September 27, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10920 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14980 yuan / ton; C32S price 25720 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 26 day, the spot price of domestic cotton rose slightly. With the new cotton coming on the market, the purchasing and storage volume also increased gradually, of which Xinjiang cotton traded more than 80%.

Eleven the new cotton market will increase rapidly after the holiday, and the market pressure is expected to increase.

3. cotton imports: on the 26 day, the price of imported cotton in China's main port fell slightly, and the varieties fell by 0.25 cents.

Judging from the market situation, although the difficulty of extra cotton sales is increasing, cotton merchants have not given up completely and actively promoted sales to win customers. After all, there are still quotas for imported cotton in textile mills. At the same time, domestic high-grade cotton is likely to enter the reserve bank, so as to bring opportunities to high-grade cotton.

However, at present, the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere and insufficient overall demand will continue to contain the market, and the price of cotton will probably continue to decline.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 26th, the reserve cotton plan was put up for 45090.64 tons, and the actual turnover was 26415.30 tons, with a turnover rate of 58.58%.

The 328 class cotton price is 18641 yuan / ton (public weight), up 47 yuan / ton compared with September 25th, which is 127 yuan / ton lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18768 yuan / ton.

5.ICE cotton: in September 26th, the market rekindled worries about the euro zone sovereign debt and led to the rise in the US dollar index. The general decline in the commodity market had a negative effect on the ICE cotton. Investors cut their long positions and led to a 71 cent break in December. The settlement price hit the lowest record since August 3rd this year.

Summary:

At the same time, the storage and storage of the reservoir is carried out at the same time, the price is different.

The price of cotton in Chinese society is reflected more truthfully.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up does not mean that it can be achieved because the domestic textile enterprises have not yet been out of difficulty, and the latter demand is still not optimistic.

On the one hand, we maintain that the cotton price will run at a low level for a long time.

Technically, the United States and cotton broke the position. Zheng cotton also fell below the important moving average.

[MEIKO futures] substantial pressure on cotton production under pressure

Overnight, in September 26th, the market rekindled fears about the euro zone sovereign debt and led to a rise in the US dollar index. The general decline in commodity markets had a negative effect on the ICE cotton. Investors cut their bull positions, resulting in a December contract breaking below 71 cents, setting the lowest record since August 3rd this year.

At present, the market bearish atmosphere is strong, ICE futures will maintain a downward trend.

On the news side, Pakistan's cotton yarn exports increased by 50% in August, and Thailand's cotton imports surged and cotton yarn exports rebounded.

It can be seen that the low cost of spinning in the world has resulted in the improvement of the competitiveness of the middle links in China's neighboring countries.

In the international market, in September 26th, the price of China's main port of import cotton fell slightly, and the varieties fell by 0.25 cents.

Judging from the market situation, although the difficulty of extra cotton sales is increasing, cotton merchants have not given up completely and actively promoted sales to win customers. After all, there are still quotas for imported cotton in textile mills. At the same time, domestic high-grade cotton is likely to enter the reserve bank, so as to bring opportunities to high-grade cotton.

However, at present, the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere and insufficient overall demand will continue to contain the market, and the price of cotton will probably continue to decline.

domestic

On the 26 day, the spot price of domestic cotton rose slightly. With the new cotton coming on the market, the purchasing and storage volume also increased gradually, of which Xinjiang cotton traded more than 80%.

Eleven the new cotton market will increase rapidly after the holiday, and the market pressure is expected to increase.

At the end of last year, owing to the fact that most of China's better quality cotton was imported into the country, and the high quality varieties of American cotton were in short supply, Australia cotton, which had obvious quality advantage, continued to be favored by textile mills.

In addition, because the Chinese authorities said that the quota of cotton imports would no longer be issued before the end of this year, the number of foreign cotton entering China would be greatly reduced after the completion of the pre contract.

National Reserve dynamics: 1 and September 26th, the turnover rate of 26 thousand and 400 tons of dumping and storage was 58.58%. As of that day, the total volume of dumping and storage was 392 thousand and 100 tons, with a turnover rate of 49.16%.

2. In September 26th, 53840 tons of contracted storage were received. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 171780 tons, of which 27420 tons were traded in the mainland and 144360 tons in Xinjiang.

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Spot quotation, September 26th, the US C/A cotton 88.35 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15140 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 93.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15795 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan 89.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15268 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14795 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14733 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19635 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18768 yuan, up 2 yuan.

Market analysis, throwing storage will end this week, the acquisition and storage work steadily, especially since this week, Xinjiang warehouse turnover rate is more than 90%, with the continuous collection and storage work, China will end a record high inventory, plus new cotton supply pressure remains, the textile industry is sluggish, cotton city pressure is difficult to slow down.

Cotton fell for five days, ICE cotton fell 1.8% overnight.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton main 1301 contract fell below the 60 day moving average.

