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Comprehensive Analysis Of Cotton Futures Today

2012/12/5 17:25:00 46

[Hongyuan futures] zhengmian will still focus on horizontal finishing in May, .

key points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20735 yuan / ton; 229 class 19859 yuan / ton; 328 level 19030 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18373 yuan / ton.

Domestic a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 10530 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 13960 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25715 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: domestic storage capacity is active, supporting domestic cotton spot prices continue to uplink.

At present, imported cotton is gradually playing a leading role in China's cotton consumption. However, domestic cotton prices and international market cotton prices are difficult to bridge in the short term, and will continue to suppress demand for downstream cotton mills.

3. imported cotton: in December 7th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose slightly, and the price of most varieties increased by 0.5 cents.

At present, buyers and sellers are more cautious in dealing with each other. As the end of the year is approaching, there is a great deal of variation in the national policies. The textile mills have to limit the seller's delivery time in order to control the risks and the contracts signed by full tariff.

In addition, the market hopes for the state to throw away its reserves, so the number of orders for foreign cotton is not large enough to maintain normal production.

4. seed cotton purchase: (November 30th -12 6), the supply of high quality seed cotton in main producing areas in China has gradually decreased, and the risk of cotton processing and lint storage has increased. Cotton seed purchase is more cautious.

In addition, the price of cottonseed generally rose in various regions, which brought support to the seed cotton market and the price showed an upward trend.

5.ICE cotton: in December 7th, the ICE cotton trade was in a slump, and the March contract was adjusted at 73 cents throughout the day to close 24 points.

At present, the focus of the market shifts to the supply and demand report of USDA12 month.

summary:

with the reduction of high-grade cotton resources in social circulation, the possibility of throwing and storing cotton by the government at the beginning of the end of the year is more and more likely.

Under this expectation, Zheng cotton's contract pressure in January and March has been increasing, and imported cotton has lost the basis of continuous rise.

For the contract of May of the far month, when the price of Zheng cotton is higher than the cotton price of social circulation, the cotton buying enterprise has no power to choose futures purchase channel.

This determines that futures prices have lost the buying power from spot enterprises, and will still be dominated by sideways collation in the near future.

For the recent month contract, we should pay full attention to the policy of purchasing and storage in operation. On the one hand, there is a so-called "forced warehouse" market in January, but the risk of this operation is gradually increasing.

[one German futures] the basis is narrowed. The bottom support of Zheng cotton is strong.

CF1305 on Friday saw a narrow concussion. CF1305 closed more than 5.5 hands, and its position increased slightly.

CF1305 closed at 19140 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, increased 6374 positions; in December 7th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.13 cents / pound, up 0.44 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13675 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14595 yuan / ton.

according to the news of New York on December 7th, ICE cotton rose three days on Friday, due to yesterday's export sales data, which led to speculative buying, which led to a three week high in the cotton futures market, and then reduced the increase.

The ICE's main contract price rose 0.24 cents or 0.32% to 73.79 cents in March.

December 7th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10740 tons, an increase of 160 tons over the previous paction, an order reduction of 1760 tons, and a total purchase of 35120 tons.

On the 7 day, the opening rate of each contract was different.

On the basic level, although it is still rising moderately recently, it is far lower than the purchase and storage price. Under the control of profits, cotton enterprises are worried about the difficulty of storing and storing. Meanwhile, the spinning enterprises are hard to worry about for cotton blending. This is a new thing in the new stock market.

At the same time, under the promotion of the huge price difference between inside and outside cotton, the import of cotton and the import of cotton yarn remain relatively high, which will undoubtedly make the long-term pressure more successful.

On Friday, Zheng cotton narrowly concussion, the recent shock interval gradually narrowed, spot prices steadily rebounded, the base narrowed, and the bottom price of the market price was strong. This region could still hold more. Investors can continue to intervene more than 19050 below P.

Another thing to pay attention to is the difference between CF1309 and 1305. At present, the spread of -205 is too small, and there is a tendency to continue to converge. It can intervene in arbitrage single target 0.

Today's operations suggest that more than one single holding, 19050 below continue to intervene more single, target 19250, CF1305 reference price range of 19000-19300.

[Wanda futures] export data is good. Before the USDA monthly report, the US cotton continued to rebound pattern /p >

as of November 29th, the US cotton has signed a total of 1 million 804 thousand tons of cotton exported to 2012/13 in the year of USDA11, accounting for 71.4% of the forecast volume of 2 million 526 thousand tons in the month of USDA11, of which 447 thousand tons were contracted out in the past 5 weeks, and the export progress was better than the market expected.

