September 26, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10920 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14980 yuan / ton; C32S price 25720 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot continues to operate smoothly.

In 2012, the sale of reserve cotton went on sale. It is expected that the listing amount of new cotton will be gradually enlarged before the suspension of sales on the 29 th, and the market supply of lint is guaranteed. However, with the support of the purchasing and storage policy, the price of new cotton will probably be higher than that of the current reserve cotton and foreign cotton, and the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter is still not optimistic.

3. cotton imports: in September 25th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port fell again, and most varieties fell less than 1 cents. The decline in Central Asia cotton was more obvious, reaching 1.8 cents.

After the continuous decline of import cotton, the enquiry of textile mills increased significantly, but a small number of quotas would limit the volume.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 25th, the China cotton reserve management company plans to sell and store 44922.88 tons of cotton reserves, and the actual turnover is 24760.43 tons, with a turnover rate of 55.12%.

The 328 class cotton price is 18594 yuan / ton (public weight), down 47 yuan / ton compared with September 24th, which is 172 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18766 yuan / ton.

5.ICE cotton: on the same day, there was no direction in the market, and after the afternoon, a wave of buying and buying went into the market to form support for the period cotton. The contract reached a maximum of 73.59 cents / pound on that day. After buying, the profit went through all the gains, and the contract ended at the lowest level since August 14th.

Summary:

At the same time, the price is different.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up does not mean that it can be achieved because the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter demand is still not optimistic.

On the one hand, we must maintain the view that cotton prices will run at a low level for a long time. On the other hand, we should pay full attention to the policy of purchasing and storage and take the idea of lowering prices in order to operate. CF1301 40 and 60 day moving average are very important indicators.

[MEIKO futures] new cotton is coming to market, and the pressure on cotton firm is gradually showing.

Overnight, in September 25th, the US consumer confidence index was higher than expected in September, which once stimulated ICE futures to go higher, but this advantage was quickly counterbalanced by the upcoming launch of the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere. The December contract hit a 60 day moving average and fell again, and refreshed its lowest 5 week record again.

Because of the obvious negative pressure on fundamentals, there is a slim chance of ICE rising in the near future.

1, according to the estimation, as at the end of September, the number of bonded cotton in main ports in China was 70-75 tons, less than 7 and August. The main reason was that the number of imported cotton in India was lower than that in the 8 and September, especially the shipment speed of cotton, Brazil cotton and West African cotton.

2, the International Trade Commission of the United States made a sunset review ruling on 19, and will continue to levy anti-dumping duties on polyester staple imported from China.

International market, September 25th.

China's main port price fell again, most varieties fell less than 1 cents, and Central Asian cotton fell more sharply, reaching 1.8 cents.

After the continuous decline of import cotton, the enquiry of textile mills increased significantly, but a small number of quotas would limit the volume.

In the future, the supply of resources in the northern hemisphere will be greatly improved, and the selection of varieties of textile factories will be diversified, especially China's new cotton is also entering the market, so the sale of cotton will become increasingly difficult.

The domestic market, 25, the domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, domestic policy has given the cotton price more powerful support, affected by the policy of purchasing and storage, the cotton price stage active decline kinetic energy is suppressed, there is high demand for shock finishing.

Mid way links, the recent domestic cotton yarn market remained stable, the market turnover is still mainly 32S, 40S yarn, pure polyester yarn, polyester cotton yarn individual varieties market slightly declined, the price slightly reduced, but pure polyester yarn 32S, 45S market sales is still available.

National Reserve dynamics: 1 and September 25th, the sale of reserve cotton was 24 thousand and 800 tons, and the turnover rate was 55.12%. As of September 25th, the total sales volume of the reserve cotton was 365 thousand and 700 tons, with a turnover rate of 48.59%.

2, in September 25th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business was 29550 tons. As of September 25th, the total annual cotton purchase and storage paction in 2012 reached 117940 tons, of which 22740 tons were traded in the mainland and 95200 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, September 25th, the US C/A cotton 88.60 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price 15171 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax); Australia cotton 93.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15828 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 89.60, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 15300 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.85, discount general trade port delivery price 14826 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19634 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan; the B index was 18766 yuan, up 7 yuan.

