China'S Manufacturing Industry: PMI49.8% Textile And Apparel Industry In September Was Higher Than 50%

China's logistics and purchasing Federation, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center released in September, China's manufacturing industry PMI was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, the index has picked up since May this year.

Among the main sub indices, only a few individual indexes fell slightly, and most of the indices rose to varying degrees. Especially the main leading indexes such as the new order index and raw material inventory index picked up significantly, indicating that the policy measures effect of the steady growth of the country gradually emerged, and the economic operation gradually stabilized, which laid a good foundation for the stable growth of the four quarter.

Judging from the 11 sub index, only finished goods inventory index, employee index, supplier delivery time index decreased slightly, and the other indexes all picked up in varying degrees.

From the point of view of industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry,

Industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing, tobacco products and other 8 industries were higher than 50%; electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, textile industry and other 13 industries were below 50%.

According to the survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry in September, Zhang Liqun, an analyst with special analysts, said: "in September, the PMI index rebounded, indicating that the signs of economic stabilization were obvious.

The rise in the new orders index reflects the steady growth in domestic investment and consumer demand, and the rise in the new export orders index indicates that exports are beginning to recover.

Finished product inventory index continued to decline, raw material purchasing index picked up, indicating that the enterprise to inventory activities basically ended.

Production index rebounded showed that the impact of the increase in orders, business production began to recover.

Comprehensive analysis, the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change, and it is expected that economic growth will steadily increase in the future.

The new orders index is picking up.

This month's new order index was 49.8%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month.

From the industry, 9 industries, such as tobacco industry, textile and clothing industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing industry, computer communication and electronic equipment, instrument and meter manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry and so on, are over 50%, and 12 industries such as metal products, textile, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are below 50%.

From the regional perspective, the eastern and northeastern parts are above 50%, while the central and western regions are below 50%.

From the scale of enterprises, large enterprises are higher than 50%; medium-sized enterprises are located at 50%; small and micro enterprises are less than 50%.

Production index rebounded slightly.

This month's production index was 51.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, tobacco products, textiles and clothing

10 industries, such as industry, automobile manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing, computer communication, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, were higher than 50%; ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, textile industry, metal products industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry and other 11 industries were below 50%.

The new export orders index and import index rebounded.

This month's new export orders index was 48.8%, up 2.2 percentage points from last month.

From the perspective of the industry, the 11 industries of non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, computer communication and electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, textile and garment industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry and so on are higher than 50%; the metal products industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, textile industry and ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry and other 10 industries are below 50%.

Import index was 47.7% this month, up 0.7 percentage points from last month.

From the point of view of the industry, 7 industries, such as computer communication, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, are higher than 50%, while metal products, special equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries are below 50% in 14 industries.

Finished product inventory index declined.

Production this month

The index is 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, 6 industries, such as paper printing, culture and education, beauty and entertainment products manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials, chemical products manufacturing, and so on, are higher than 50%. The 2 industries of agricultural and sideline food processing and general equipment manufacturing are located at 50%; the 13 industries of non-metallic mineral products, metal products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are below 50%.

The purchase price index picked up.

The purchase price index was 51% this month, up 4.9 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, 10 industries, such as petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products industry, are over 50%, while ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, metal products industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry and other 11 industries are below 50%.

From the regional perspective, the eastern and northeastern parts are above 50%, while the central and western regions are below 50%.

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Survey of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers, which covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation. It is one of the leading indicators in the world to monitor the macroeconomic trend. It has strong prediction and early warning effect.

PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of manufacturing industry, while less than 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy.

2. scope of investigation

Involving 31 industries in the manufacturing industry of the national economic classification (GB/T4754-2011), 820 samples from the whole country were surveyed.

3. survey methodology

The purchasing managers of manufacturing industry investigated the adoption of PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking the manufacturing industry as the main category, and the industry sample size was allocated according to the added value of the total manufacturing value, and the sample within the layer was extracted from the probability of proportion to the main business income of the enterprise.

The survey conducted a monthly questionnaire survey on purchasing managers of enterprises by direct online survey.

4. calculation method

The questionnaire survey of manufacturing purchasing managers involves 11 questions: production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, raw material inventory, employees and supplier delivery time.

The diffusion index is calculated for each problem, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same question.

PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting the 5 diffusivity index (classification index).

The 5 classification indices and their weights are determined according to their impact on the economy.

Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%.

Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly.

The PMI composite index and the classification indices are all seasonally adjusted.