What Fetters The Reform Path Of Interest Rate Exchange Rate Marketization?

< p style= "text-align: left" > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > interest rate exchange rate marketization reform < /a > speed is just in time.

In May 6th, the Executive Council of the State Council deployed nine key tasks to deepen the reform of the economic system in 2013. "Steadily introducing the market-oriented reform measures of interest rate and exchange rate" ranks first among financial reforms.

These two reforms are part of the "reform project that has been spotted, qualified, and launched" in the conference. If a breakthrough is achieved, it will surely play a significant "leverage" role in improving the market economy system.

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< p > as the most important capital price in the market economy, the market-oriented reform orientation of interest rate and exchange rate has been clarified since the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the establishment of a market economic system in 1992.

After more than 20 years of exploration, two reforms have made important progress.

At present, the interest rate of money market, bond market, financial product and domestic foreign currency deposit and loan has been marketization. The central bank only manages the upper limit of deposit interest rate and the lower limit of loan interest rate, and the floating range of deposit and loan interest rate has further expanded.

Exchange rate has begun to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and reference to a basket of currencies.

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< p > nowadays, the unfinished events of the two reforms are all "hard headed": to further relax and eventually liberate the management of the deposit and loan < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > interest rate < /a >, so as to reduce and eventually cancel the intervention of the central bank to the exchange rate formation.

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The reform of these key links is difficult to break through, which leads to the inefficient allocation of funds and the decline of the effectiveness of regulation, which has hamper the upgrading of China's economic quality. P

Since 2009, in order to cope with the global financial crisis, China has implemented an "moderately loose monetary policy" and has seen an unprecedented easing of capital. Although it helped to revive China's economy earlier, it also led to asset price bubbles and overcapacity in many industries.

The commercial feasibility of many large-scale commercial banks is doubtful.

This situation has complicated institutional causes, and there is no hard constraint on the cost of capital so that banks' "drought and flood protection" is also an important reason.

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The price tool of "P" is not mature, and it also seriously affects the effective pmission of monetary policy and the effectiveness of macro regulation.

The Central Bank of China has always emphasized the combination of quantitative and price control tools, but quantitative tools are more frequently used.

In the context of continuous high growth of foreign exchange reserves and a flood of liquidity, it is necessary to take advantage of the two evils.

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< p > however, the environment affecting monetary policy has changed.

China's current account surplus accounted for less than a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > GDP < /a > the proportion decreased year by year, from 10.1% in 2007 to 2.6% in 2012, and the growth rate of foreign exchange reserve dropped.

We should rely more heavily on price instruments in the future.

Besides, various financing channels and financing tools are constantly emerging. The proportion of loans in the structure of social financing scale has dropped from 92% in 2002 to 52% in 2012.

The central bank must find a price instrument that can be smoothly pmitted as soon as possible. It is urgent to raise the interest rate and the exchange rate marketization.

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The market reform of interest rate and exchange rate stops and has not yet been completed. There are many reasons for this. There are some prerequisites for the interest game and reform of all sectors, but they are also subject to excessive worry and inherent methodological fetters. P

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< p > < strong > one is too concerned about the impact of reform on the micro subject.

< /strong > in fact, the exchange rate reform in 2005 showed that the adaptability of the enterprises far exceeded the government's expectations.

The RMB appreciation has led to the fact that some low value-added processing trade enterprises have been eliminated. However, more enterprises have achieved technological upgrading and efficiency improvement, and high value-added and high-end R & D departments in the industrial chain have entered China.

This is the proper meaning of the upgrading of industry and the pformation of economic structure.

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Second, when p is in conflict with the medium and long term reforms in the short term, it tends to make the reform give way to the crisis response. "Strong"

Between /strong and July 2008 to June 2010, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar almost pegged to the US dollar.

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< p > from the course of 30 years of reform, it is extremely difficult to wait for the time window for reform.

Reform is mostly under crisis or risk.

The key is to weigh the costs and benefits of reform and make a decisive choice.

At present, the proceeds of the marketization reform of the interest rate exchange rate are clear as soon as possible. The risk is that the major developed economies adopt quantitative easing policy, the global liquidity is loose, the exchange rate reform does not exclude the expectation of unilateral appreciation, and the existence of domestic and foreign market spreads may lead to more "hot money" inflows.

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< p > we should see that at present, interest rate and exchange rate marketization are facing favorable opportunities.

A relatively moderate inflation level is conducive to the marketization of interest rates.

At this time, the interest rate volatility will be enlarged. Commercial banks will have two-way pressure in pricing. If interest rates are high or low, short-term market turbulence will also be avoided, such as vicious competition and large-scale deposit moving.

With the improvement of the balance of payments imbalance, the external pressure of RMB appreciation has been reduced. This reform is in line with the principle that China's policy makers emphasize initiative rather than external force.

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< p > of course, the marketization reform of interest rate and exchange rate is not "putting everything into practice", but also needs to push forward other supporting reforms, including the establishment of a deposit insurance system which has not yet been included in this year's key work, and the relaxation of private capital entering the banking sector and the ownership reform of state-owned banks.

Only if we establish a deposit insurance system as soon as possible, can we deal with the risk of financial institutions' collapse and protect depositors' rights and interests in the process of interest rate liberalization.

Relaxing private capital entering the banking industry and reducing the proportion of state-owned shares of state-owned banks will help to form a fully competitive market environment and create conditions for the formation of market-oriented interest rates and exchange rates.

The interest rates of a few large state-owned banks holding pricing power are not real market prices.

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< p > > "doing things one by one" is the latest expectation of the decision-making level for reform.

The reason for continuing to delay is not difficult to find, but it will turn initiative into passivity, gradual progress and no control.

Lessons learned before the reform of interest rate and exchange rate should be carried out according to a clear time node.

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