November 20, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures] domestic spot average price is now rising slowly.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20561 yuan / ton; 229 level 19690 yuan / ton; 328 level 18848 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18069 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10320 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14460 yuan / ton; C32S price 25770 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 19, the domestic cotton spot market price is still rising steadily. As the downstream industry chain continues to be weak, most of the textile enterprises maintain the strategy of buying and selling according to their usage. The market turnover is light, while some enterprises use 40% customs clearance outside the cotton, and the cotton continues to flow out of the port.

3. cotton imports: in November 19th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose or fell. Cotton, cotton, India cotton and Central Asian cotton rose slightly, while West African cotton and Brazil cotton fell slightly. The recent market demand for Pima cotton and the quotation increased by 1.75 cents. In the past week, the demand for us cotton in the international market is very active. It is said that China has bought cotton in the past few days, mainly in the United States and cotton. Last week, it coincided with the US cotton procurement summit.

4. the purchase and storage of new cotton: last week (12-16 November 2012) was the 2012 week of cotton temporary purchase and storage transaction for ninth weeks, and the volume of weekly turnover continued to decrease, with a cumulative turnover approaching 2 million 500 thousand tons. As of November 16th, a total of 2 million 490 thousand and 100 tons were registered this year, of which 1 million 671 thousand and 900 tons in Xinjiang and 818 thousand and 200 tons in the mainland.

5.ICE cotton: November 19th, ICE cotton March contract slightly opened low, intraday sharp fluctuations, first rose sharply, then fell sharply, settlement price fell 58 points over the previous trading day.

Summary:

The US cotton March contract has a support of 70 cents / pound on the one hand, and on the other hand there is no small pressure on the 60 day moving average. Zheng cotton aspect, from the current structure, when the price of Zheng cotton is higher than the cotton price of social circulation, the cotton buying enterprise has no power to choose futures purchase channel. This determines that futures prices lose the buying power from spot enterprises. However, under the influence of purchasing and storage, the average price of domestic spot has been rising slowly. During the period of storage and purchase, we insist that the "cotton prices in China will run steadily for a long time". The May contract was strong at 19000 yuan / ton.

[Wanda futures]ICE cotton declined due to lack of buying support.

Overnight ICE cotton continued to rebound at the support of the rising external market, with the highest contract to 73.15 cents per pound in March. However, as cotton prices continued to decline, the attractiveness of the textile enterprises weakened, ICE cotton was difficult to get the initiative to buy support, while the main consumption and import price of China's cotton weakened, and the ICE cotton fell later, the main contract in March fell 0.58 cents to 72.06 cents / pound. At present, close to the year, funds and commercial buying are constrained, and new cotton market pressure increased, lack of capital and basic support, ICE Stage cotton It is expected to maintain a weak pattern and focus on the 70-74 cents / pound crosses area.

Monday ICE cotton small Yin collection, the main force in March contract stable short term average line, short-term average moving upward trend, KD and MACD index in the overfall area continue to rise in a row, MACD index red column continues to grow, the single day fall has not changed the short-term rebound trend, note March contract 74 cents / pound line pressure level and 70 cents / pounds strong support position.

As of November 19th, China has accumulated 2 million 900 thousand tons of storage, resulting in heavy domestic storage and resources. However, due to the close of the year, some enterprises have tight funds, while downstream market demand is low. On the other hand, domestic and foreign textile enterprises and traders are importing cotton with 40% full customs duties, and cheap imported cotton continues to impact domestic cotton prices and ease domestic resource shortage. The market generally ignored the end of the March storage and purchase of the market, the Spring Festival textile enterprises may leave early and postponed the start, the downturn in demand will continue to inhibit cotton prices, Zheng cotton is also difficult to attract textile enterprises and speculative buying intervention, lack of funds and basic support, Zheng cotton will continue to fall, continue to hold 1305 contracts empty, pay attention to 1305 contracts 19000 yuan / ton strong support position and 19200 yuan / ton pressure level.

