PTA: Crude Oil Supply And Demand Is Loose And Short-Term Trend Is Somewhat Difficult.

In the past month, crude oil prices have broken through the $100 mark, and the market has broken through $90.

The main factor affecting the crude oil futures price outlook is that the president Obama, who is currently feeling tight, is likely to intervene in oil prices. Geopolitical problems support the trend of crude oil to a certain extent; the progress of facilities maintenance in Beihai oilfield is slow.

Analysts say the US crude oil is still in a "dilemma" pattern in the short term, and downstream industries as well.

Species will also maintain market share.

The 100 yuan juncture is heavily pressurized.

From the US Federal Reserve's QE3 boots landing, the US crude oil continued to rise. After a massive break through the US $100 mark, it quickly fell back, and then fell again and again. During the national day, it fell below the $90 mark, and then quickly resumed its lost territory.

Feng Xiao, an analyst with Nanhua futures oil, said that in addition to the obvious drop in demand, the trend of crude oil led to three aspects: first, the news of the US election day was stimulated; the United States always had strong voice in the international crude oil market, and now it is just the US general election. At present, the president Obama, who is eager to win the election, is likely to intervene in oil prices.

Secondly, the situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense. The conflict between Syria and Turkey is becoming more and more intense. In addition, the Iran issue remains unresolved. Geopolitical problems support the trend of crude oil to a certain extent.

Again, the impact of Beihai oilfield maintenance; information shows that the slow progress of facilities maintenance in Beihai oilfield is also one of the important factors of premium increase.

Anxin futures energy analyst Hu Huaqian said that from the trend of crude oil in recent months, the launch date of QE3 has become the "watershed" of international crude oil prices.

At the same time, due to the tense situation in the Middle East and Beihai oil field maintenance and further postponed restart, Brent crude oil trend is obviously strong, the United States crude oil and Brent.

The gap widened further from around $16 a barrel to the current US $24 / barrel price gap, which has reached its highest level in nearly a year.

The short-term trend is somewhat difficult.

The International Energy Agency released the latest report, which will reduce the global oil demand growth by 100 thousand barrels in the next two years. It believes that the worsening global economic conditions will curb oil demand.

The agency said that due to slower global demand growth and increased oil production in North America and the Middle East, the world's oil supply will be ample in the next five years.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Intelligence Agency recently released a crude oil inventory report showing that US crude oil inventories remained high, and last week US domestic oil output hit a 17 year high.

Feng Xiao said that under the relatively stable global supply situation, the focus of oil prices will move down in the next two months.

As for the trend of the difference between Brent and the US crude oil price, in the short term, the conflict between Syria and Turkey in the Middle East situation and the output problem of Beihai are more significant for Brennan oil price, while the US crude oil inventory is still at the highest level in 10 years. Therefore, the price difference between the crude oil and the US crude oil in the near future will remain at about 20 US dollars in Turkey.

However, Hu Huaqian said,

Between geopolitical risk and demand outlook is uncertain. In the short term, the international crude oil price trend is generally more stalemate, and is in a "dilemma" pattern. However, with the end of the phase of the concussion market and the peak of winter oil consumption, the fourth quarter will usher in a wave of rising prices. The US crude oil does not exclude the challenge of another 100 US dollar front-line pass.

Chemical industry linkage oscillation

Hu Huaqian believes that the trend of domestic energy and chemical industry in the fourth quarter is also more tangled, maintaining a high probability of wide adjustment.

On the one hand, the global liquidity tends to be loose. China's ministries and commissions and local governments continue to introduce a "stable and stable" stimulus policy. The US crude oil has strong support in the US $90 line, and the price of the US dollar has dropped further. But on the other hand, the domestic economy is still in a declining channel, and the market demand has not improved significantly.

Feng Xiao said that for the specific trend of varieties, first, the recent decline in PTA stocks, coupled with their own larger gap, which makes the trend for a relatively recent period of strong, but because the supply and demand of crude oil is still in a relaxed situation, coupled with the new PTA production capacity and the end of the maintenance of the impact of the end of the inspection, PTA back market greater probability.

Two, plastic period price support point is relatively single, and crude oil futures price formation strong correlation.

However, because of the severe export situation, or the total demand for plastic products will shrink, overcapacity will undoubtedly add to the price of plastics.