Market Trend And Investment Strategy Analysis Of Textile And Garment Industry

< p > consumption data is relatively stable.

Retail sales of social consumer goods and above quota < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > shoes > target= > Hat Pin > "http://www.91se91.com/", "yarn", "yarn", "yarn", "spinning", "retail", "retail sales" continued to pick up, and basically passed the most difficult period.

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< p > the main business income and profit of textile enterprises increased continuously year-on-year, and the growth rate was relatively consistent, indicating that profits and revenues grew at the same time; the total sales value of industrial output declined slightly, and the value of export delivery increased slightly, but it was a cliff type fall compared with last year.

A href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > dress < /a > the total profit growth of enterprises is lower than that of main business income. This shows that the profit margin is relatively poor, and the industrial sales value and the export delivery value are relatively stable.

In 2012, compared with 2011, it dropped sharply, basically hitting the bottom. The low base effect in 2013 may bring about a faster growth.

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< p > < strong > market trend < /strong > < /p >

In January, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.68%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 8.41%, the Shen Wan textile and garment industry rose 4.27%, the Shen Wan textile manufacturing industry index rose 5.39%, and the Shen Wan clothing textile industry index rose by 3.30%. P

By the end of 1, the valuation of textile and garment industry was 22.44 times, the value of textile manufacturing industry was 36.90 times, and the value of apparel textile industry was 17.99 times.

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< p > < strong > investment strategy < /strong > < /p >

The market situation of < p > January is better, the textile and garment industry is slightly behind the market, especially the clothing home textile industry once again experienced stagflation, and the overall valuation declined.

The better trend is the concept stocks, such as those involved in Wenzhou gold reform, and the overall rising home textile industry.

Home textile companies benefit from the concept of consumption growth before the Spring Festival, the high pfer market and the real estate sector, and the best trend after the deep fall in the second half of 2012.

However, a large increase has already accumulated some risks. The excellent performance that may appear in the first quarter has been digested by the market, and the trend of home textile companies may weaken in the future.

At present, the market is entering a period of intensive performance forecast. The market will be dominated by performance forecasts and other news in the coming period. What we can focus on is the company whose performance is upward revision or loss making.

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< p > based on the industry character of optional consumer goods and the recovery of consumption data, it maintains the "neutral" rating of the textile and apparel industry as a whole.

Recommending the announcement that the cashmere industry, which will expand production capacity and expand product lines and consolidate the leading position of the industry again, will become the US state dress, which has resulted in a one-time cost and a drop in price due to the cancellation of the stock incentive plan, and the success of inventory management.

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< p > cotton textile may become a luxury.

At the news conference held by the China Federation of textile industry in January 31st, Gao Yong, vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Federation, had attracted a lot of attention from the media.

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< p > the report released by China Textile Federation pointed out that the development pressure of the textile industry increased in 2012. Besides the depressed demand in the international market, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to widen.

Influenced by domestic management policies, domestic cotton prices were about 45% higher than the international market at the end of 2012, which seriously affected the competitiveness of the cotton textile industry chain.

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< p > Gao Yong analysis said: "now the CIF price of imported cotton, even if the tariff is added, is only about 13 thousand yuan per ton, while the current purchase price of the national cotton store reaches 20 thousand and 400 yuan, the selling price is 19 thousand yuan, and the price difference reaches 6000 yuan.

Although many domestic textile enterprises have few cotton stocks, they still do not want to buy national storage cotton, but instead of chemical fiber.

Therefore, in clothing and other textiles, natural fibers are used less and less, and the proportion of chemical fibers is increasing.

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< p > why textile enterprises do not import cotton? The reason lies in China's cotton import quota system.

In order to avoid the excessive impact of imported cotton on domestic cotton, China has to maintain cotton prices at a high price and low price in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers. On the other hand, it implements cotton import quota system for textile enterprises.

For textile enterprises, if we want to use imported cotton, we must first get the corresponding quota of import quota to buy it.

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< p > without this quota, cotton enterprises can only buy home made cotton with much higher price.

In 2012, our country issued a total of 1 million 894 thousand tons of cotton import quotas. For enterprises, the more they got the quotas, the more cheap imported cotton they could buy, and even the "quotas" industry came into being. The quota of one ton of imported cotton was sold to more than 3500 yuan.

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< p > Wang Tiankai, President of the China Textile Industry Federation, told editors that the international cotton market is still in a state of oversupply at present. There are no signs of reducing planting in the big cotton producing countries such as the United States. Therefore, the international cotton price in 2013 still lacks the power to rebound sharply.

China may continue to implement the cotton temporary purchase and storage policy, and the purchase price will not be lowered. Therefore, domestic cotton prices will remain at a high level in 2013, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will continue to exist.