On the operation, short line empty list is recommended.

[Wanda futures] European debt crisis rekindled cotton prices continue to decline

Street protesters and police clashed against Spain's new round of spending cuts, while tens of thousands of Greeks marched in the streets, the biggest anti slash demonstrations in many months, and also clashed with police. European problems have rekindled investors in the euro zone debt crisis.

At the same time, China lowered its macroeconomic forecast next year, which led to the fall in international commodity prices. The ICE cotton contract in December fell 1.31 cents to 71.02 cents / pound again.

At present, the market is facing the pressure of new cotton market in the northern hemisphere. Consumption is still weak due to the global economic downturn. The market lacks favorable factors, and the downtrend will continue. The December contract will challenge 70 cents / pound support position.

Technically, on Wednesday ICE cotton was closed, and the main contract in December was still closed under the short-term average. The short-term average line turned down to form a blank arrangement. The KD and MACD indexes continued to fall short, while the MACD index green column growth, the downtrend will continue. The December contract will be selected to fight for 70 cents / pounds strong support.

With the approaching of the Mid Autumn Festival, some textile enterprises began to take the opportunity to take a long vacation. At the same time, a large number of new cotton stocks went on sale, and the national reserve remained in circulation. The willingness of the textile enterprises to replenish the stores was extremely weak, which led to the spot cotton price being maintained weak, and the short atmosphere was serious, causing Zheng cotton to fall again.

The new cotton in the northern hemisphere cotton region has begun to list in large quantities, and the supply has begun to increase. However, thanks to the economic recession in the euro area, the global economy continues to decline, textile and clothing consumption is no improvement, and the cost of China's products is much higher than that of the international market.

Therefore, at present, the market is in a pattern of weak macro level, pressure of basic supply and increasing consumption. Cotton prices continue to decline with the US cotton, and they continue to hold empty contracts. The 1301 contract is 19400 yuan / ton, and the downward target will be 19000 yuan / ton.

[one German futures] cotton before the beginning of the cotton cotton market approaching the track

On Wednesday, the CF1301 tailed market dived, and CF1301 closed more than 6.6 million hands, with a small decrease in holding.

CF1301 closed at 19395 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, reduced 2514 hand; in September 26th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 86.41 cents / pound, fell 0.9 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14002 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14849 yuan / ton.

According to New York's September 26th news, the ICE cotton market accelerated its seasonal and speculative selling on Wednesday, causing the cotton futures contract to fall below 71 cents per pound for the first time since early August.

ICE12 cotton fell 1.31 cents, or 1.8%, and the settlement price was 71.02 cents per pound.

In September 25th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market was 10660 tons, 1860 tons less than the previous trading day, the order volume increased by 380 tons, and the total order 92980 tons.

On the 26 day, the contract was basically opened up, and within a narrow range of days, it ended up.

On the basic level, the cotton reserves were put into operation on the 29 th, and the quota of 400 thousand processing trade has also been issued. It is reported that the current circulation of cotton in the market is enough to meet the needs of enterprises for 2-3 months.

On Wednesday, Zheng Mian Mei city diving, at this stage, due to the supply of cotton reserves, the supply of cotton market is adequate, and the demand has not increased, then Zheng cotton is facing greater price pressure. The continued acquisition of State Reserve has dragged down the cotton price. Zheng cotton is still in the concussion interval, but the narrow shocks will continue. But we need to guard against the possibility of breaking the track in the near future, and the seasonal price pressure can not be ignored.

However, Zheng cotton's volatility is relatively low, and the risk of holding a profit is relatively small. It is suggested that the positions should be closed as far as possible before the festival, or control positions to a lower level, so as to avoid systemic risks.

Today's operation suggests that the bottom line will be closed and the bottom bill will continue to hold. The reference price range of CF1301 will be 19300-19600.

[GF futures] Zheng cotton keeps 60 day moving average to 202000 range shocks.

[market performance]

The US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton market accelerated its seasonal and speculative selling on Wednesday, making the cotton futures contract falling below 71 cents per pound for the first time since early August. The December cotton contract CTZ2 fell 1.31 cents, or 1.8%, and the settlement price was 71.02 cents per pound, the lowest since August 3rd. The lowest intraday price dropped to 70.98 cents. {page_break}

The 1301 contract of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange opened at 19460 yuan / ton, closing at 19395 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, the highest price 19555 yuan / ton, and the lowest price 19365 yuan / ton.

Turnover increased to 66286 hands, and positions were reduced by 3950 to 226374.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull.

The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19585 yuan, and the three grade cotton price is 18663 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton on the previous trading day.

[operation suggestion]

New cotton is on sale.

The index resists stubbornly under the support of the 60 day moving average, and sees a bargain in the bargain, but it lacks strength in upstream.

At the end of the month, the store will be stored for short term fermentation. The short-term 60 day moving average will reach 20200 intervals.