October 19, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] Zheng cotton will pay attention to high pressure in the short term.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20514 yuan / ton; 229 level 19641 yuan / ton; 328 level 18782 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17940 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10900 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14890 yuan / ton; C32S price 25690 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 18 day, the market was affected by the rebound of the US cotton, while Zheng cotton futures rose sharply for two consecutive days, but the domestic spot market remained weak and the price was running smoothly. Although cotton production in some parts of the country has been cut down this year, the demand for cotton in the downstream textile market is equally low, and the overall balance between supply and demand is still weak.

3. cotton imports: in October 18th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose across the board. Most varieties rose to 3 cents, while the United States cotton and India cotton rose 1.25 cents and 0.5 cents respectively. As the price continues to rise sharply, the spot market is more calm, textile mills are reluctant to catch up with high procurement.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: in October 17th, China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 116100 tons of cotton in 2012, and the actual turnover is 78220 tons, with a turnover rate of 67.37%. As of October 17th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 1002180 tons, of which 204900 tons were traded in the mainland and 797280 tons in Xinjiang.

5.ICE cotton: in October 18th, ICE cotton fell sharply after the December contract, and it closed at 77.72 cents / pound. The technology showed a sign of high fatigue. The hype of new cotton quality in the United States is hard to sustain.

Summary:

In the downturn of global economic growth and the difficult problem of cotton demand in the long term, it is difficult to solve the three stage structure of cotton price in China market. USDA and the WASDE released in October 11th further reduced the demand for cotton in China in 2012/13. The background of the "three order theory" has not changed. At present, the market is worried that the quality of the new cotton quality in the United States is too high, which can neither generate warehouse receipts nor be difficult for the textile mills to accept. However, under the background of weak cotton demand and large inventory in China, the quality problem of the US cotton is not enough to significantly affect the cotton price in China. Although the U.S. cotton volume rose sharply, but the recent Zheng cotton lifting effect is limited, zhengmian 1301 pay attention to the former high pressure.

[MEIKO futures] stage many factors difficult to change trend, internal and external disk approaching the key trend pressure

Overnight, ICE cotton prices fell slightly on Thursday, down from the five month high, trading in a wide range of intraday trading, because investors locked in profits after soaring prices, the cotton contract in December fell 0.18% or 0.14 cents, at 77.72 cents per pound, cotton futures trading earlier hit a four month high, but then once down, and then again pulled back most of the decline.

News: 1, the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in September 2012, clothing shoes The total retail sales of hats and knitwear amounted to 80 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 20.4% over the same period last year, a decrease of 7.2 percentage points over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from August 2012. 2, the US cotton export weekly (2012.10.5-11) week, the 2012/13 net annual volume of US cotton exports was 46 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 71% over last week, an increase of 20% over the past 4 weeks, and 90 thousand tons of selective shipment orders that had not yet been shipped, including 78 thousand tons in China.

In the international market, 18 days, the price of China's main cotton imports rose across the board, and most varieties rose to 3 cents, while the United States cotton and India cotton rose 1.25 cents and 0.5 cents respectively. As the price continues to rise sharply, the spot market is more calm, and textile mills are reluctant to catch up with high procurement. Before that, the textile factory will maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

The domestic market, 18, the market was affected by the rebound of the US cotton, Zheng cotton futures rose sharply for two consecutive days, but the domestic spot market was still slack and prices were running smoothly. Although cotton production in some parts of the country has been cut down this year, the demand for cotton in the downstream textile market is equally low, and the overall balance between supply and demand is still weak.

In October 18th, 77300 tons of cotton temporary storage and storage were put into operation in October 18th. As of that date, the total turnover of 1079480 tons in the current year, of which 225480 tons in the mainland and 854000 tons in cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton is on the rise. Cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the overall sales progress is slow. At present, the price difference between new cotton storage and spot sales is up to 1500 yuan / ton, and the 400 type enterprises have indicated that the processing of lint is mainly for storing and storing, taking various measures to actively purchase, increase seed cotton purchase quantity, and generally start processing at the same time, so as to carry out storage in advance, and withdraw funds as soon as possible.

