Mainland Futures November 21, 2012 Cotton Market Morning Report

[international spot]

In November 20th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port fell by 0.75 cents.

Recently, demand in the international market is showing signs of recovery.

The factories have been replenishing stocks by the drop of cotton prices, and the demand for major cotton markets is relatively active, which provides support for international cotton prices.

Taking into account the uncertainty of policy next year, the current textile enterprises purchase mainly from the end of the year before and after the arrival of foreign cotton, long-term orders are not ideal.

Analysts believe that if ICE can continue to stabilize near 70 cents, spot demand will continue to flow.

[International Futures]

In November 20th, ICE cotton fell 1% after falling two days ago, as traders turned to focus on China's strong consumption and global production reduction next spring.

The ICE's most active December cotton futures CTZ2 settlement price rose 0.45 cents to 72.05 cents per pound. The broker pointed out that the first notice day on Friday and the December extension before the contract expired put pressure on prices.

[domestic stock]

In November 20th, domestic cotton quotas continued to rise. The national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 class cotton prices in the mainland was 197-8 yuan / ton, up 18 yuan compared with 19 days. The national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland was 18867 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan compared with 19 days.

[domestic futures]

In November 20th, Zheng cotton picked up the bottom of the market in early trading, and broke through the 5 day moving average once in the middle of the day. But due to the obvious pressure above, the cotton price was again under pressure, and the end of the stock market was rising and falling.

Among them, CF1301 contract average price 19685 yuan, rose 40 yuan; CF1305 contract average price 19090 yuan, fell 60 yuan; CF1307 contract average price 19115 yuan, fell 95 yuan, the market total turnover 68886 hands, compared with the previous trading day increased 21134 hands, accumulative position 307062 hands, reduces the 2882 hand.

[cotton information]

Hebei: the five grade cotton prices are rising at the bottom, and the acquisition of cotton enterprises has intensified.

This week, the acquisition of cotton grade five cotton in Hengshui and Cangzhou of Hebei province has been carried out in an orderly way. According to the two cotton processing enterprises, cotton growers have made positive progress in their sales, and the progress of their purchases has increased significantly.

According to a person in charge of a Hengshui enterprise, the local purchase is obviously more lively than before. In the early morning of November 20th, there were more than 20 cotton cars waiting in front of their enterprises, an increase of 10% over yesterday.

On the same day, the mainstream price of the local 5 grade cotton was 3.65-3.70 yuan / jin (lint 36.5%-37%, lint up and down 1%, price fluctuated around 0.1 yuan), the overall price level rose 0.05 yuan / Jin compared with 19 days.

Up to now, the company has processed more than 3000 tons of lint, and more than 70% have completed the storage.

And cotton farmers in other parts of the country are coming to Hengshui because of their knowledge of the acquisition of grade 5 cotton in Cangzhou and Hong Kong.

Jiangxi: cotton enterprises rush to harvest seed cotton to store and store, and spin enterprises sell cotton yarn.

Jiangxi cotton seed picking process has reached about 80%, and the acquisition rate of cotton enterprises accounts for about 60% of the picking amount, of which 4 grade cotton proportion is about 75%, and the local 400 type enterprises are able to ensure the storage and storage, and adopt the strategy of acquiring seed cotton after bidding first. In order to reach the quantity of storage and storage, the seeds of cotton seeds are springing up at a price of 4.37 yuan / kg (lint 39-40%), the price of flower price is 4.2 yuan / kg, the photon price is 1.11 yuan / Jin, the cotton enterprise's storage profit is close to 400 yuan / ton; the 3 grade real estate cotton spot price quoted is RMB yuan / ton (with the same ticket), and the bid price of the 3 class is between yuan yuan / ton, which is up about last week about RMB yuan / ton. As of November 20th,

Recently, the sales of cotton yarn in textile enterprises are still sluggish, and the funds are slow to return. The enterprises are trying to reduce the inventory of products. Many of them sell the yarn to the field sales enterprises. A local company sold to Zhejiang, with a turnover of about 500 thousand yuan, the cash settled only 100 thousand yuan, the remaining accounts were in 15-30 days, and the 40 cotton YISHION yarn was the best seller, the price was 28500 yuan / ton.

The profit can reach 1000 yuan / ton.

Shaanxi: cotton enterprises went to Xinjiang to buy seed cotton and did not store stored cotton in the market.

As of November 19th, the seed cotton picking rate in Shaanxi province has reached over 95%, the sales progress is about 80%, and the proportion of 3 grade seed cotton can reach about 80%.

With the listing of the tail flower, the quality of local cotton seed has declined. The price of the 3 grade seed cotton purchased by the 400 type enterprise is 4 yuan / jin (36% of lint and 14% of moisture content), which is down 0.1 yuan / Jin compared with last week, and the average daily purchase amount of cotton enterprises is 2-3 kilograms.

Some enterprises in order to meet the storage quantity, send staff to Xinjiang to buy seed cotton, the 3 class price in 4.1-4.2 yuan / Jin, plus freight 500 yuan / ton profit and acquisition of local cotton seed, equivalent to 700 yuan / ton.

According to a local cotton business person in charge, at present, the storage and pportation schedule of Shaanxi province is about 40%, some of which are not successful enough to import 3 cotton into the spot market (about 10% of the total output of lint), and small textile enterprises from Shandong and other places come to purchase, the paction price is about 19500 yuan / ton, the cotton enterprises profit is 200-300 yuan / ton, the spinning enterprises are purchased with the purchase, and the daily turnover is more than 20 tons.

South Korea: cotton imports increased in 8-10 months, and the number of cotton in the United States decreased significantly.

Although domestic textile production has continued to shrink, the import of cotton in South Korea has been increasing.

In October this year, South Korea imported 20695 tons of cotton, an increase of 16.9% over the same period, showing a two digit increase for fourth consecutive months.

Specifically, the import volume of South Korea to the US cotton has been greatly reduced, while the imports to Australia cotton and Brazil cotton have increased by 16.3% and 38.5% respectively.

In the first three months of this year, the total import volume of cotton in South Korea increased by 20.7% over the same period last year, to 51 thousand and 800 tons, which was second higher in the past five years. Among them, the imports to the southern hemisphere were 42 thousand tons, an increase of more than 50% over the same period, and 7958 tons of cotton imports to the United States, a decrease of 41.9% over the same period last year.

[market review]

On the 20 day, Zheng cotton's CF1305 contract opened slightly down, and the CF1301 contract continued to rise.

Short term market supply decreases and futures warehouse receipts reduce, supporting contracts in recent months.

Go up.

In the medium term, the pressure on fundamentals is still very large, and the pattern of near strong, far and weak will continue.

On the operation, investors can pay close attention to buying arbitrage in January for May.