China Faces Unprecedented Financial And Industrial Wars

Lang Xianping: China faces unprecedented financial and industrial war dialogue. Lang Xianping summit economic forum [Professor Lang Xianping]: I am very glad to come to Ningbo to talk about the economic situation and leadership.

Can you hear me?

Or can't you hear it?!

Then I'll speak a little louder.

The topic I want to talk about today is closely related to your life.

Just mentioned to me that Professor Lang's remarks are very critical, and in a word, accuracy is more important.

If you are concerned about my remarks, you will find that since the beginning of last year, until now, the trend of China's economy has almost changed with my pace, including stock market!

Even the property market is not my foresight, but after a lot of data research, I came to an inevitable conclusion.

I remember from the beginning of last year to the middle of the year, the real estate market in Shenzhen was very popular. At that time, the media reported that the people were more confident in our economic development, and the economic development in Shenzhen was more successful, so Shenzhen real estate would be hot.

Do you still remember my answer?

I am wrong. The real estate in Shenzhen is so hot because Shenzhen's economic development is even more recession.

It is because entrepreneurs do not want to.

Therefore, they should invest money in enterprises, do not invest, and take out speculation, so the reason for the rise of housing prices in various regions of China is that the economy is worse, not better.

When I said this, many people opposed it, or even did not understand it.

By January this year, the data released fully proved our view that the enterprises that failed in Shenzhen almost ranked first in the country.

That is to say, many entrepreneurs find that the business environment they face is deteriorating rapidly in the course of business operation. So he does not want to be an enterprise. What is he doing?

Speculators on speculation!

This is the main reason for the sharp rise in real estate prices in Guangdong.

Also a few months ago, I said, the price of the central estate in various districts is still strong, and the price of nearby housing will drop. Why?

These enterprises do not take the money to do business, and investment is definitely buying houses.

Why does the middle price fall?

Because of macro-control, people who really want housing can not afford it.

In the first month, Shanghai's real estate trend was high school and low price real estate.

But I think high priced housing is still strong and low price is falling.

High prices will still be strong, how long will it last?

Instead of looking at the trend of the economy and looking at the direction of his capital flow, he has to see the direction of his capital flow. In recent years, the economic trend has been very chaotic. Even the management has divided the policies of the future real estate. Even the government has appealed to open up foreigners to engage in real estate and give more financial help to the real estate. If the real estate price falls sharply, it will inevitably bring more serious financial crisis, which will affect the financial crisis and the whole Chinese economy is extremely complicated.

Today, I would like to take this opportunity to talk to you about how entrepreneurs should understand China's economy in this complex economic environment. Last year, I told an entrepreneur that if you feel sad for 07 years, 08 years will be painful.

I am talking about the fact that this year must be worse than last year. In the 05 year, the net profit margin of China's manufacturing industry still has about 10%, 06 years 5%, 07 years 2%, 08 years should be negative, and net profit margin should be negative, 09 years?

It should be worse!

This is the future I set for you.

Why do I have such a judgement? Because our manufacturing industry has never experienced a unique period in the history of reform and opening up.

This phenomenon deserves serious attention from all the entrepreneurs here.

I want to talk to you about your most concerned topic. Do you think that the two provinces in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are likely to engage in high technology?

What do you think your future is?

You told me.

So at the beginning of today's speech, I asked so many questions that I would like to use my research results to string all these phenomena together, and there is also one of the most concerned questions, that is, the stock market. At the end of last year, in Beijing, someone asked me how to make the stock market go. According to my economic theory, I did not have to go up. Of course, many of the people who threw away were too smart to have such judgments.

Over the past two days, many academics representing officials still speak. Of course, their speeches are all wrong.

What are the difficulties faced by many enterprises?

The essence of macroeconomic regulation and control is one size fits all!

What do you know?

From the end of last year to the end of last year, the macro-control policy has basically brought a major crisis, I said two years ago, it is unfortunate that I said all the words, what kind of crisis, please think!

Do you think the Chinese enterprises are overheated today?!

If Chinese enterprises are overheating, how can you be so sad?

Even for entrepreneurs in manufacturing, what you feel is pure flute rather than overheating.

So why is the government saying that it is overheating, or even using such a powerful way to control inflation?

This month, we have a small country in Asia, Vietnam, a serious financial crisis, and the fuse comes from the inflation time and space in this country. Inflation is as high as 25%. Ordinary people see that the Vietnamese currency continues to depreciate. They change dollars, change euros, exchange currencies for other countries, or even exchange for gold.

In the end, it was very difficult to change the dollar, otherwise, what would you do if you changed?

A lot of hoarding is being started, hoping to preserve value.

Vietnam's local banks are reluctant to represent real estate buyers, and do not want to use Vietnam's currency to do devaluation.

The impact of this phenomenon has made our government more determined to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control.

Because our government believes that China's problem today is excess liquidity.

You may ask me, what is excess liquidity?

To put it simply, excess liquidity means too much money on your hands!

When you have more money on your hands, buying a building will create a housing bubble. If you buy stocks, you will create a stock market bubble. You buy products that cause inflation.

So you can explain all the phenomena that we see at the moment with excess liquidity, including last year's property bubble, stock market bubble and inflation, so our macroeconomic regulation is the continuation of the tightening policy over the past four years to this day.

