Analysis Of Cotton PTA Market In November 20, 2012

Macro perspective

The US NAHB housing price index in November was 46, 41 and 41.

In October, US housing sales increased to 4 million 790 thousand annually.

Expected 4 million 740 thousand, the former value is 4 million 750 thousand.

China's Ministry of Commerce said Monday that the overall size of China's foreign trade this year could increase by about 6%.

The Ministry of Commerce announced that after entering the November, import and export related data showed a negative growth, indicating that the foundation for stabilizing China's foreign trade is still not solid.

This week, European countries will issue a showdown on how to make medium-term budgets. But because the United Kingdom insists that the idea of freezing expenditure can not be reconciled with other countries, the EU may consider circumvent the UK's budget for 2014-2020 years.

The tension in the Middle East raised the price of oil on Monday. As a reprisal of Palestinian rocket attacks, Israeli air strikes on Gaza Strip triggered concern about the oil supply in the region.

Cotton in early view:

Monday ICE cotton high and low to take the lead, the main contract in March fell 0.58 cents to 72.06 cents / pound, technical graphics average line system to maintain a good rebound form, short-term strong shock market is expected to continue.

Zhengmian 1305 contract closed on Monday and closed at 19100 points, down 90 points from the previous trading day.

The top twenty are 271 to 53968 hands, adding 2280 to 66930 hands. In general, the air force still has a slight advantage.

Trading volume smaller than the previous day, indicating that the price decline kinetic energy weakened, MACD index green column shortening, DIF, DEA two line in the 0 axis downward direction of adhesion, indicating that prices in weak areas rebound trend.

The probability of interval oscillation is larger in technical graphics.

Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 639 (of which 221 Xinjiang cotton), 51 fewer than the previous day (28 Xinjiang cotton, 23 inland cotton), 6 effective forecasts.

In terms of fundamentals, domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 18794 (+6), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 84.47 cents / pound (+0.15), 1% tariff 13596 yuan / ton, discount slip quasi tax to 14538 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -4256 yuan / ton.

ICE cotton has been in China recently.

The sustained expansion of the volume has some support, and its export data are better. Therefore, the US cotton strong shock pattern is expected to continue. However, whether the success of the market will be bottomed still needs to observe the development of China's quota policy and the policy of India's acquisition and storage.

China's cotton market has been running smoothly under the policy regulation. The issuance of documents in the Central Cotton store indicates that the five grade cotton will be stored and stored at the price of 17544 yuan / ton for five pre disaster areas such as Hebei, Shandong and Tianjin. The tight domestic resources in the future will definitely provide significant support for cotton prices. However, the downturn in the consumption of cotton yarn and grey fabric at the same time will also restrict the space for raw materials to rise, and there is a demand for the withdrawal of funds from the new year's businesses. Therefore, there is no big market in the cotton market in the short term.

As of 14, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 2531570 tons in, and 1632920 tons in total. The total turnover in the mainland was 769930 tons, and the total turnover of key enterprises reached 128720 tons.

Operation suggestion: CF1305 can rely on 19000 yuan / ton line to try to do more light duty bargain, and the price will fall below 18900 yuan / ton line.

Early view PTA:

Overnight, the WTI crude oil closed down the high line and closed the main line. The main contract in January rose by 2.36 US dollars to 89.28 dollars per barrel, but the price was higher at 90 US dollars / barrel line, paying close attention to the influence of Geopolitics on crude oil prices.

The TA1305 contract closed on Monday, closing at 7558 points, up 38 points from the previous session.

The top twenty were 10482 to 84610 hands, adding 28072 hands to 104470 hands, and the overall strength of the air side was slightly superior.

The volume is smaller than the previous day, indicating that the price has a rebound kinetic energy, MACD index green column turned red, DIF, DEA two line under the 0 axis adhesive, for the time being no clear direction.

In terms of technical graphics, short-term consolidation is expected to continue.

On the spot: PX external: $1564 / ton (-4), PTA external disk: $1102 / ton (0), PTA inner disk: 8150 yuan / ton (0), MEG external disk: 1045 US dollars / ton (+5), MEG inner disk: 7650 yuan / ton (+30), polyester chip: 9850 yuan / ton (-75).

Industry dynamics: 11.19-11.25 Sinopec PET chip weekly guide price quotation: semi glossy slicing 10100 yuan / ton, glossy slice 10100 yuan / ton.

11.19-11.25 Hengli PET chips weekly guide quote: half light and glossy chips are reported 10100 yuan / ton cash out of the factory.

PTA's internal and external market is mainly stabilized. The supporting role of the cost side is more obvious. The downstream polyester market continues to be weak. The focus of the polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is down slightly. The production and sales are generally the same as before. There are many concessions in actual pactions. The polyester Market in Fujian is basically the same as that in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets. Because of the poor market mentality, the enthusiasm for buying the downstream market is low, mostly based on the small cap.

The short and short market also continues to be weak, and the downstream is basically on demand procurement.

Short term forecast

Polyester and short market is still dominated by weak finishing.

Operation suggestion: PTA1305 contract 7400 yuan / ton 7600 yuan / ton high throwing low suction rolling operation.