Spot quotation, 18 days, C/A cotton 90.85 (cents / pound, the same below). The general trade port delivery price is 15381 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation), Australia cotton 98.85, discount general trade port delivery price 16460 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 92.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15576 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 89.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15248 yuan / ton; India cotton 88.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15031 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index was 19645 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan; the B index was 18788 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, highlighting the quality of new cotton in the United States, resulting in a smaller increase in the number of warehouse receipts, so that speculative investors see the opportunity to promote the ICE cotton futures price uplink. However, as the number of new cotton increases in the late period, the weakness of warehouse receipts will disappear. And China's demand is weak, the import volume is expected to halve, and the huge inventory needs to be digested for a long time after the completion of the purchase and storage. There is a large number of sell-off on the 80 front-line overnight. Once the effective breakthrough period can not be formed, the price will fall. Zheng cotton continues to detect high pressure ahead.

Operation, short and more cautious holding, look at the pressure near the high performance, lack of kinetic energy to consider backhand to test the water. {page_break}

[Wanda futures] more single profit open to cotton cotton callback

In the week ending October 11th, the United States exported 46765 tons of cotton this year and shipped 187 million 790 thousand tons, of which China signed 220 million 670 thousand tons. After two straight days of rising, some of the more profitable positions were blocked as the fundamentals remained weak. In December, the contract fell 0.14 cents to 77.72 cents / pound, but still stood 77 cents / pound. There is still concern about the tension of the US cotton delivery resources. The strength of the recent contract may continue. It is not ruled out that the December contract will be able to challenge the strong pressure level of 84 cents / pound.

Thursday ICE cotton slight callback, but the main contract in December is still stable 77 cents / pound and the short-term average, the short-term average line turns upward, KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in weak areas, the MACD index red column growth, the rebound trend does not change, the December contract is expected to challenge the strong pressure level of 84 cents / pound.

The US cotton warehouse is expected to increase, and the cotton reserve price will continue to rise, but this will not change the fact that the global stock will reach 17 million 220 thousand tons at the end of the year. At the same time, the economic downturn in the eurozone has led to a slowdown in the consumption pattern, and the fundamentals do not support the rise in cotton prices. Zheng cotton's rise has not been supported by funds. Textile enterprises are still mainly going to inventory management, and the price difference between domestic and foreign enterprises is high. Textile enterprises are more interested in imported cotton and cotton yarn, and Zheng cotton has no attraction for them. Therefore, lack of funds and basic support, Zheng cotton does not have the basis to get rid of the long term weak rise. It pays attention to the 1301 contract 20000 yuan / ton pressure level and 19700 yuan / ton support position, such as 20000 yuan / ton pressure level has been verified, and continue to increase the blank list is appropriate.

[one German futures] continued to jump upward.

Thursday CF1301 high concussion, CF1301 closed more than 16.5 million hand trading, positions sharply reduced. CF1301 closed at 19820 yuan / ton, up 215 yuan / ton, reduced 13294 hand; in October 18th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 87.73 cents / pound, up 1.65 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14193 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14997 yuan / ton.

According to New York's October 18th news, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton prices fell slightly on Thursday, down from the five month high, trading in a wide range of intraday trading, because investors locked in profits after soaring prices. The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.18% or 0.14 cents at 77.72 cents a pound.

In October 18th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 17200 tons, an increase of 430 tons over the previous transaction, an increase of 780 tons in orders and an aggregate purchase of 88620 tons. On the 18 day, the contract was basically opened up, and the concussion increased. On the basic level, recently, the quality of foreign cotton has risen sharply due to the worry about the quality of US cotton. Meanwhile, the state's purchasing and storage efforts have been further increased, which will support the domestic cotton prices. However, the economic situation is not optimistic, textile demand has not changed significantly, and the rise in cotton prices may increase the use of chemical fiber. In addition, cotton is still in the harvest period, and a large number of cotton will be listed, and some areas will be difficult to store. Some of the cotton will flow into the market and impact on cotton prices. This will limit the possibility of a sharp rise in cotton prices.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton was at a high concussion. Once again, it jumped to a higher level to break through the concussion zone. However, continuous air skating is like a castle in the air. There is a pressure of callback. If there is more than one suggestion, the profit will leave. At this stage, the fundamentals do not support excessive rise. Today's operation advice, temporary observation, radical Investment You can enter a small amount of empty, CF1301 reference price range of 19400-19800.