"In that case, the price of cotton textiles, especially cotton textiles, will be higher and higher, and may even become luxuries."

Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, said to the editor.

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< p > Wang Tiankai said that because of the excessive cotton price at home and abroad, it is difficult to completely resolve its negative effects only by adjusting and tapping the potential of the textile enterprises themselves. Therefore, how to take measures from the policy level to effectively reduce the difference between inside and outside cotton prices and ease the competitive pressure of cotton spinning enterprises will become an important factor affecting the operation of the textile industry.

At present, the state has not yet formed a clear solution to the problem of cotton price difference between inside and outside, and hopes to study and issue relevant measures as soon as possible, so as to promote the smooth development of the textile industry.

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< p > < strong > China's demand for clothing increased by less than /strong > /p >

< p > according to international experience, when per capita GDP is below US $3000, the demand for clothing is still mainly warm. When the per capita GDP exceeds US $3000, from 3000 to 5000 US dollars, the demand for clothing will increase considerably, and the demand is mainly for fashion, health care and comfort. At present, China's per capita GDP is just over 5000 US dollars, so the demand for textiles such as garments will increase further, which will be more obvious in rural areas and two or three cities.

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< p > in the whole winter of clothing industry, most of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > brand clothing < /a > enterprises are not alone.

Yesterday, there was news of layoffs for men's men's clothing.

However, the editor in charge of the first financial daily said that the performance of Qipai men's clothing was good last year. It was only a routine elimination of the annual staff, not a layoff.

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< p > this person told the editor that at the end of the company, every department would conduct an assessment and the unqualified employees would be eliminated.

This year, the employees who are eliminated will get the n+1 compensation (that is, the working life plus 1, then multiplied by the monthly salary), which will happen every year.

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< p > however, according to a senior industry veteran, since the second half of last year, a considerable number of garment enterprises have been greatly reduced, including some well-known enterprises.

"Because of the poor ordering situation, many garment enterprises have reduced their warehouse staff by half."

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< p > for dealers, stores can not earn money, which has become a general consensus.

A Shandong Yantai dealer who runs a number of clothing brands told the editor: "the middle and high class men's clothing is stronger, but it's not as good as it used to be, and the brand of sports and leisure is even worse, almost not making money."

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< p > this situation is also reflected from the financial data of enterprises.

According to the data released by Semir apparel (002563.sz), as of the third quarter of last year, the company's net profit was 474 million yuan, down 41.4% from the same period last year, and its inventory also increased by 31.28% over the beginning of last year.

At the end of the three quarter of last year, seven wolf stocks were 736 million yuan, up 49.71% from the end of the two quarter, and the proportion of total assets rose from 10.33% at the end of the two quarter to 13.33%.

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Compared with P, the business type and the positioning of high-end men's clothing enterprises are slightly better.

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Hong Zhaoshe, chairman of the P card, said in a media interview last year that in 2012, there were about 3 billion yuan sales scale of seven cards, and the inventory is in the controllable range.

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< p > the above seven cards also said: "last year, the company grew steadily and its performance rose by about 20%.

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< p > for the situation in 2013, the industry has also seen much less.

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< p > according to the data of Shen Wan textile and garment sector, the 19 brand clothing companies, in the three quarter of 2012, totaled 11 billion 700 million yuan in the balance sheet, up nearly 18% compared with the same period last year, an increase of nearly 134% over the three quarter of 2010, and the absolute amount is also a new high in the past three years.

There is no obvious improvement in clothing retail terminal. Based on the pressure of channel inventory, the pace of extension and expansion is slowing down. It is expected that the growth of garment enterprises' income and net profit will slow down in 2013.

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< p > PEAK CEO Xu Zhihua said in an interview with editors that the consumption capacity of the market in the past two years is not enough and the demand is shrinking. In the long run, the government will take some measures to promote the steady development of the economy. However, "2013 is still not optimistic, we can only make conservative estimates".

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< p > Xu Zhihua told the editor that the industry has a very important index called "sell out rate". When the market is good, the selling rate is 80%~85% or even higher, but in the past two years, the sales rate of PEAK is only 70%~80%, and some enterprises are even lower. "Although it is in controllable range, the pressure is a little big."

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< p > "if the pressure of enterprises in 2012 is on sale (i.e. inventory), then the pressure in 2013 may be directly reflected in the cash flow."

Those seven card insiders also said that for the clothing industry, 2013 may be a worse year than 2012.

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< p > textile > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > garment industry < /a > is undergoing a process of constantly survival of the fittest and polarization.

"From the present point of view, the downturn in the industry is still continuing, without bottoming out, nor has it seen signs of recovery."

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