You can be confused in 07 years, because the property market bubble, stock market bubble and inflation can be explained by simple money. But this year, you can't see the housing bubble. You are worried that the property market will fall and the stock market need not be mentioned.

The stock market plummeted, 2700, 2800, and possibly down.

Is that excess liquidity?!

Inflation is indeed, perhaps more serious.

93 days ago, the price of oil rose to 6 yuan more than two liters. Do you think it is enough? Do you know how much the Hongkong 93 oil is?

It's more than 20 yuan.

Comrades, can you imagine what kind of tragedy it would be if we went up to that point?

Do you still use excess liquidity to explain?

The current economic phenomenon has bankrupted the theory of excess liquidity.

At the end of last year, I was interviewed by Southern Weekly magazine. He made such forewords. When the experts and scholars and government officials all thought that the property market bubble and stock market bubble, inflation was caused by excess liquidity. Professor Lang said no!

If Professor Lang is right, the whole country is wrong.

By June 2008, I am sorry to tell you!

Everything is wrong!

I am right!

Otherwise, you will not take the time to listen to my speech!

Why?

As a result of today's phenomenon, I would like to tell you that today's phenomenon is caused by the rapid deterioration of investment and business environment in manufacturing industry from 05 years to 06 years.

So why did the stock price go up in 06 years? It is definitely not because the share reform is successful. The inevitable failure of the stock reform is very clear in the 05 financial program.

In the 08 years, you know that I am right. Why did the stock price rise in 06 years?

Not a successful stock reform.

But what?

It is the opportunity to invest in the business environment and allow entrepreneurs to give up investment. The money that should be invested in the stock market has caused the stock price to rise. Since the beginning of 06 years, we have smelled the flavor of the economic flute instead of the overheated economy. This is my theory.

Why do many experts and scholars diagnose that China's economy is overheating?

I tell you, that is because the departments concerned with the GDP project promoted by local governments are basically overheated, such as 07 years of real estate, steel, cement, performance projects, image projects, financing banks and so on. These sectors are overheated and overheated because local governments push GDP projects to overheat them.

This is 20 - 30%, and the other 70 - 80% sectors are basically underdeveloped.

That is to say, China's economy today is the world's unique and unique economic environment of two yuan. We are overheating and cold at the same time, and the government related departments are overheating. The departments concerned with private enterprises are basically cold.

Why did the economic situation deteriorate rapidly in June this year?

That is to say, macroeconomic regulation has produced a series of problems.

Let us consider, what is the result of the government's promotion of macro adjustment under the economic environment of two yuan?

For example, to raise interest rates and raise the reserve ratio, what is the blow to the two yuan economy? This kind of macro adjustment is helpful to excess liquidity, but today's problem is not excess liquidity, the whole goal is wrong.

If the target is mistaken, the real question is what will be the result of the macro control of excess liquidity under the two yuan economic environment, which can thoroughly blow up the entrepreneurs through three pipelines.

The first pipeline is banks, which recover funds from the underdeveloped private sector, and call the overheated local governments to continue to engage in local infrastructure. That is why the growth rate of our broad money is still at a high level of 18% over the past four years. Why do so many currencies not give enough benefits to entrepreneurs?

Because the money has collected more money from your hands through the banking system, and has made local construction for the local departments, so that the colder sectors are colder and the overheated departments become hotter.

The second pipeline is the private entrepreneur who is in the undercooling department. What kind of environment does he face?

Interest rates continue to rise, bank reserve requirements continue to rise, exchange rate continues to rise, and the labor contract law, here I want to make a statement, the labor contract law itself is of great significance, I believe that the whole nation, including entrepreneurs and workers, will agree with the essence of the labor law.

The problem is such a serious statutory issue that it has not been discussed and proved. What is more serious is that it has been launched without any pilot.

This statutory, good statutory and hasty push further undermines the investment and business environment of manufacturing industry.

Coupled with the rising exchange rate, the macro adjustment, exchange rate, labor contract law and other factors, so that these undercooled sectors of the manufacturing entrepreneurs can no longer go up, so that his profit margins decline year by year, he did not want to do, so he invested a lot of money should not invest, from the cold sector pulled out, into the superheated sector to speculate in stocks, which is the beginning of 06 years of stock price rise, is also the 06 year the main reason for the rise in housing prices, that is because in the two yuan economic environment, the supercooled sector's funds pferred to the overheated sector led to, is not a surplus of liquidity.

The third pipeline, I call it Haier phenomenon, Haier raised 1 million 500 thousand of its funds to do real estate itself. Many media said that it was Haier's strategy to start again. I said it was wrong. It was Haier who couldn't do it. He worked in the undercooling department for home appliance manufacturing. He could not go on. Like Haier, the manufacturing industry began to take back a lot of money, into the superheated sector, and dry up the developer, because the industry could not go on.

The operation of the first bank, the handling of the second entrepreneurs themselves, and the operation of the third companies like Haier have made the capital flow from the undercooled manufacturing industry to the overheated sector, resulting in a serious capital reversal phenomenon. That is why the four year macro adjustment will fail. The reason is that the undercooling sector has become more and more cold because of the loss of funds. This is your current situation and overheating.