Several Major Institutions In December 21, 2012 -- Cotton Futures

< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures] Zheng cotton did not get rid of the regional concussion in May. < /strong > < /p >
< p > key points < /p >
< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20847 yuan / ton; 229 class 19967 yuan / ton; 328 level 19141 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18507 yuan / ton. Domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 10660 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 13730 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25720 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > 2. domestic stock: on the 20 day, domestic cotton spot price is still rising. Cotton spot market continues to pay attention to policy regulation, textile enterprises are more and more intense in anticipation of throwing stocks, and the market has repeatedly heard rumors. However, before the implementation of the policy of dumping and storage is not implemented, the supply of high-grade cotton in the spot market is still tight. < /p >
< p > 3. imported cotton: in December 20th, the quotation of imported cotton stabilized after a continuous rise, of which the better India cotton price was quoted as 85.85 cents. Although the sliding tax adjustment policy has been introduced, the market is still concerned about when and how the sliding tax will be sent to the textile mills. At the same time, due to the recent 40% import contracts which have full tariff payment, the textile mills are very scrupulous about whether the country is going to have restrictions on this, and be careful when signing contracts to avoid risks. < /p >
< p > 4.: the central finance will continue to implement the policy of subsidized cotton shifting cost and the cost subsidy policy of Xinjiang cotton yarn transportation. The Cotton Subsidy period is from 2011 to 2015, and the cotton and yarn export allowance is 2011 -2015. < /p >
< p > 5.ICE cotton: in December 20th, USDA data showed that last week the US cotton export volume reached 77 thousand and 200 tons and the shipment volume was 39 thousand and 900 tons. However, the market did not reflect too much on the stable export data of US cotton. The ICE cotton continued weak oscillation pattern, and the March contract fell 6 points. < /p >
< p > summary: < /p >
< p > before entering the month of delivery, Zheng cotton's contract in January has been greatly reduced. The bear is in an increasingly passive situation. It is rather tight for the seller who intends to register the warehouse receipts to participate in the CF1301 delivery. Zheng cotton in May, the author stressed: the market demand for storage after the forecast is still weak, and in the cotton price is higher than the social circulation of cotton prices, cotton buying enterprises do not have the power to choose futures purchase channel. This decided that futures prices did not come from the buying power of spot enterprises, and did not shake off the situation of interval shocks. The top 19100 below 19450 is a noteworthy point. < /p >
< p > < strong > [MEIKO futures] < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > external strength and internal weakness continuation of Zheng cotton back platform test support < /strong > /p >
< p > overnight, USDA data show that last week the US cotton export volume reached 77 thousand and 200 tons and the shipment volume was 39 thousand and 900 tons. However, the market did not reflect too much on the stable export data of US cotton. The ICE cotton continued weak oscillation pattern, and the March contract fell 6 points. < /p >
< p > international market. On the 20 day, the quotation of imported cotton stabilized after a continuous rise, of which the better India cotton price was quoted as 85.85 cents. It is understood that although the sliding tax adjustment policy has been promulgated, the market is still concerned about when and how the sliding tax will be sent to the textile mills. At the same time, due to the recent 40% import contracts with full tariff payment, textile mills are not afraid of restrictions on the state. When signing contracts, they are careful to avoid risks. As a whole, cotton prices are difficult to accept at present. < /p >
< p > domestic market, on the 19 day, policy factors continue to dominate the trend of domestic cotton spot price rising. Recently, although the spot market has been loosened, the purchasing volume of textile enterprises is not large, and it is still used with purchase. Textile enterprises believe that spot purchase can not represent a good turn of the downstream market. On the one hand, the price of downstream yarns has not risen. On the other hand, downstream consumption has not yet started. < /p >
< p > National Reserve dynamics. In December 20th, the State Cotton temporary storage and storage closed 41990 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage transactions totaled 4472270 tons, and the total contracts for key enterprises reached 853130 tons. < /p >
December 21st, the United States C/A cotton 92.10 (cents / pound), port delivery price 15377 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 97.10, port delivery price 16032 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 95.10, port delivery price 15766 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 87.35, port delivery price 14788 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.85, port delivery price 14608 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > market analysis, the difference between international and domestic industry fundamentals leads to the departure of the internal and external market trend. ICE cotton main contract still has the opportunity to test the high point of 78.02 cents earlier, and the 05 contract tries to go back to the early stage of the shock platform. < /p >
