Textile And Apparel Industry Forecast: The Industry Has Bottomed Out And The Market Has Begun To Digest Inventory.

From the basic performance, the industry has bottomed out, inventory problems plagued. Spin clothing More than a year has passed, and now it is slowly being digested by the market. This autumn and winter products are less expensive, some brands. Clothes & Accessories Or even choose a price reduction strategy.

Industry performance: industry performance, textile and clothing industry index rose 2.44%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3000 index 1.94, ranking seventeenth in the industry. Textile index rose 3%, clothing index rose 1.97%.

This week's performance of key companies: key companies this week: in addition to Jiaxin silk (002404) and hang min share (600987), other top companies are brand clothing companies, and this rebound is more accompanied by the general trend of dance, and the previous fall more, the company's quality is stable. Brand clothing Performance is also more prominent.

Industry key events: 1:9 month textile and garment export growth rate improved significantly. In the first 3 quarters, clothing exports amounted to $116 billion 60 million, an increase of 0.7%, and textiles 71 billion 50 million dollars, an increase of 0.2%; shoes Class 34 billion 630 million US dollars, an increase of 9.5%. Event 2: the NDRC announced yesterday that cotton import quotas will be 894 thousand tons next year, which will be equal to 12 years. Event 3: a survey of overseas fashion brands shows that 26% of the enterprises are ready to spanfer the factory from China to other countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, or even their own country. 40% of the enterprises say they are considering the withdrawal of the production plant from China.

Raw material prices: cotton, viscose and polyester prices remained stable this week, while Australian wool prices rose considerably. On the whole, cotton prices will remain stable in excess of supply, which will lead to a steady price of viscose and a downward trend in Australian wool prices.

Company research: Recently, we went to AOKANG International (603001) research. The following points are as follows: 1 and 7-9 months, the terminal sales situation is similar to that in the first half of the year. The same store sales are still maintained, reflecting that the sales situation of the stock store is relatively stable. 2, 12H1 added 408 stores. It is estimated that 300-400 new businesses will be opened in the Q3 quarter. 3, direct operation is the trend of the industry. In the near future, the company will consider the incorporation of individual dealers. The future direct operation will be conducive to the improvement of gross margin.

Investment advice: from the basic performance, the industry has bottomed out, and inventory problems have troubled textile and clothing for over a year, and now they are slowly being digested by the market.

This autumn and winter products are less expensive, and some brands even choose to cut prices. When the economic crisis has not subsided, it is the right way for downstream brands to choose the volume reduction strategy, which helps to boost consumer purchase intention and fundamentally improve terminal demand. From the valuation level, the current textile and garment sector has been in a relatively low historical level after a period of decline. From a long-term perspective, it has a certain investment value. Recently, in the backdrop of the market rebound, the brand clothing companies in the earlier stage were relatively resilient, which reflected the confidence of the market in the next year's downstream consumption. In view of the strong post cyclical nature of consumption and the absence of obvious signs of recovery in the economy, we maintain a neutral rating on the industry.