Men'S Clothing Will Be Lower Than Expected In Autumn And Winter.

< p > week review: 1. Industry tracking: (1) the annual report of the seven wolves has raised concerns about the men's clothing industry. Last week, seven wolves were the first to disclose the annual report in the men's wear. Although the performance of the 12 years is still growing steadily, the company's outlook for 13 years is more pessimistic. In addition, men's clothing and autumn and winter orders will be generally lower than expected (the number of reported birds dropped, the decline of 10% of the nine herding kings, and the decline of 15-20% by the seven wolves), causing the market to worry about men's clothing and home textile plates.

On the same day, the seven wolves fell by 9.39%, and the home textiles of Luo Lai dropped by 5.86%, while the nine herd kings fell 4.35%.

We remain cautious about the men's clothing industry. We expect to be at the bottom of the adjustment in 13 years.

In March, the composite PMI rose to 50.9, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > industry PMI was 54.1, a target= "_blank" "target=" > clothing > Industry > 52.2.

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< p > strong > PMI is lower than the historical average and market expectation, and the recovery is weak.

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< p > > Company tracking: (1) bird tracking: it is expected that the number of orders will decline in the 13 years, and the sales revenue will increase by about 10% in the 1-2 months and the digit growth in March. The hajis terminal will grow by about 20-30%.

2. 9 Mu Wang tracking: it is estimated that the order will fall by nearly 10% in the autumn and winter of 13 years, and the growth rate will be slightly increased in the first quarter.

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< p > AOKANG international tracking: it is estimated that the expansion rate of stores in the 12 years is about 20%, but the same store growth rate is decreasing.

It is estimated that in the 13 quarter, the quarterly earnings will increase by a single digit and net profit will increase by 0-10%.

(4) the annual report of the seven wolves: 12 years EPS increased by 36.1% for 1.11 yuan, and 10 yuan to 5 yuan for 1 yuan, and its performance was in line with expectations.

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< p > by the decline of terminal profits and the weakening of market consumption, the operation pressure of joining the whole exists.

By the end of 12, there was a net increase of 31 to 4007 stores. It is estimated that 13 orders for autumn and winter will join orders to drop by about 10-15%.

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< p > expected quarterly revenue is basically flat, and annual revenue and performance are falling.

For 13-15 years, EPS was 0.98/1.10/1.23 yuan, corresponding to PE 14.3/12.7/11.4 times.

Search for special report: in 12 years, EPS increased by 57.5% for 0.95 yuan, and 10 yuan for 5 yuan for 5 yuan, and its performance was in line with expectations.

In the 12 year, the shop speed has slowed down, and there are 263 to 1784 stores in the whole year. This year, the company will shift from the original rapid extension to the endogenous management improvement mode, but the effect needs further observation.

It is estimated that the growth rate of 13 autumn and winter orders will slow down to about 25%, maintaining 13-15 years EPS to 1.23/1.62/2.13 yuan, corresponding to PE 15.9/12.1/9.2 times, and maintaining holdings.

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< p > last week, the trend of textile and garment sector was weaker than that of the market.

Textile and apparel index fell 2.34% last week, down 1.34% from the Shen Wan A index.

Among them, the textile manufacturing index fell 1.33%, relative to Shen Wan A index fell 0.33%; clothing home textile index fell 3.23%, relative to Shen Wan A index fell 2.32%.

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< p > industry basic data: 1. In March, the textile industry PMI rose to 54.1, and the clothing industry PMI rose to 52.2.

Last week, the price of cotton and chemical fiber mixed with each other: domestic 328 spot spot rose slightly last week at 19383 yuan / ton, Zheng cotton main contract reported 20220 yuan / ton, up 0.4%.

Polyester staple fell 0.7% to 10050 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber leveled at 13800 yuan / ton, nylon sliced fell 2.7% to 20700 yuan / ton.

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P > our point of view: Men's clothing will be lower than expected in autumn and winter, and it is expected that a quarterly report clothing category is lower than expected.

Under the background of terminal sales slump, the clothing price drop trend is obvious, stock going is still the main keynote. It is expected that the growth of revenue and net profit of a quarterly garment enterprise will continue to slow down, the performance is facing low points, the market consensus is expected to continue to decline, export recovery, the difference between inside and outside cotton prices narrowed, and the textile enterprises' operation improvement will be improved.

Concerned about the manufacturing process in the recovery process leader Lu Tai A, Bailong East, Huafu color spinning and Weixing shares; recommended to pay attention to YOUNGOR, it is estimated that 13 years of real estate business entered the settlement outbreak period, the dividend rate is high; long term optimistic growth of the daily chemical giant Shanghai Jahwa.

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