[one German futures] tail fell sharply, Zheng cotton biased air turbulence

On Monday, the CF1305 market fell sharply, and CF1305 closed more than 3.4 million hands. CF1305 closed at 19100 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, increased 3710 positions; in November 19th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.47 cents / pound, up 0.15 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13596 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14538 yuan / ton.

According to New York's November 19th news, US cotton futures fell on Monday for second consecutive trading days, because of worries about the weakness of supply and demand and profit making, which offset the good news of the United States or preventing automatic tax cuts and tax increases. The ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.68 cents or 0.93%, at 72.05 cents a pound.

In November 19th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10420 tons, an increase of 140 tons over the previous transaction, an order reduction of 860 tons and a total purchase of 53640 tons. On the 19 day, the opening of the contracts was different. On the basic level, the whole cotton yarn market has not changed much. The middle and low grade yarn continues to be weak, and the shipment is not smooth. The profit situation of textile enterprises has been improved, but there are still some losses. With regard to the market outlook, the enthusiasm of production is not high, and there is no intention to purchase large quantities of raw materials.

On Monday, Zheng cotton fell sharply, the market is still not optimistic about the fundamentals of cotton, and the technical level is obviously suppressed by all the moving average. However, because of being on the lower track, it is not recommended to be short. It can be watched cautiously. If the effective volume exceeds 19000, it can catch up. Today's operation suggests that wait-and-see, if the volume exceeds 19000, can be traced empty, the CF1305 reference price range is 19000-19300.

　 [MEIKO futures] market demand for cotton in the United States is active, Zheng cotton is strong and weak.

Overnight, US cotton futures fell on Monday for second consecutive trading days, because of worries about the weakness of supply and demand and profit making, which offset the good news of the US or preventing automatic tax cuts and tax increases. ICE's most active December cotton contract fell 0.68 cents or 0.93%, at 72.05 cents a pound. The price was also suppressed before the first notice day on Friday and the expiration of the December contract.

Industry news, according to some foreign businessmen, the rumors that the Chinese government will abolish the sliding tariff of cotton imports in 2013 are also strong. Only 1% of the quotas for quotas and trade quotas for processing trade cotton are issued, and the total volume is not higher than 2 million tons. There is no official clarification on the rumor.

In the international market, China's main port price of imported cotton has risen or dropped on the 19 day. Cotton, cotton, India cotton and Central Asia cotton have risen slightly, while West African cotton and Brazil cotton have dropped slightly. Recently, Pima cotton has been enjoying a good market demand and the price has increased by 1.75 cents. In the past week, the demand for us cotton in the international market is very active. It is said that China has bought cotton in the past few days, mainly in the United States and cotton. Last week, it coincided with the US cotton procurement summit. {page_break}

The domestic market, 19, the domestic cotton spot market price is still rising steadily. As the downstream industry chain continues to be weak, most textile enterprises maintain the strategy of buying and selling according to their usage. The market turnover is light, while some enterprises use 40% tariff customs clearance outside the cotton, and the cotton continues to flow out of the port. On the last Friday, the Central Cotton store announced that the cotton standard of the 5 affected areas in the mainland should be relaxed to 5. However, because of the low price, the market will have little or no effect on the market.

In November 19th, the national cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 48450 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 2538540 tons in 2012, including 851620 tons in the mainland and 1686920 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, November 19th, the US C/A cotton 88.80 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 14988 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 93.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15634 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15374 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14538 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.85, discount general trade port delivery price 14628 yuan / ton. CNCotton A 19690 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan; CNCotton B 18848 yuan, up 11 yuan.

Market analysis, cotton by-product prices and sales sluggish, indirect impact on lint prices, domestic high reserve is still hanging over the cotton spinning enterprises over the sword, the late market spot lint purchase and sale dynamics will affect the cotton price trend. Near the US cotton 70, buying opportunities to promote price rebound, the 75 line of pressure highlighted; Zheng pan Close to strong and weak.

On the operation, the 05 continued to hold on the back of the pressure empty sheet, looking at the support 18950, and buying the long term arbitrage of the long throw can still be held.