Cotton Production Forecast And Picking Sale In September 2012

Project commitment: China Cotton Association Cotton farmers cooperative association, Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative

Monitoring objects: 13 cotton producing provinces, cities and districts, 2751 cotton growers.

In September 2012, the cotton association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative respectively surveyed cotton picking and sale of 2751 cotton farmers in 12 provinces of the mainland and 310 counties (cities and regiments) in Xinjiang autonomous region, and conducted fourth production tests. The survey results showed that: in September, the light temperature of most cotton regions in China was more suitable, which was more favorable for cotton cracking, bolting and picking and drying. Cotton picking time was ahead and progressing faster, and the picking progress was over half by the end of the month. The cotton farmers' sales progress was relatively slow. Despite the sluggish market, the selling price remained relatively stable under the support of purchasing and storage policy. In some areas, cotton has stopped growing and cotton output is basically settled. In addition to the impact of previous disasters on the two provinces of Shandong and Hebei, the output of the rest of the provinces has basically maintained its pre production level. The total output of cotton in the whole country is estimated to be 6 million 955 thousand tons, down 4.4% from the same period last year, a decrease of 19 thousand tons compared with August. For cotton production next year, cotton farmers generally believe that the price is still low, plus a long production cycle, high risk and high cost. The cotton planting area may continue to decrease in the coming year.

According to the cotton production predicted by farmers, picking and sales, the average picking rate of cotton growers was 54.7% at the end of September, 20.7 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year, and the turnover rate was 27.3%, an increase of 14.1 percentage points compared with that of the same period last year. The average selling price was 8.05 yuan / kg, down 0.1% over the same period last year.

In the middle and late 9 months of the the Yellow River River Valley, the weather is mainly sunny. cotton However, in the early part of September, the precipitation in some cotton areas was too much, which had a certain impact on cotton yield and quality. The two provinces in Shandong and Hebei have been slightly reduced due to heavy damage in the early stage.

Affected by unfavorable weather conditions, the proportion of rotten peaches in the basin was relatively high, and some cotton appeared premature senescence. In the middle and upper part of the year, the cotton picking was more. In late ten days, the weather became better, and the cotton bolting and bolting were quickening, picking picking up obviously. By the end of the month, the average picking rate of the whole basin reached 59.4%, which was 18.3 percentage points faster than that of the same period. Except for Tianjin, the other provinces were close to or more than 60%. The early harvest of rotten peach cotton is more and the quality is poorer. The national temporary purchasing and storage policy has been launched, which has led to a slight increase in the overall purchasing price of cotton. Most cotton growers have sold the cotton picked earlier, and the sales progress is faster than last year. 9 cotton quality improved in the second half of the month, but the price did not rise significantly. Cotton farmers were reluctant to sell, and their sales slowed down. As of September 30th, the sales progress was 8%, an acceleration of 3.5 percentage points over the same period. Although the quality is not good, but because the price level has always been higher, the selling price is still higher than other cotton areas this year. The average selling price of cotton farmers in September was 8.17 yuan / kg, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year. However, cotton farmers reflect cotton prices below 10 yuan / kg, and the enthusiasm for cotton planting next year will drop sharply.

In the Yangtze River valley cotton area, most of the light and temperature in the month are suitable for cotton bolting and bolting, and the output of cotton is basically the same as before.

Because of the uneven drought and waterlogging in the basin, the cotton growing trend is quite different. In the early growth stage, some cotton areas were dry, the cotton growth was stagnant, the cotton plants were smaller, the bolls were less, and the maturity was earlier. Cotton pickled cotton in the early stage was dominated by rotten peaches, and the progress was faster. As of September 30th, the average annual picking rate of the whole river basin was 47.5%, up 15 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, of which two provinces in Hubei and Anhui had more than half. Jiangsu is a good year in recent years, with the slowest progress, less than 40%, and the rest of the provinces are close to 50%. Cotton farmers in this valley do not have the habit of storing cotton. They generally sell and sell, and the selling process is relatively fast. As of September 30th, the sales rate was 20.8%, an increase of 11.8 percentage points over the same period, and the selling price was relatively low. In September, the average sales rate was 7.97 yuan / kg, up 0.06% compared to the same period last year.

In September, the cotton growing area in Xinjiang was in the bloom stage, with plenty of light and heat, and cotton bolting and bolting and picking. Because of the good weather conditions in most parts of Xinjiang since the cotton planting this year, the cotton growth has been better. The harvest has become a foregone conclusion, and the growth period is ahead. Cotton picking time is earlier than that of previous years, picking speed is obviously quickening. At the same time, because of good quality and large reserves, the acquisition of enterprises and the sale of cotton farmers are more active, and have entered the rush hour of cotton purchasing and processing in advance. As of September 30th, the average picking rate in Xinjiang reached 54.5%, an acceleration of 25.9 percentage points over the same period, and the average turnover of cotton growers was 44.9%, an increase of 23.3 percentage points over the same period. The sale price of cotton farmers was higher at the beginning and later in the later stage. cottonseed The impact of price declines has slipped. The average linen percentage of seed cotton is 39% in the whole month, and the average selling price is 7.99 yuan / kg, down 0.51% from the same period last year, of which the place is higher than the Corps.