October 23, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] purchase and storage volume remains high

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20514 yuan / ton; 229 level 19641 yuan / ton; 328 level 18782 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17940 yuan / ton.

domestic

Product: polyester staple fiber 10900 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14890 yuan / ton; C32S price 25690 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 22, the price of domestic cotton spot market is still relatively stable. At present, the storage and storage accumulated more than 110 tons, up sharply compared with the same period last year.

The prices of downstream yarns are stable, the orders of individual enterprises have increased, the operating rate has slightly improved, but the fundamentals of the weak are still difficult to change.

3. imported cotton: in October 22nd, the price of imported cotton in China's main port varied. The prices of high-grade cotton and cotton in Australia were strong, and E/MOT cotton, West African cotton and India cotton fell.

In the past week, the price of cotton quotas has generally increased by 3-4 cents with ICE futures. This has reduced the possibility of full import of cotton from customs duties.

4. seed cotton purchase: last week (October, 12-18), the new cotton picking work in main producing areas has entered the late stage. The purchase price of seed cotton has been on the rise. The cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the overall sales progress is slow.

At present, the price difference between new cotton storage and spot sales is up to 1500 yuan / ton, and the 400 type enterprises have indicated that the processing of lint is mainly for storing and storing, taking various measures to actively purchase, increase seed cotton purchase quantity, and generally start processing at the same time, so as to carry out storage in advance, and withdraw funds as soon as possible.

5.ICE cotton: in October 22nd, the bull market speculation had already receded, the market was calm as before, ICE futures narrowed, and the December contract rose 5 points.

Summary:

In the downturn of global economic growth and the difficult problem of cotton demand in the long term, it is difficult to solve the three stage structure of cotton price in China market.

A few days ago, the market worried that the quality of the new cotton quality in the United States was too high, which could not generate warehouse receipts, and it was also difficult for textile mills to accept it. However, under the background of weak cotton demand and large inventory in China, the quality problem of US cotton was not enough to significantly affect cotton prices in China.

As the author said, the uplink of the United States cotton had a significant effect on the promotion of Zheng cotton, and zhengmian 1301 fell back in front of the high pressure.

Next, Zheng cotton is still dominated by a stable tone, with limited space to go up.

In the period of storage and purchase, there is also limited space. In the period of storage and purchase, the author focuses more on the strategy of lowering prices.

[German futures] return to the shock interval, Zheng cotton continues to adjust

On Monday, CF1301 was in a narrow concussion. CF1301 closed more than 5 hands, and its position increased slightly.

CF1301 closed at 19720 yuan / ton, down 0 yuan / ton, adding 338 hands; China's imports in October 22nd

(FC Index M) 87.22 cents / pound, down 0.28 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff 14112 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14938 yuan / ton.

According to New York's October 22nd news, the ICE cotton market edged up slightly on Monday, slightly underneath 77 cents. Due to a shortage of stocks, speculators and investors continued to build long positions in recent months.

The ICE12 monthly settlement price was 76.93 cents per pound, up only 0.07% on that day.

In October 22nd, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 13400 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 1040 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 59440 tons.

On the 22 day, the contract was opened up, with wide shocks within the day.

Basically, it is now in late October, regardless of cotton spot trading or yarn sales situation reflects that the market is still depressed and deserted.

Insiders feel that the market pressure is still large, and there is no confidence that the market will be better before the end of the year.

On Monday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion, returning to the concussion zone. The price was not increased by the time of the price rise. Instead, it reduced the position and made a profit.

Today's operation suggests that the empty list can continue to hold, and the reference price range of CF1301 is 19300-19700.

[MEIKO futures] enterprise to inventory is still the key period cotton pressure drop

Overnight, in October 22nd, the long wave of speculation had receded, and the market was calm. ICE futures narrowed in a narrow range, and the contract rose 5 points in December.

After a surge in cotton prices, demand for commodities will drop significantly, and the fundamentals will not be good enough.

