shows no signs of improvement, Zheng Mian It may be subject to the pressure of hedging and selling, and will continue to hold short orders of 1301 contracts with the decline of ICE cotton futures, with the short-term target of 19400 yuan/ton.

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