October 25, 2012 Cotton PTA Early View Point

Last week, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States changed by +589.6 million barrels, estimated at +180 million barrels, the former value of +286 million barrels.

An industrial survey on Wednesday showed that manufacturing in the US has improved slightly in October, but growth is still slow, and economic uncertainty indicates recent developments. manufacturing industry The struggle will continue until the end of 2012. Markit data showed that the initial PMI value of manufacturing in October rose to 51.3, and the final value in September was 51.1. The market is expected to be 51.5.

The euro area composite PMI initial value dropped to 45.8 in October, with an expected value of 46.5 and a final value of 46.1 in September. October readings fell for the third consecutive month, and the 40 month low. From the national perspective, the German PMI comprehensive output contracted moderately, and the contraction degree in October was heavier than that in September, but it was better than in July and August. However, the degree of contraction in France is still relatively serious, which is only milder than in September, indicating that France is still in the steepest downward trend since the beginning of 2009. Apart from France and Germany, the other members of the euro zone have fallen at an average rate of the fastest since May.

Cotton in early view:

On Wednesday, ICE cotton went up and down and reported the big line. The main contract in December fell 1.65 cents to 72.67 cents / pound. The average price is weak on the EMA system. Zhengmian 1301 contract closed on Wednesday afternoon, closing at 19575 points, down 85 points from the previous trading day. The top twenty are 1178 to 58752 hands, adding 181 to 72650 hands. In general, the air force still has a slight advantage. Technically, the short-term price is weak, but at the same time, the underlying support is strong. The price in the future is expected to challenge the strong support level of 19400 yuan / ton. Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 938 (of which 263 Xinjiang cotton), 6 fewer than the previous day (0 Xinjiang cotton, 6 inland cotton), 13 effective forecasts. In terms of fundamentals, domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 18701 (+1), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 85.91 cents / pound (-1.31), 1% tariff 13903 yuan / ton, discount slip quasi tax to 14771 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -3930 yuan / ton.

The main cotton areas in the United States are in good weather and picking work is proceeding more smoothly. India has been unable to meet the demand for new flower purchases because of the tight stock and the delayed purchase of new flowers in some areas. China's domestic cotton market remains stable, and the spot market is mainly based on national storage. cotton The current market has shown a relative decline. Therefore, the author suggests that the domestic cotton futures market should not be overlooked during the policy period.

As of 24, 2012 tons of cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 1395770 tons in 2012. The total turnover of Xinjiang was 1066040 tons, and the total turnover of the mainland was 329730 tons. Operation suggestion: CF1301 relies on 19400 yuan / ton first line to do more and more money. Every callback is single step by step, and falls below 19400 yuan / ton.

　　 Early view PTA:

Overnight, the WTI crude oil opened up and went down to explore the weak line. The main contract system in December kept a short order, and the short term disadvantageous market is expected to continue. The TA1301 contract closed on Wednesday, closing at 7850 points, up 88 points from the previous session. The top twenty were 5389 to 122900 hands, adding 21045 hands to 138595 hands, and the overall strength of the air side was slightly superior. The short term market is still weak in terms of technology graphics, and the price is higher in the 7900 yuan / ton line. On the spot: PX external: $1564 / ton (-2), PTA external disk: $1093 / ton (-2), PTA inner disk: 8290 yuan / ton (+10), MEG external disk: 1070 USD / ton (-13), MEG inner disk: 8050 yuan / ton (-90), polyester chip: 10100 yuan / ton (-75).

Sinopec officially announced the contract price of polyester raw materials in October: PX11600, PTA8650, MEG8650 yuan / ton. October polyester chip contract price: semi gloss, glossy, industrial yarn chips for 10450 yuan / ton, total extinction section 11250 yuan / ton.

Xiang Lu petrochemical PTA contract settlement price in October, at 8650 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton from last month. Yisheng Petrochemical's PTA contract settlement price in October was 8650 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from last month.

PTA internal market rebounded with the futures rebound, and the focus of the talks rose slightly. However, the downstream polyester market is still weak and hard to change. The weakness of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester market is down, while the Fujian market is stable. However, there is still a moderate discount in the transaction. In terms of production and marketing, the market situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is slightly better, mainly due to the high production and marketing of POY. The short and short market is hard to change. market There is a drop in the quotations. It is expected that in the short term, the polyester and polyester market will still be narrowed. Operation suggestion: the PTA1301 contract is mainly based on the high interest rate, and the price will exceed 7900 yuan per ton.