News: according to the India General Administration of foreign trade, the export volume of cotton yarn in India last year was 827 million 680 thousand kilograms.

According to the forecast of India Cotton Advisory Committee, the export volume of India cotton yarn is 920 million kilograms this year.

In the international market, 22 days, the price of imported cotton in China's main port varied. The prices of high-grade cotton and cotton in Australia were strong, and E/MOT cotton, West African cotton and India cotton fell.

In the past week, the price of cotton quotas has generally increased by 3-4 cents with ICE futures. This has reduced the possibility of full import of cotton from customs duties.

At present, the number of cotton and bonded cotton has been significantly reduced. Considering the outstanding problems of the new high-grade cotton in the United States, the recent high-grade cotton quotation is likely to remain strong.

The domestic market, 22, the domestic cotton spot market prices are still relatively stable, the current storage and storage accumulated more than 110 tons, up sharply compared with the same period last year, due to stable quality of cotton enterprises, and active storage.

The prices of downstream yarns are stable, the orders of individual enterprises have increased, the operating rate has improved slightly, but the fundamentals of the weak are still difficult to change.

In October 22nd, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 84100 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 1238090 tons in 2012, including 275250 tons in the mainland and 962840 tons in Xinjiang.

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Spot quotation, October 22nd, the US C/A cotton 90.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15361 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 97.60, discount general trade port delivery price 16295 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 86.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14798 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15107 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14737 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19645 yuan / ton; the B index is 18790 yuan, rising by 2 yuan.

Market analysis, highlighting the quality of the new cotton in the United States, resulting in a smaller increase in the number of warehouse receipts, so that speculative investors see the opportunity to promote the ICE US cotton prices upward, China's full tariff cotton at the current price of the import window has been closed, then drag on the continued upward movement of the price weakened.

After the completion of China's acquisition and storage, the huge inventory needs to be digested for a long time.

There is a large number of sell-off on the 80 front of the outside market. Once the effective breakthrough period can not be formed, the price will fall.

On the operation, we should carefully hold the test water and watch the 19595 support.

[Wanda futures] is expected to make the United States cotton prices are mixed.

On Monday, ICE cotton futures mixed each other, the main contract in December rose 0.05 cents to 76.93 cents / pound, although still under 77 cents / pound pressure, but the market for the December contract is not expected to break the contract, because the new cotton meet the delivery ratio is lower than the same period of the same period, ICE cotton stocks are at a low level in history, December positions remain high, speculative funds continue to increase the number of contracts in recent months, this is expected to continue to push up cotton prices.

However, the forward contracts will suffer from the pressure of supply and weakness of consumption caused by the new cotton listing. They will not pay attention to the forward contracts and pay attention to the suppression effect of 77 cents / pounds on the ICE cotton forward contracts.

Monday ICE cotton main December contract rose slightly, but still closed at 77 cents / pound, the short-term average line system turned upwards, KD and MACD index continued to rise in a row, the MACD index red column began to grow, the rebound trend did not change, cautiously looked at Zhang ICE cotton, pay attention to December contract 77 cents / pound pressure level.

Recently, there is no sign of improvement in the domestic downstream consumer market. Although sales of high count yarn in some parts of the country are acceptable, sales of 32S products are slowing down, which has hurt the enthusiasm of textile enterprises.

Although China's purchasing and storage is supporting the domestic cotton price, but the new cotton of the United States and India are listed on the market, and the output of India is expected to be the same as last year. This will put pressure on the international cotton price. At present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is still at a high level. Chinese products are not competitive in the international market, and the spinning enterprises are more interested in imported cotton and cotton yarn.

It is hard to get the initiative to buy and support.

Therefore, the lack of capital and basic support, Zheng cotton does not have the foundation to get rid of the long-term weak and substantial rise, pay attention to the 1301 contract 20000 yuan / ton pressure position and 19700 yuan / ton support position, and continue to increase the empty list at the high.