Textile And Garment Industry: Three Quarterly Performance Forecast And Fourth Quarter Strategy

The contents of this issue are as follows:

A week's main review: 1. Industry tracking: (1) the sales performance of 100 large retail enterprises is generally in the golden week.

100 retail sales grew by 15.23% over the same period last year.

The "eleven" double section superposition, the retail sales volume of 100 large scale retail enterprises increased by 8.49% over the same period last year. In recent years, the sales growth rate of the eleven golden week was below 10% for the first time, of which 39 large retail enterprises sold less than the same period last year, showing a negative growth year-on-year.

2. 1-9 months in China

Clothing exports increased by 0.54%, reversing the previous downward trend.

2, company tracking: (1) three quarterly performance forecast: we expect that the key performance of textile and garment companies in 2012 will be basically consistent with the expected performance of the three quarterly reports, of which the home textile and Chinese newspaper are basically flat, while textile manufacturing enterprises have slightly improved but their performance is still lower than expected.

Since the three quarter, the sale of goods in autumn and winter has led to a rebound in terminal sales.

From the sub industry perspective, men's clothing companies are relatively robust, with a quarterly growth rate of 30%-40% expected to reach three. The performance is in line with expectations; casual wear and home textile enterprises still face greater operating pressure, performance is lower than expected; demand for export manufacturing enterprises continues to be weak, and domestic and foreign cotton price scissors difference squeezes the profit margins of enterprises, and performance is lower than expected, and the possibility of industry recovery in the short term is expected to be small.

From the company's performance, three quarterly reports were lower than expected: Hinur (002485), YOUNGOR (600177), Jia Lin Jie (002486), and American bond.

(002269), Semir clothing (002563), Luo Lai home textiles (002293), Meng Jie home textiles (002397), Saturday (002291), Lu Tai A, Huafu color spinning (002042), Weixing shares (002003), Bailong Oriental (601339), and the other companies' performance is in line with expectations.

2. Pathfinder (300005) three quarterly earnings forecast: the company's revenue in the first three quarters is 45%, total profit increased by 78.5%, net profit increased by 51%.

The total profit increased substantially last year, mainly due to the fact that the three quarterly report of the company made more provision for inventory impairment in 2011 (a total loss of assets impairment loss of 8 million 240 thousand), resulting in a smaller base.

The company calculated the income tax costs in the first three quarters at a rate of 25%, making the net profit growth much lower than the total profit increase.

Last week, the textile and garment sector was stronger than the market.

Textile and apparel index rose 2.44%, relative to Shen Wan A index rose 1.35%.

Among them, the textile manufacturing index rose 3%, relative to Shen Wan A index rose 1.91%; clothing home textile index rose 1.97%, relative to Shen Wan A index rose 0.88%.

Industry basic data: (1) mid autumn 2012 and National Day Golden Week retail market sales increased by 8.49% over the same period, while retail sales of food, clothing and cosmetics grew by 13.24%, 15.23% and 17.69% respectively. The growth rate of household appliances and jewellery and jewellery was relatively low, 1.3% and 2.42% respectively.

2. In 1-9 months, China's textile and garment exports increased by 0.54%, of which 0.7% of clothing exports and 0.2% of textile exports.

Last week, the price of cotton and chemical fiber decreased slightly: domestic 328 spot spot reported 18671 yuan / ton last week, and Zheng Mian's main contract fell 19405 yuan / ton.

PET staple fell 1.5% to 11080 yuan / ton, viscose staple fell 3.3% to 14700 yuan / ton, nylon yarn rose 0.5% to 21200 yuan / ton.

Our view: the retail market is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up, with good performance and low level of valuation.

Enterprises are still relatively cautious about export manufacturing enterprises.

We believe that the pessimism of the market has been magnified due to poor terminal sales, enterprise inventory risk and 2013 spring and summer orders will increase less than expected.

The overall sales slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year, and the base effect gradually reflected that the future retail market was slowly rising.

At present, the safety margin of the industry is gradually strengthened, and the men's clothing valuation is about 17 times that of 2012. The value of home textiles corresponds to 20 times that of 2012, which is at the bottom level. If the terminal consumption warming trend is established, with the further deterioration of the channel inventory, it is estimated that the valuation repair possibility is larger.

In the low stage of the industry, the spinning and weaving enterprises will focus on improving the management capability and cost control. It is estimated that the pressure of enterprise cost will gradually decrease in 2013, and the net profit margin will be improved.

Recommend three quarterly performance guaranteed men's wear faucet seven wolves, wedding bird and daily chemical giant Shanghai Jahwa (600315), high-end ladies dress posture (002612).