Market analysis, with the 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage work, the supply of high-grade cotton on the market will gradually reduce, to support the spot price of lint.

But the domestic and foreign cotton price difference structure is still not conducive to China's textile enterprises. The inventory will be high at the end of the whole world, and the fundamentals will be dominated by the weak adjustment pattern.

ICE cotton contract fell 0.23%, cotton futures fell fourth days.

Zheng cotton may maintain the trend of concussion in the short term, focusing on the support of the 60 day moving average.

Operation, temporary wait and see, see the effectiveness of MA60 support.

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[one German futures] cotton before the beginning of the cotton market, flat cotton, low price settled empty list

Tuesday CF1301 low shock, CF1301 close closing more than 5.2 million hands, a small increase in holding.

CF1301 closed at 19490 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton, reduced 2514 hand; in September 25th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.31 cents / pound, fell 0.41 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14146 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14961 yuan / ton.

According to the news of New York on September 25th, the US cotton futures continued to bear pressure on Tuesday, hitting a five week low, and was affected by seasonal selling before the harvest in the northern hemisphere.

The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.17 cents, or 0.23%, and the settlement price was 72.33 cents per pound.

In September 25th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market was 10660 tons, 1860 tons less than the previous trading day, the order volume increased by 380 tons, and the total order 92980 tons.

On the 25 day, the opening price of each contract was high and low.

Basically, the textile season is about to end, but the market is still weak in recent years, and the market is sluggish.

Affected by this, cotton market is light, with few turnover.

On the macroeconomic front, IMF CEO, Lagarde said on Monday that the global economy is facing slow economic recovery in the US, slowing growth in emerging countries and a continuing European debt crisis.

The global economic outlook is likely to be lowered again next month.

This shows that domestic textile and clothing export prospects are still not optimistic.

Zheng cotton low shock on Tuesday, back to the 19200-19700 shock interval, is close to the lower track, it is suggested that investors should settle down some empty bills, high end orders can continue to hold, at present, cotton market demand has not improved, only the purchase and storage support, so Zheng cotton did not get rid of the shock energy range of the upward shock.

Before the holiday, try to settle positions or control positions to a lower level to avoid systemic risks.

Today's operation suggests that the bottom line will be closed and the bottom bill will continue to hold. The reference price range of CF1301 will be 19300-19600.

[Wanda futures] new cotton market supply pressure increased in the northern hemisphere, cotton prices continue to fall

Although US economic data showed that US consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in seven months on Tuesday, Americans were more optimistic about the job market and income prospects, but this did not constitute support for cotton prices. Due to the large number of new cotton markets in the northern hemisphere, supply pressure appeared, ICE cotton continued to decline, and the main contract in December fell 0.17 cents to 72.33 cents / pound, the lowest to 72.27 cents / pound, a new low since August 16th.

Due to the lack of substantial benefits, cotton prices will remain down under pressure of supply, and the December contract will challenge the support level of 70 cents / pound.

Technically, on Tuesday, the ICE cotton rush rate fell down, and the main contract closed on the short-term average in December. The short-term average line turned down to form a blank arrangement. The KD and MACD indexes continued to fall short, the MACD index green column growth, the downtrend will continue, and it is expected that the December contract will challenge 70 cents / pound strong support position.

China

The purchase price rises, and the cost of acquisition in some areas reaches 20000 yuan / ton, but this does not change the pattern of the spot market downturn.

On the other hand, the continued recession of the euro area has dragged down the global economic downturn, and textile and clothing consumption is hard to revive.

At present, the market is facing a loose supply demand pattern. The pressure of zhengmian stock will play a role in the 1301 contract. Cotton prices will continue to decline and continue to hold empty contracts. The 1301 contract will challenge 19400 yuan / ton supporting position. If the support falls, the downstream target will reach 19000 yuan / ton, otherwise it will extend 19400-19700 yuan / ton.