Market Analysis Of Textile And Garment Industry: Valuation Has Margin Of Safety

< p > the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index accumulated a decrease of 8.3% during the year. Shen Wan textile > a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > clothing > /a > industry index accumulated a decrease of 21.2%, and the overall loss of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, of which Shen Wan textile manufacturing sub plate decreased by 14.5% during the whole year, which was relatively good, mainly due to the performance of the subject shares; while the shwan clothing home textile sub plate decreased by 26.4% during the year, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was significantly lost.

By November 27, 2012, the valuation of textile and garment industry was estimated to be 16.09 times that of negative textiles. The valuation of textile manufacturing industry was 18.67 times, and the value of apparel home textile industry was 15.08 times.

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< p > < strong > 2012 industry review: < /strong > < /p >

< p > (1) textile manufacturing: the trend of internal and external demand warming is not clear, and cotton price difference remains high and volatile.

In terms of external demand, 1-10 months less than a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > clothing exports increased by only 2% year-on-year; the growth rate of domestic demand retail businesses was slowing down; the difference in cotton prices was maintained due to the influence of the market structure of national cotton storage market and oversupply of cotton.

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< p > (2) clothing home textiles: retail sales growth seasonally, but stock is still high.

In October 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the sales volume of 00 above the quota were warmer than before. Over the same period, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles, and hundreds of major retail enterprises also experienced seasonal warming. At the same time, clothing CPI continued to fall, and the average stock price in the three quarter increased by 30.3%.

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< p > apparel industry will continue to grow steadily, but there is also a cyclical nature.

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< p > (1) urbanization and consumption upgrading will keep the industry growth rate above 13%: 1, the urbanization process in the past ten years has raised the urbanization rate to 51.3%; the minimum wage standard will increase by more than 13% during the 2 and 12th Five-Year periods; 3, China's entry into the middle-income countries, also means that China's consumption has entered the era of mass consumption.

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< p > (2) clothing consumption is affected by the economic cycle: 1. The retail growth rate of the United States and < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp" > Hongkong < /a > has a high correlation with the GDP growth rate; 2, the change of clothing CPI is positively related to the growth rate of textile and clothing income; 3, the brand clothing has the characteristics of the post cycle.

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< p > (3) the growth power of industry is switched to endogenous growth: operation is king: 1, the era of maintaining high growth can only be maintained by extension alone; 2, the pformation of channel into operation is king; 3, the improvement of operational capability will be reflected in the flat effect.

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< p > < strong > investment view: < /strong > < /p >

(P) (1) textile manufacturing sector, due to the influence of the market pattern of oversupply of cotton, the price continues to decline, while the price of domestic cotton is affected by the national reserve market. The price of domestic cotton is still strong. At the same time, the situation of the Canton Fair shows that foreign trade is still sluggish. Therefore, we maintained the previous judgement that the industry's turning point has not yet arrived, and the plate still maintains a shock pattern. It is suggested that the relevant listed companies in the non cotton industry chain should be concerned, such as the leather industry's Xingye technology; < /p >

< p > (2) the clothing home textile plate has experienced 9-11 consecutive months of decline, and the whole plate valuation has dropped to 15.08 times. This shows that the expected slowdown in the performance of the brand clothing in 2013 has been reflected. At present, the whole plate valuation has a margin of safety. However, as the industry performance inflection point has not yet appeared, there is a lack of stock price stimulating factors in the short term. After waiting for the economic cycle to pick up, the clothing retailing will return to the path of steady growth. However, we are optimistic about the growth of the company in the medium and long term, and the companies with strong operational performance, such as the seven wolves, nine herdmen, Mei Bang dress, Canodi road and search for the best.

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< p > risk warning.

The uncertainty of economic growth and external demand recovery; and the rising costs.

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