The Influence Of The Quantity Of Goods Purchased And Stored On The Cotton Price Is Weak Or Mainstream

　　 cotton (19110, 5.00, 0.03%) The main contract moved 1305. Although the imagination space of 1305 contract increased, the trading volume and position continued to be low, and the cotton price continued to be weak and volatile. The national purchase and storage have made orderly progress, the domestic cotton price is relatively strong, Xinjiang cotton auction continues, the foreign cotton price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the cotton price fluctuates weakly in a balanced pattern. At the present stage, the cotton price is mainly affected by the purchase and storage and the export price. The expected factors, such as dumping and storage, quotas, and 2013 cotton purchase and storage policies, are also the focus of future cotton price changes.

1、 The economic environment is strong inside and weak outside, and the impact on cotton prices is limited

The US economy is slowly recovering, the effect of Obama's new policy remains to be observed, and the fiscal cliff problem gradually emerges; The European debt crisis haunted, and the economic growth was sluggish. The Greek problem became the focus again. China's national economy is running smoothly. The data in September and October show positive signs. The economy in the fourth quarter is mainly stable; The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held, and political changes affected economic decision-making, so the overall possibility of progress was high. The macro environment is strong inside and weak outside. There are plenty of negative speculation topics, but the overall focus is on stability. The basic area of cotton has been weak for a long time, and it is difficult to drift with the tide in a relatively stable environment.

2、 The purchase and storage of cotton are carried out orderly, and the quantity of purchase and storage affects the cotton price

As of November 12, 2012, a total of 2425070 tons of cotton was temporarily collected and stored, 1580120 tons were collected and stored in Xinjiang, and 716230 tons were collected and stored in the mainland. In 2011, 3.12 million tons of cotton were collected and stored, 300000 tons of old cotton were stored, and 1 million tons of foreign cotton were stored. The total national reserve stock was about 4.42 million tons. In September this year, nearly 500000 tons were dumped and stored. At present, the national reserve stock is about 6.34 million tons. The sky high inventory is the ceiling of the rise in cotton prices, but a large number of high-quality cotton is included in the national storage. Under the condition of a certain quota, the price of good flowers will be relatively strong.

At this stage, the quantity of cotton purchased and stored is not enough to shake the trend of cotton prices. With the orderly arrival of the purchase and storage work, space for time, the purchase and storage effect of adjusting supply and demand with inventory will gradually appear. The cotton 1305 contract is difficult to rise in the short term, but the possibility of a sharp decline is not very great.

3、 Variable factors in the balanced pattern - cotton price

The weak fundamentals of cotton have not changed much. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the latest forecast of global cotton production, sales and stock in 2012/13: global output increased by 111000 tons; Consumption decreased by 118000 tons, including 109000 tons in China; The ending inventory was 17.477 million tons, an increase of 253000 tons.

At this stage, the price of foreign cotton is greatly affected by external factors, and the overall fluctuation range is greater than that of Zheng Mian. Although the difference between internal and external prices is difficult to eliminate in the short term, the change of external cotton is a variable factor in the price balance pattern of Zheng cotton.

However, the price change of foreign cotton at this stage is largely affected by cotton from India and other big countries policy influence. India's cotton policy is likely to be hyped in the future. Recently, CAI estimated that the output of new flowers in India exceeded 6 million tons, and asked the government to cancel the limit of up to 10000 bales (1700 tons) of cotton for a single export registration, and to cancel it together with the export registration application.

4、 Expected factors: dumping and storage, quota, and 2013 cotton storage policy

With the progress of cotton storage, there may be a temporary shortage of high-quality cotton supply in the new year. The country is more likely to consider discarding storage than to liberalize quota imports. When cotton is dumped and stored, the quantity and price of dumped and stored cotton will directly affect the trend of cotton price. The cotton 1305 contract is more likely to be in the period of dumping storage, so the later dumping storage will be the focus of policy.

At the end of the 2012 cotton harvest and storage, the country is likely to introduce the 2013 cotton policy. At present, China is less likely to directly adopt the policy of subsidizing cotton, and more likely to continue the policy of purchasing and storing. The cotton 1305 contract, the cotton 1309 contract and the cotton 1401 contract have a greater chance of arbitrage.

5、 The cotton price is independent, and the shock is weak or mainstream

The macro environment is strong inside and weak outside, Cotton price It is limited by the macro environment in the near future. In terms of the progress of purchase and storage, the price change of foreign cotton is indeed the key factor for the recent price change of Zheng cotton, and the expected factors such as dumping and storage, quotas, and the new year's purchase and storage policies can not be underestimated. At this stage, cotton 1305 continues to be dominated by weak shocks, focusing on the narrow range of 19000-19300 shocks in the day. It is not suitable to participate in more than one order, and the value of enterprises' participation is small. Pay attention to the effectiveness of 19000 support in operation. If it falls below 1900018500-18700, it will be a good buying point for cotton 1305 in the near future.