Lai Weimin: Analysis Of International Economic Situation In 2013

< p > USA.

The a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > the US fiscal cliff /a is just a false alarm. The tax cuts will continue most of the time and the fiscal deficit ceiling will also increase.

By the end of December 2012, the United States will once again get out of the predicament through monetary easing.

After the financial cliff is settled, the US economic situation will be flat.

The US dollar will continue to depreciate in the first half of 2013.

In the second half of this year, with the recovery of the real economy, the strong rebound in real estate and the increase in personal consumption, the international investment will attract massive inflow into the United States, and the dollar will begin to appreciate, thus promoting the full recovery of the US economy.

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< p > euro area.

The European debt crisis will bottom out in the first half of 2013.

The early resignations of the Prime Minister of Italy, the maturity of several Spanish debts and the release of the French private debt risk will take place before the middle of 2013.

After these events, the worst days of the European debt crisis were over.

With the dust of the German Chancellor election in 2013, the euro zone economy will enter a slow recovery stage.

Of course, this is a long and painful process.

The high welfare policy in Europe and the management mechanism in the euro area are the problems that the euro area economy has to face and solve in the process of economic recovery.

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< p > < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > emerging economies < /a >.

Emerging economies will still be more difficult in 2013.

Slow growth and inflation will exist simultaneously.

Because of the European economic downturn and the US trade protection, the external demand of emerging economies will be weak for a long time.

Rising resource prices and rising labor costs will weaken the competitiveness of emerging economies.

While growth is slow, resource prices and labor costs will drive domestic prices up.

With the continuous monetary easing policy of developed countries such as the United States, the pressure of imported inflation in emerging economies persists.

Although emerging economies will be slightly better in 2013 than in 2012, they will still be more difficult in general.

Among them, China's soft landing will succeed because of the earlier pformation and urbanization.

Compared with other emerging economies, it is more optimistic.

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< p > Japan.

The victory of the LDP election marks the risk of Japan's economic growth.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has won the election under the slogan of "revival of the economy", but it is hard to revive the current "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp "Japanese economy < /a".

The impact of Japan's economic bubble burst in 90s and the nuclear leakage of Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011 has not yet been eliminated.

Population aging, serious sovereign debt and economic sanctions against Asian countries also have a great impact on their economic development.

Abe Shinzo's doubling of inflation targets is nothing less than a gamble. Economic development is lacking in momentum. It is necessary to develop through currency devaluation.

The utilitarianism of the Japanese political arena has forced Abe to gamble. If the deal is not good enough, the Japanese economy will fall into a long-term recession.

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In short, P is a very important time window for the world economy in 2013.

Although the world economy is still at a low growth stage, with the full recovery of the US economy, the bottom of the European debt crisis and the soft landing of China's economy, the world economy will take this as a starting point and gradually get out of the predicament.

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