Oil Prices Are Expected To Increase By &Nbsp, And Dealers Will Stay Up.

In October 19th, Nymex closed at $81.25 / barrel, and it stood above $80 / barrel after the National Day holiday.

"According to our estimate, no matter time or amplitude, domestic

It is precisely with this expectation that the domestic oil product market has been surging in recent times. Not only has Shandong produced a booming production and marketing situation, even the inventory of PetroChina and Sinopec has also seen a year-on-year decline of around 5%.

Because of the high international oil prices, many operators expect oil prices to go up.

However, in the view of Li Li, an analyst at Yi Mao, there is no obvious change in market supply and demand. The current demand growth is bound to fall behind the expected price adjustment.

Queue for oil grabbing

On the 19 day, Zhang Jun came to a refinery operation Department in Dongying, hoping to purchase 500 tons of diesel oil in cash.

At this time, the Department of operation has already lined up a large number of units. Many of the refined oil dealers familiar with Zhang Jun are crowded here to wait for the purchase of oil.

Zhang is deputy general manager of a refined oil sales company in Ningbo, Zhejiang, and is responsible for the purchase of refined oil products for a long time.

After 2008, because of the improvement of domestic supply and demand, he had not come to Shandong for a long time.

"However, since September, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil, especially diesel oil has skyrocketed. Now that international oil prices are still high, who knows what will happen in the coming months?" first, let's go ahead with more orders, "Zhang Jun said.

According to him, in Zhejiang, many private gas stations have cancelled sales price concessions in the past, and their prices are consistent with those of the two major gas stations.

In his view, after 2008, the domestic oil product market changed the "oil shortage" phenomenon into oversupply. In order to sell more oil, they often sought customers at the price of less than two big group gas stations. However, after August of this year, the domestic market supply was intense, especially diesel. Many local wholesale oil companies in Zhejiang had greatly raised the wholesale price. This really surprised Zhang Jun, for fear that the market would return to 2008.

Data from Yi trade also confirm this.

Since September, the national average price of diesel has risen by nearly 500 yuan / ton, while the two largest group has only about 13 million 500 thousand tons of refined oil storage, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the same period, and a decline of about 5% over the same period last year.

According to Li Li, diesel tension is mainly caused by the centralized overhaul of PetroChina and Sinopec's refineries, resulting in short supply in the market. With the recovery of these refineries, the supply of diesel has gradually improved.

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However, the high international oil prices once again pushed these operators into tension.

Since the international oil price broke through 80 US dollars / barrel in October 1st, there has been no major callback. With the extension of time, the conditions of domestic oil price adjustment are gradually being met.

The "oil price management measures (Trial)" promulgated in May 2009 stipulates that when the average price of crude oil in the international market is changed by more than 4% on average for 22 working days, the price department of the NDRC can adjust the price of finished products such as gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene in three.

"According to our calculations, by the 20 conditions of this month, the two conditions have already been met, and the next step is not to adjust the price. It depends on the NDRC."

Zhong Jian said.

Now that the price rises can be realized at any time, Zhang Jun's oil grab is not difficult to understand.

Reforming the pricing mechanism?

Although the industry has highly praised the effect of the implementation of the oil price management measures (Trial Implementation), the "22 days" and "4%" people set up artificially set Zhong Jian regretted.

"This is mainly because the NDRC is not pparent about the forming factors of these two conditions, such as when to calculate 22 days, and when the 4% price is based on the price."

Zhong Jian said.

Because of these unclear factors, many people and industry analysts, including Zhong Jian, can only judge the national development and Reform Commission's next action by guessing and summarizing past experience. However, this will undoubtedly distort the normal price trend artificially and cause the short-term imbalance between market supply and demand.

The national development and Reform Commission and other relevant institutions are very clear about this issue. However, in view of the rising dependence on foreign oil in China, officials from relevant departments said in an interview that "these factors will not be pparent for the time being, and will not directly link domestic prices to international prices".

At the beginning of this year, reporters visited Johannesburg, South Africa, and found that in South Africa, the country whose oil dependence has reached over 70% and suffered international embargo, its oil price has already been in line with international prices.

According to the relevant person of South Africa's largest oil company, South Africa's SSO company, South Africa adopts the crude oil import market evaluation mechanism. Its refined oil price is also implemented monthly adjustment, and is in time with international oil prices. "But here is a week ahead of the week to announce price adjustment information, so that operators and consumers can have sufficient preparation and reaction time, so there will be no oil grab, oil shortage, etc."

In fact, for other countries with high dependence on foreign oil products, the national development and Reform Commission is not not aware of the pricing mechanism of refined oil. However, in order to achieve steady economic development and curb inflation, the national development and Reform Commission has not yet carried out a greater reform of the pricing system of China's refined oil products.

"Oil is the basic material related to the national economy. The price fluctuation will have a significant impact on the entire national economy. We must be cautious."

An official of the State Energy Bureau said.