Consumption Continues To Slump, Home Textile Shop Growth Rate Low Expectations

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In the middle of the Binjiang Road, a more than 150 square meter of fuanna (002327) has just finished the so-called "most powerful" discount promotion in history, promoting leaflets and even from door to door to the door of nearby households.

On the opposite side of the road, which is less than 100 meters away from fuanna, a new "Meng Jie home textile (002397)" was opened. Why did it open in the market when it was not particularly prosperous, and it was also opened in a crowded section of the home textile shop (another 200 non listed home textile company from the shop was also being promoted urgently).

In terms of slowing down the pace of expansion, the lot is indeed a more important consideration.

Behind the discount promotion is home textile companies are not very good in 2012.

For the three home textile listed companies of fuanna, Meng Jie and Luo Lai, the first half of 2012 is definitely not a easy stage.

We first review the performance of these three companies from the figures.

Interim report on inventory turnover

Roley home textiles (002293) in the first half of 2012, the revenue was 1 billion 36 million, a slight increase of 3.31% over the same period last year. Net profit was 134 million, down 17.7% from the same period last year, slightly below market expectations.

In the first half of the year, the operating income of Meng Jie home textile reached 566 million yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 46 million 338 thousand yuan, and net profit after deducting non profits was 44 million 533 thousand yuan, up 2.1%, 11.27% and 5.45%, respectively.

The industry leader fuanna realized business income of 758 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% over the same period last year, realized a profit of 141 million yuan before interest tax, an increase of 29.2% compared to the same period last year, and realized the net profit of shareholders belonging to the listed company was 109 million yuan, up 27.6% over the same period last year.

Become the fastest growing one among the three.

Analysts said that the home textile industry was affected by real estate regulation, the growth of terminal demand slowed down, and the pressure of channel inventory was large.

Overall, home textiles are

Compared with the textile companies in the first half of the year, the net profit of domestic textile companies increased by 13% over the first half of the year, and the growth rate was better than that of the export manufacturing enterprises.

The three half of the first half of the performance differentiation, and also bear the same industry downturn, according to the financial weekly report, Roley, Meng Jie and fuanna in 2010 to 2012, three years, are facing the decline in inventory turnover situation, of which Roley home textiles inventory turnover rate is the most serious, fuanna's turnover rate is not high, the decline is relatively low.

Correspondingly, the company's accounts receivable turnover days, with the accumulation of downstream dealer inventory, inventory turnover is also getting slower.

Roley home textile gradually increased from 16 days in 2010 to 23 days in the middle of 2012.

Under the strategy of increasing growth rate of franchised stores faster than direct stores, the turnover days of accounts receivable also rose linearly, from 18 days in 2010 to 46 days in 2012. Fuyuan, the main battalion, had a relatively quick turnover, rising from 7 days in 2010 to 14 days in 2012.

Behind the high selling terminal inventory and the increased dealer remittance pressure, various companies are going to inventory strategy.

Recently, you can always see the advertisement of the home textile.

Waterloo's performance in the first half of 2012 has left many fund managers in the dark.

But this is something that can not be imagined two years ago.

If you hold it since 2009, it will increase your capital by about 70% a year. This is a gratifying scene in the early days of the listing.

After three years of rapid expansion, the home textile giant has entered a relatively stable period with the slowdown in economic growth.

The decline of industry boom also made the three companies start to show a clear differentiation.

The relationship between home textile industry consumption and real estate industry is relatively large. The proportion of migration, wedding and improvement needs in consumption is about 4:3:3.

Therefore, under the real estate regulation policy, it is even more difficult for the home textile industry to continue to maintain high growth.

Three quarterly report fuanna looks high

In 2012, for these three home textile giants, it was a year of market structure and business differentiation.

First, the speed of expansion: the new opening rate of the dream house is slower than last year.

According to statistics, there were 158 stores in the first half of last year (241 last year), including 25 direct outlets and 133 franchised stores.

Due to the obvious improvement in consumption terminals in 7 and August, companies and franchisees are becoming more cautious. It is expected that about 70 new businesses will be added. Zhu Lili, an analyst with Huatai Securities, "expects a net increase of about 350 a year."

In 2012, the order of order in autumn and winter was increased by 30%, and the growth rate was slowing down. Before Hu Zhenchao, the company secretary general secretaries made orders to rely mainly on franchisees, but the general orders accounted for only 60%~70% sales of franchisees, and the chamber of Commerce joined the goods on the basis of order.

In the face of the downturn in the industry, Fu also postponed the pace of expansion and spent idle funds on the purchase of financial products. In September 27th, the company announced that it had invested 50 million in the financial products of the Industrial Bank (601166) for one year.

From the pre disclosure of the three quarterly report, Luo Lai home textile net profit growth is expected to range from -15% to 15%, Meng Jie expects net profit growth of 0-30%, while fuanna's net profit is expected to grow 10-30% over the same period.

In 2012, Roley's home textile industry's retreat also let the seller's analysts begin to downgrade. In the report of August 13th, BOC gave the target price of 70 yuan for Roley home textiles, while the original target price was 80 yuan.

Obviously, in the A share market downturn, the home textile has no rebound power, its stock price has dropped to 42 yuan.

The three companies are now facing the same industry risk: excessive number of terminal outlets.

The growth rate is lower than expected, and the continuous downturn in consumption leads to the growth of inventory cycle.