Global Cotton Production Will Continue To Decline In ICAC:2013/14

The December monthly report issued by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (P) believes that the global cotton production in 2013/14 will continue to decline in the year of 2013/14.

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< p > despite the decline of cotton prices in 2012/13, the price of most competitive crops has risen sharply, so the advantage of planting a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > continues to weaken.

ICAC expects that the global cotton planting area in 2013 will be reduced by 9%, to 472 million 500 thousand mu, and the output will be reduced by 11%, to 23 million 200 thousand tons, for second consecutive years, and the lowest in nearly four years.

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In P > 2013/14, cotton production declined significantly in countries with less than a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp" > USA < /a > (-26%) and Turkey (30%), because grain and soybean had more advantages.

China (-11%), Pakistan (-9%), Central Asia (-13%) and West Africa (-10%) are the countries and regions of small decline in production.

India's output is very small, because the average yield per unit area will recover after two consecutive years of decline.

If Australia's drought occurs again, cotton production may be reduced by 14%.. So far, cotton production in other South American countries is expected to decline only slightly, because the sowing time in these countries is six months later than that in the northern hemisphere, and cotton prices are likely to be higher.

In the next few months, cotton planting intentions in 2013/14 will change, depending on the cotton yield in 2012/13 and the price relationship between cotton and other commodities.

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In the period of < p > 2013/14, due to slow global economic recovery, global cotton < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > consumption > /a > is expected to grow slowly.

However, a slight increase in cotton prices may limit the growth of cotton demand.

ICAC estimates that global cotton consumption in was 24 million 200 thousand tons, up 3% over the same period last year, with the main growth coming from South Asia.

China's cotton consumption is expected to decrease by 2% to 8 million 400 thousand tons.

The cotton consumption in India and Pakistan is expected to increase significantly because of the abundant domestic supply and the drop in production cost of cotton yarn.

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In P 2013/14, global cotton imports are expected to remain stable at 7 million 800 thousand tons, and the decrease in China's imports will be offset by the increase in imports from other countries.

ICAC expects that China's imports will be lower than the actual gap between supply and demand, and the National Reserve will make up for the shortage of market supply.

In addition, imports from Turkey, Bangladesh and Pakistan will increase significantly.

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In P > 2013/14, the end of global inventory will decline for the first time for the first time in three consecutive years.

ICAC expects that the end of inventory will be reduced by 6% to 15 million 600 thousand tons, with most of the reduction coming from outside China, and China's final inventory will be reduced to 6 million 900 thousand tons.

Global inventory consumption is down from 71% to 64%, still significantly higher than the historical average.

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What P needs to point out is that China is the most uncertain factor in short-term global supply and demand forecasts.

Over the past 14 months, China has accumulated more than 7 million tons of cotton.

It remains to be seen how the Chinese government will regulate the reserves of cotton reserves by the end of March next year.

At the same time, when China will issue additional quotas and the number of additional issuance in 2013, it has also attracted much attention.

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< p > Benin: 2012/13: output of 158 thousand tons, increased by 68 thousand tons; export volume of 119 thousand tons, increased by 44 thousand tons.

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< p > Brazil: 2012/13: output is 1 million 535 thousand tons, increasing by 45 thousand tons.

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< p > Burkina Faso: 2012/13: output of 260 thousand tons, increased by 50 thousand tons.

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< p > Turkey 2008/09: output of 500 thousand tons, increased by 60 thousand tons; consumption of 1 million 175 thousand tons, increased by 45 thousand tons; 2009/10: output 475 thousand tons, increased by 95 thousand tons; consumption 1 million 350 thousand tons, increased 50 thousand tons; 2010/11 year: output 618 thousand tons, increase 168 thousand tons; consumption volume 1 million 300 thousand tons, increase of 168 thousand tons, 2011/12 year: consumption of tons of tons, increase of tons of tons.

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