2008, The Bumpy Journey Of Chinese Export Enterprises.

In 2008, for Chinese export enterprises, they faced a bumpy journey woven by thorns.

First of all, since the beginning of the year, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has accelerated, resulting in a cold spell for the export enterprises.

For a long time, the price advantage of pegging the US dollar is no longer, and the benefits of export tax rebate have also shrunk. The profits of enterprises have been very thin, and overseas orders over three months are often unanswered.

Although enterprises can flexibly use foreign exchange hedging tools such as forward settlement, foreign exchange options, interest rate swap and currency structure adjustment in order to maintain the competitiveness of the international market after the appreciation of the domestic currency, under the technical guidance of domestic banks, however, as pointed out by Mr. Ishida, a professor at the former Hannan University of Japan, the one-time bold revaluation will ultimately fail to significantly reduce its trade deficit. The United States will continue to exert pressure on China like Japan did in those days, and demand endless appreciation of the renminbi.

Secondly, due to the recent domestic inflation level has been hovering around 8%, the monetary authorities strictly enforce tight monetary policy, the deposit reserve ratio rose to 17.5%, and is expected to further increase in the year.

The indirect financing cost of enterprises has increased, and it is also difficult to alleviate the pressure of funds by relying on direct financing channels. Small and medium-sized enterprises and even some old enterprises have been in a tight financial position.

In addition, rising oil prices pushed the cost of international shipping to unprecedented levels.

For export countries, shipping costs have replaced tariffs and become the biggest obstacle between them and the international market.

According to the statistics of CIBC World Markets Inc, in recent three years, the cost of shipping has risen 1% correspondingly.

At present, the oil price factor has accounted for about half of the total freight cost, which will directly spread into its sales price in foreign markets.

Of course, the specific problems should be analyzed in detail.

For example, the products with higher added value are less affected by the lower proportion of the cost of shipping to the goods, and the products with lower added value are greatly affected. These products include furniture, footwear, metal products, etc. These are the commodities that China has obviously declined in recent years.

As far as the US market is concerned, Mexico and some Central American enterprises do not have the problem of crossing the oceans, thus becoming the winner of the oil price rise.

It is estimated that if the pport cost from East Asia to the east coast of the United States in 2000 is only 90% higher than that from Mexico to the east coast of the United States, when the oil price rises to $200 per barrel, the former will be 3 times the latter.

In other words, if we take the shipping cost from East Asia to the US market as an additional tariff of 9%, when the oil price rises to US $200, it is equivalent to an additional 15% tariff.

There is no doubt that this will create a huge price gap between China and Mexico.

Of course, American importers, who are eager to pursue profits, have in fact noticed this.

There are indications that some orders are flowing from China to Mexico.

Now, no matter scholars or market speculators, more and more people are inclined to believe that the trend of high oil prices will not be reversed in a long time.

This means that Chinese manufacturing enterprises will face the challenge of rising pport costs caused by high oil prices.

In this sense, "upgrading of the industrial structure" is not an empty slogan for Chinese exporters who want to survive and survive better.

However, in another way, the cost of shipping increases, making the East Asian economies, including China, do not have to go far in pushing the export of enterprises. This may help expand the scale of intra regional trade and investment in East Asia, thus achieving the effect of further integration of regional economies in East Asia.