According to this calculation, the US cotton export volume will be only 722 thousand tons in the future, and the substantial reduction of export resources will lead investors to leave the field before the USDA12 monthly report. Cotton will continue to rise on the ICE cotton market on Friday. The main contract in March will be up to 0.24 cents to 73.79 cents / pound. The continuation of the rebound will continue to challenge the 74 cents / pound pressure level.

However, from the CFTC data, at the end of the year, the fund purchase was not stimulated. After the December contract delivery, the capital market was limited, the options were active, the Bulls' confidence was not enough, the cautious inflation was appropriate, and the pressure level of 74 cents / pound was concerned.

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ICE cotton rose slightly on Friday. The main force in March stood firm on the short-term average line and challenged 74 cents / pound pressure level. The medium and short term average line system continued to rise in series. The KD and MACD indexes continued to rise in a strong area. The MACD index continued to grow, and the rally would continue. For example, the March contract broke through 74 cents / pound pressure level, and the uplink target would be 78 cents / pound, otherwise it would continue the 70-74 cent / pound crosses area.

up to December 7th, China has accumulated a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > 3 million 815 thousand tons, accounting for 55.6% of USDA forecast 6 million 860 thousand tons of output. According to the calculation of 30 million tons of incoming reserves per week in the past three weeks, it is expected that the reserves will reach 5 million tons before the Spring Festival, and the tension of resources has become the focus of the market. However, the stock forecast of Zhengzhou cotton has started to increase slowly, and the short positions with spot background will launch a counterattack. The speculative long majority will be restricted by capital and trading rules, and eventually its liquidation will constitute pressure on Zheng cotton.

On the other hand, as domestic exports and consumption continue to shrink, the market is about to enter 2013, the upcoming Spring Festival holiday in China, some enterprises have high inventory of cotton yarn. In 2013, limiting production, reducing production and early holidays will inhibit the demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival. Without the support of consumption, the domestic cotton price is hard to get rid of the weak pattern.

The US cotton rebound has limited effect on Zheng Mian Li, and it continues to increase its 1305 contract by backing at 19200 yuan / tonne pressure level, with a short-term target of 19000 yuan / ton.

[MEIKO futures] US cotton is expected to continue to rise in direction such as Zheng cotton shock

overnight overnight. In December 7th, the ICE cotton trade was sluggish. In March, the contract was adjusted in the region of 73 cents a day to close 24 points.

At present, the focus of the market shifts to the supply and demand report of USDA12 month.

As the US cotton export progress has exceeded the progress needed for the USDA export target of 2 million 560 thousand tons, the market thinks that USDA will raise the US cotton export expectation.

international market. In December 7th, the price of China's main port of import cotton rose slightly, and the price of most varieties increased by 0.5 cents.

In addition, the market hopes for the state to throw away its reserves, so the number of orders for foreign cotton is not large enough to maintain normal production.

domestic market, 7 days, domestic cotton spot market price continues to strengthen.

National storage and import quotas restrict imports, boosting domestic cotton prices, and the future domestic cotton premium will continue, while the high cost of cotton textile enterprises and the lack of competitiveness in the outside world will inhibit downstream demand for a long time.

National Reserve dynamics. In December 7th, the State Cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 157180 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 3814950 tons in 2012, including 1231980 tons in the mainland, 1957320 tons in Xinjiang, and 625650 tons in key enterprises.

December 7th, the United States C/A cotton 89.60 (cents / pound), the discount port RMB delivery price 15041 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 94.60, discount port RMB port delivery price 15678 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 92.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15355 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.10, discount port RMB port delivery price 14481 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.60, discount port RMB port delivery price 14551 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19859 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan; CNCotton B 19030 yuan, up 18 yuan.

market analysis, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > spot price is still relatively stable, downstream yarn prices have a downward trend, due to constraints such as funds and orders, textile enterprises will not have strong willingness to replenishment, and the procurement focus is still mainly outside cotton.

US cotton is expected to continue to advance under the promotion of export advantage, and the direction of the axis support from Zheng 01 to the shock zone and 05 narrow shocks.

operation, the 01 part of the contract is empty only part of the profit, 05 contract empty single relies on 19265 holding, broken can backhand.