< p > operation, back to the narrow platform test support. < /p >
< p > < strong > [Yi De futures] slightly overadjusted. Zheng cotton continued to rebound. < /strong > /p >
< p > on Thursday, CF1305 opened up and left low. CF1305 closed more than 7.3 hands, and its position decreased slightly. CF1305 closed at 19185 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton, reduced 6202 hand; in December 20th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 86.24 cents / pound, fell 0.27 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13850 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14729 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > according to New York's December 20th news, cotton fell again on Thursday, as investors worried about the US budget crisis, which led to a strong wave in the commodity market, but speculative interest continued to limit the decline. In March, the ICE settlement price fell 0.06 cents, or 0.07%, at 75.83 cents a pound. {page_break} < /p >
< p > December 20th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 11940 tons, an increase of 720 tons over the previous transaction, an order reduction of 1380 tons, and a total purchase of 29260 tons. On the 20 day, the opening of the contracts was different, with a wide range of shocks in the day. Basically, the domestic market is short of cotton resources. Although the number of cotton outside the port has increased from mid December to Hong Kong, most of them have been booked (except whether the textile enterprises buy the predetermined problems). Scarce resources have pushed prices up. Textile enterprises have not been able to digest large quantities of cotton in the absence of improvement in the downstream demand. They have been allocated quotas and throwing stocks to solve the demand problems in the future market. The market is relatively stable and the market is slack, and the market pays close attention to the follow-up policy trend. < /p >
On Thursday, Zheng cotton went up and down, and the main contract fell again. The spot price index has reached 19118, the futures premium is limited, the 09 contract is a slight discount, and the 05 and 09 contracts are a reasonable choice. Today's operations suggest that more than one single holding, 05 stop 19100,09 stop loss 19000, CF1305 reference price range of 19100-19400. < /p >
< p > < strong > [Wanda futures] the export data of US cotton are favorable to support ICE phase cotton < /strong > /p >
< p > up to 13 days a week, the United States cotton signed a total of 76 thousand tons of cotton exports this year, an increase of 18% compared with the previous week, while the 7 consecutive weeks for the US cotton contract in more than 60 thousand tons, of which China signed 38 thousand and 900 tons of cotton this year, indicating that the end of the year commercial buying is strong, which support ICE phase cotton. ICE cotton was dragged from its external market and its main contract was only 0.06 cents to 75.83 cents / pound in March. Next week, the market will usher in Christmas and New Year holidays. The market investment climate is weak. But after the long holiday, the fund buying is expected to revive. Meanwhile, commercial buying is still strong, which will support ICE cotton. The main contract in March is expected to challenge 78 cents / pound pressure level. < /p >
< p > ICE on Thursday, the cotton bottom bottom picked up, but the main contract in March was still far away from the short-term average line support. The medium and short term average line system continued to rise in a long way. The KD and MACD indexes continued to rise in a strong area. The rising trend did not change, but the MACD index red column was shortened, the callback pressure increased, the cotton bullion was cautiously bullish, and the March contract was placed at a strong pressure level of 78 cents / pound. < /p >
< p > up to December 20th, China had accumulated 4 million 473 thousand tons of reserves and tight spot resources. The shortage of Zheng cotton warehouse led to a strong 1301 contract, but this could not support long-term contracts. In December, India and the United States launched a large number of new cotton and went to Hong Kong. China's import tariff was determined in the new year, and cheap imported cotton continued to hit domestic cotton prices. However, because of the high price difference between inside and outside China, the export of Chinese textiles < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing "/a" is still in the doldrums, and the price of downstream yarn and gray cloth remain weak. Entering the 2013, enterprises lacking competitiveness will continue to reduce production and limit production. The Spring Festival will give long holidays ahead of schedule, and the possibility of replenishment before the festival is unlikely. Under such circumstances, domestic cotton prices will maintain a weak pattern and continue to hold empty contracts for forward contracts, focusing on the 1305 contract 19000 yuan / ton supporting position and 19400 yuan / ton pressure level. < /p >