Cotton Planting Intention Survey Report 2013 (Three)

China cotton and country Cotton industry In March 2013, the technology system investigated 117 designated counties and 3485 designated farmers in 16 provinces and municipalities in Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Tianjin, Qin, Jin, new, Gansu, Liaoning and Kyrgyzstan, and released the intention report on cotton planting in 2013 for decision-making reference.

First, the cotton planting area will be reduced.

1. The intention to plant cotton is reduced by nearly 10%. In 2013, the national cotton planting intention decreased. Compared with the same period in 2012, the figure decreased by 4.4% in January and 8.8% in March, and its annulus ratio expanded by 4.4 percentage points.

According to the monitoring results of 117 high-quality cotton samples counties (regiments), 196 townships (towns), 272 villages and 3485 cotton planting households in March (Table 1), the household accounts for 59.5.0%, the annulus ratio is reduced by 5.5 percentage points; the household accounts for 8.5%, the annulus ratio has increased by 1.2 percentage points; the household accounts for 28.1%, the annulus ratio has increased by 4.8 percentage points; the hovering household has accounted for 3.9%, and the ratio has decreased by 4.8 percentage points. According to the same caliber, the area of intentional cotton planting is reduced by 6 million 500 thousand mu to less than 70 million mu (69 million 659 thousand acres), and a small number of farmers are still waiting and waiting.

2. The changing characteristics of intent cotton planting. First, the three cotton regions showed a decreasing trend (Table 2), the Yangtze River was reduced by 9.1%, the annulus ratio increased by 4.3 percentage points; the Yellow River decreased by 10.5%, the annulus ratio increased by 5.6 percentage points; the northwest decreased by 6.9%, the annulus ratio increased by 3.1 percentage points, of which the southern Xinjiang reduced 4.3%, the link was basically flat; the northern Xinjiang reduced by 10%, the ring ratio increased by 6.7 percentage points. The two is the reduction of more or less. According to the growth rate: Yu increased by 9.6%, but the ratio narrowed by 8.6 percentage points; from 2.3% in January to 9.6% in March, the new increased from 3.3% in January to 6.7% in March. According to the reduction: Qin minus 32.2%, Jin 22%, Jin 19.7%, Lu 14.5%, Ji 14.1%, Gan 13%, Wan 11.2%, e minus 10.2%, Chuan 9.1%, Xiang minus 4.5%, Jiangxi reduced 4.2%.

Two. Cotton planting intention Reduction of main causes

1, CCPPI continued to decline. China's cotton production boom index (CCPPI) for the first time in 2012 showed a sharp decline in the past 10 years, down from 235 in January 2012 to 185 in October (the highest 330 points in the past 10 years), and back to 199 in December. The 2013 year will be hovering at 200 points, dropping to 185 in January this year and 195 in February.

The analysis points out that the prominent problems facing the cotton industry are three shocks, namely quantity impact, price impact and quality shock. Excessive inhibition of production, cotton planting area showed a downward trend, according to the same caliber, it is estimated that cotton planting area will be reduced by 6 million 500 thousand mu.

2, the temporary purchase and storage policy is facing a dilemma. The temporary purchase and storage policy promulgated in 2011 and 2012 effectively protected the interests of cotton farmers, ensured the smooth operation of the cotton market in the era of crisis, successfully curbed the sharp decline in cotton prices, avoided the difficulty in selling cotton, and really contributed to the protection of the interests of farmers. However, the temporary purchase and storage policy is also a sharp double-edged sword. In 2011, domestic cotton prices were higher than international prices, "inverted" 5639 yuan / ton, in 2012, "upside down" 4411 yuan / ton, in January this year, "upside down" 5536 yuan / ton. In 2012, the export price of the textile and apparel industry was greatly reduced by the price inversion. In 2012, it exported 254 billion 920 million US dollars, an increase of only 2.8% over the same period last year.

In 2011 and March 2012, the state issued a temporary purchase and storage policy, but this year it did not. According to the requirements of this year's document "improving agricultural product market regulation" and "timely start up the temporary storage and purchase of agricultural products such as corn, soybean, rapeseed, cotton, sugar and other products", although there is no announcement this spring, if there is a sharp decline in the price of autumn harvest season, there will be a possibility of starting temporary storage.

3. Seed cotton price 8 yuan / kg is relatively reasonable. As far as the whole country is concerned, this year's cotton planting area in Henan, Shandong, Southwest Shandong and Jiangsu is restored. This sends out a critical signal, that is, farmers' seed cotton sells at 8 yuan / kg level. Although the lowest grain price is rising, the price of cotton and grain is decreasing. The analysis shows that climate anomalies, especially autumn wet, lead to the reduction of cotton planting area for many years in the Huang Huai plain, which is expected to end. The main reason is that the high yield has been restored. In 2012, the yield of seed cotton was over 250 kg / mu in this area, and the feeling of farmers was that "cotton is getting more and more quality."

As far as the whole country is concerned, seed cotton sells for 8 yuan / kg and 250 kg per mu of seed cotton and 300 kg / mu of Northwest inner cotton area is the critical level. Below this level or threshold cotton planting is not cost-effective.