The High And Low RMB Exchange Rate

< p > April 2013, in a short span of a month, the "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as "RMB" has a record high against the US dollar /a > nine days, a monthly increase of 0.77%, which is three times the increase of last year.

This year, the yuan has appreciated by about 1% against the US dollar.

Since 2005, the yuan has appreciated more than 32% against the US dollar.

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< p > not only the appreciation of the US dollar, but also the faster appreciation of RMB against the package currency.

Recently, the international a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > the market is changing, and the major currencies such as Japanese yen and Sterling depreciated sharply, resulting in a "passive" appreciation of the renminbi.

According to the bank for International Settlements, the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi in the first quarter of this year rose to 3.5%, and last year it appreciated by only about 2%.

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< p > although the RMB appreciation is swift and violent, there is still a divergence of opinion on whether the RMB exchange rate is high or low in the international public opinion field.

The International Monetary Fund said in its April 16th world economic outlook report that the RMB exchange rate is still undervalued.

Just the day before, the US Treasury issued a semi annual exchange rate report that the renminbi is still "seriously undervalued" against the US dollar.

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"P," said Huang Yiping, chief economist of Barclays Capital, UK. "It is also seriously underestimated. Is the official of the US Treasury Department written in a dream?" behind this ridicule is the judgment of many economists that the appreciation of the renminbi is close to the right place.

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"P" is based on the fact that the main argument for judging the undervaluation of the renminbi, which is too high in China's trade surplus, is no longer valid.

In the past two years, the proportion of China's trade surplus in gross domestic product has dropped from 6% to 3%, reaching the internationally recognized "equilibrium" level.

Moreover, the current trade statistics method also overestimated China's surplus. China's trade surplus with the United States will drop by 25% in accordance with the new trade statistics released by OECD and WTO in January.

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< p > basically, the exchange rate is affected by multiple factors such as economic strength, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign trade < /a > revenue and expenditure, capital flow and growth prospects. Whether the RMB exchange rate is high or low, no matter whether academia or political and economic circles are hard to conclude.

In the international public opinion field, the RMB exchange rate has never been a simple economic topic, but also mixed with other complicated factors such as politics and diplomacy.

Because of this, there will be so many arguments about the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > but the essence of the problem is not the difference between the exchange rate figures, but the perfection of the RMB exchange rate pricing mechanism.

Therefore, the discussion of the RMB exchange rate should go beyond the dispute of high and low level, and focus on improving the system construction.

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< p > the purpose of perfecting the exchange rate mechanism is to maintain a balanced exchange rate of RMB.

Equilibrium is a changing dynamic process.

Past experience has shown that the overvalued or undervalued exchange rate hurts the economy.

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< p > if the RMB exchange rate is overvalued, it will damage the interests of export enterprises, affect financial stability and damage the real economy.

As China and its trading partners have embedded deeply in the international industrial chain, China's economic and financial risks will soon spread to the whole world.

Therefore, for the United States, ignoring the economic reality and forcing the appreciation of the renminbi will eventually bring about the result of "double lose".

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< p > if the RMB exchange rate is undervalued, it will not only exacerbate the short-term risks of domestic inflation and economic overheating, but also hinder the long-term progress of China's industrial upgrading and economic pformation, and boost trade surplus and exacerbate international imbalances, which are against the global rebalancing target after the financial crisis.

Therefore, blindly opposing the appreciation may isolate China from the tide of reform.

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< p > no matter the external argument and noise, or the interests of internal departments and industries, we should not affect the pace and pace of our reform.

It is in China's long-term interests to improve the exchange rate pricing mechanism and ensure that the RMB exchange rate level approaches a dynamic equilibrium.

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