Terminal Textile Demand Slows Down But Profits Lose Collective.

The three quarter of 2012

The market is getting stronger.

Of the 20 products we monitor, 15 products have risen, accounting for 75%; 5 products have fallen, accounting for 25%.

Among them, polyester filament, polyester staple fiber and acrylic fiber have bottomed up and rebounded, rising by 14.5% to 18.8%; 328 grade cotton and Zheng cotton, viscose staple fiber, 30D spandex and 40D spandex gently increased 0.5% to 3.5%; ICE phase cotton, 20D spandex and nylon filament plate fell slightly, or 0.7% to 2%.

Generally speaking, there are two forms of commodity price rise.

One is the demand pull up. The demand growth has led to a shortage of supply. The shortage of supply has led to price increases. The other is a cost driven increase. The rise in commodity prices is mainly due to the increase in production and circulation costs, even if the supply and demand is loose, or even the excess capacity.

This year, the slowdown in demand for terminal textiles is a well-known fact.

According to the latest data released by the NDRC, China's textile yarn and its products in 2012 1~7,

Both fell by 0.2%, down 8% and 8.1% respectively in July.

From the export structure of 1~6 months of 2012, fabrics and finished products have grown slightly, and yarn volume and price fall, respectively, 3% and 8%, respectively, of which the cotton yarn line drops the fastest, the decline is 3.8% and 15.3% respectively.

Export volume decreased by 4%, and export average unit price increased by 5%.

For textile raw materials, most of the rising prices are cost driven.

After entering the three quarter, the upstream raw materials such as PTA, MEG and other products have been actively pulled up, which makes the chemical fiber factory feel enormous cost pressure. The manufacturers on the profit and loss line only have to be outdone and actively catch up, but the weak demand of downstream demand can not support the continuous rise of the market.

So there is only one final result: everyone is basically losing money during this period.

Take polyester polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm as an example, the market price center rose from 11050 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton in the three months of 7~9 months, up 16.32%, but according to the cost formula of PTA * 0.865+MEG * 0.335+1000 yuan / ton, 7~9 months polyester fiber 1.4D 1.4D 38mm most of the time gross profit was recorded negative value, the average profit was at the level of -150 yuan / ton.

After entering the "golden nine silver ten" traditional peak season, the demand for terminal textile has not yet been significantly active so far.

The price of upstream raw materials is rising, and the cost pressure has gradually shifted to the weaving factory as the industry chain has been postponed.

Because the cost is difficult to pfer successfully, many enterprises make arrangements for reducing production or shutting down production. Once the textile enterprises stop production and reduce production due to losses, they will have an impact on the sales of textile raw materials, and will directly damage the vital interests of chemical fiber factories.

It can be said that nothing can be done alone.