Viewing China'S Export Trade In 2013 From Canton Fair

Autumn 2012

It concluded in Guangzhou in November 4th.

Under the multiple backdrop of global economic recovery, the "European debt crisis" haze, the Sino Japanese Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute and China's own economic pformation, the total number of purchasers at the Canton Fair dropped by 10.3% compared with the previous session, and the export volume was 32 billion 680 million US dollars, down 9.3% from the same period last year, of which the turnover in the European market dropped by 10.5%, the export volume to the US decreased by 9.4%, and the export volume to Japan decreased by 36.6%.

In terms of commodities, the turnover of non essential necessities decreased significantly.

The total number of stuffed toys decreased by about 20%, and the turnover of daily necessities increased slightly.

The specific analysis of the country's source direction and product type of the paction order mainly shows three characteristics.

First, traditional markets in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan are sluggish, but emerging markets such as South America, Middle East and Africa are thriving and well performing.

Second, the traditional labor intensive processing products have fallen sharply, but the turnover of innovation and brand products has been increasing.

Third, the traditional export orders for products have been significantly reduced, but the technology, pipeline and even the export of the entire production equipment have increased.

The Canton Fair has always been called "barometer" and "wind vane" of China's foreign trade. According to the situation of this Canton Fair, 2013

The overall situation is not optimistic, but there are still characteristics of its development and bright spots for growth.

First, the era of rapid export growth will be gone forever.

The global financial crisis and the "European debt crisis" have dragged the world economy into a low growth era. The import demand of the US and the EU is difficult to sustain. The territorial dispute between China and Japan will impact bilateral trade. Under the situation that China's main export partners have "returned to industry" and trade conflicts with China, the "made in China" will inevitably encounter negative impacts and challenges from external demand.

On the other hand, China's domestic economy is at the crossroads of pformation. The sharp rise in labor costs and business operation costs has led to a gradual decline in export competitiveness of traditional labor-intensive products. China's manufacturing industry, which has advantages in processing trade and relying on low labor costs, is facing great challenges, and some of the processing trade and foreign capital enterprises have left China.

The background and development situation at home and abroad have determined that the golden age of China's rapid growth in foreign trade will never return.

Improving the quality and efficiency of trade and finding new growth points of foreign trade should become the direction of China's future foreign trade development.

Second, the trend of stabilization and recovery has gradually become clearer.

The overall situation of China's foreign trade in 2013 is not optimistic, but the situation of stabilization and recovery is clear.

This year's foreign trade data in September showed the trend initially. The total value of imports and exports increased by 6.3%, and exports increased by 9.9%. The scale of exports increased in a single month and imports increased by 2.4%.

There are three main factors to support the growth of export trade next year.

First, Europe and the United States

The economy is gradually recovering from the crisis, and the growth prospects of the US economy are improving, and the European debt crisis is steadily being resolved.

The good pfer of major trading partners in the economic situation has raised the demand for "made in China" to a certain extent.

Second, China's cooperation with emerging economies has been strengthened and trade relations are steadily increasing.

Third, the recently issued stable export trade policies, including simplified export tax rebate procedures and trade facilitation measures, are conducive to the development of China's foreign trade, and the promotion effect of policies will gradually appear.

Fourthly, political stability and loose monetary policy are conducive to the development of China's export trade.

2012 is a global election year. In 2013, the coming of the new government usually has more economic stimulus policies, and a more stable political environment is also beneficial to the growth of Global trade.

At the same time, the recent quantitative easing in the United States and the loose monetary policy effect of major developed economies will gradually appear in 2013, and will also benefit China's export to a certain extent.

Third, emerging markets will become a new highlight of exports.

The economic and trade cooperation and exchanges between China and the emerging market countries have made rapid progress in recent years. The bilateral and multilateral trade integration processes are accelerating, and the trade between them is growing gratifying.

China's exports to emerging economies such as Russia, Malaysia and Philippines have increased rapidly from the trade figures released in September.

At the Canton Fair, the BRICs of Russia and Brazil almost covered the European and American markets.

Emerging markets are increasingly becoming a new highlight of China's export trade growth. Promoting and expanding trade in emerging market countries is an important direction for future foreign trade.

Fourth, exports to developed economies will gradually pick up.

The European Union and the United States are China's most important trading partners.

From the current situation, China's exports to the United States have been recovering gradually with the recovery of the US economy, but due to the impact of the European debt crisis, exports to the EU have declined significantly and declined significantly.

At present, the European debt crisis is gradually easing down. With the gradual downturn of European economy, it may be beneficial to the development of China's export trade to a certain extent.

Therefore, China's exports to the developed economies in 2013 are expected to gradually pick up.

Fifth, the export share of independent brand products will continue to increase.

Expanding the export of independent brand products is an important aspect of China's foreign trade quality upgrading and pformation in the future.

The value added products of OEM and processing trade are low, and the trade benefits are small. But they occupy half of China's export trade. With the upgrading of labor costs in China, the competitiveness has been gradually lost and not sustainable.

The future direction of China's foreign trade development is mainly to increase the export of independent brand products.

From the statistics of China's customs import and export trade in recent months, the export of processing trade products has been declining, but general trade has maintained a relatively rapid growth, and the proportion of independent brand exports has been gradually improving.

Judging from the situation of the Canton Fair, the trend of innovation and brand volume turnover is a bright spot.

According to the survey of the Minmetals chemical industry association, buyers prefer the brand exhibition products. The total turnover is 371 million US dollars, which is 21.6% higher than that of the previous period. At the same time, the high value-added products are also the main force of the paction.

Take GREE electric as an example, although the Canton Fair is totally deserted, its turnover is nearly 300 million US dollars, representing an increase of about 20% compared with the same period last year.

This shows that China's export of innovative products with its own brand has potential for development.

Sixth, trade structure adjustment and upgrading will be carried out in an orderly and orderly way.

China's export trade structure has come to a stage of adjustment and upgrading.

The structural adjustment in 2013 and in the future is mainly in the following aspects: first, in general trade and processing trade, the competitiveness of processing trade products gradually decreases, and the proportion of general trade will steadily increase. The export of general trade products is the focus and direction of development.

Secondly, on the general trade products, the export of low value-added labor intensive products will be gradually reduced, and the export of high value-added capital and technology intensive products will continue to increase.

Thirdly, in the direction of foreign trade, exports to developed countries are still the main direction, but exports to emerging markets and developing countries will also increase gradually.