Cotton Futures Have Become "Chicken Ribs", Sharp Decline In Positions And Low Turnover.

< p > < strong > holdings decreased by 60% in the past month, < /strong > < /p >

< p > as of yesterday's closing, < a > ZHENG Mian < /a > 1309, the position of the contract was 36584 hands, 1401 of the contract position 50 thousand hand in the beginning.

Since the beginning of May, the position of Zheng cotton's main contract has dropped from about 150 thousand hands. At present, it can barely maintain 50 thousand hand holdings, with a drop of more than 60%.

< /p >

< p > between 2010 and 2011, cotton was the absolute "Star" variety of Zhengshang, and the average daily position was between 300 thousand and 400 thousand.

In May 10, 2011, the Zheng cotton 09 contract set a daily trading volume of 3 million 200 thousand hands. But yesterday, the trading volume of Zheng cotton 1309 contract was only 3982 hands, and the volume of pactions was only 1/800 of the peak period.

< /p >

< p > Yongan futures said that the current cotton futures are seriously out of touch with the cotton spot.

As 90% of spot cotton resources enter the treasury system through collection and storage, the cotton resources available for futures delivery on the market are very limited.

By the end of June 14th, the cotton warehouse receipt and effective forecast of Zhengshang merchants had been converted into 201 pieces, which was calculated to be 8442 tons according to 42 tons per warehouse receipt.

In the same period, the 1309 main positions of Zheng cotton were 42996 hands, 214980 tons of virtual cotton, and 25 times the ratio of virtual to real.

< /p >

< p > the current situation is that after the May contract was delisted, the September contract was faced with the scarcity of warehouse receipts.

Under the helplessness of Zheng Shang, it has raised the margin of the 1309 contract to 18% again since its settlement in June 14th.

It reflects that the current exchange can only reduce the risk of squeezing in September by raising the guarantee money.

< /p >

< p > "Zheng Shang once again raised the margin of CF1309 contract to 18%, resulting in continuous capital leaving." Zheng cotton liquidity is worth worrying about.

Founder futures said.

< /p >

< p > < strong > cotton purchasing and storage policy needs to be changed < /strong > < /p >.

< p > < strong > Yongan futures believes that the cotton purchase and storage policy is facing great difficulties at present.

< /strong > < /p >.

< p > on the one hand, the current purchasing and storage price is not enough to mobilize cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting cotton, and the annual decline of cotton planting area can illustrate this point.

In 2012, the area of cotton planting in China decreased by about 6% to about 74 million 80 thousand mu, and according to the May cotton production survey of China cotton information network, the sowing area of cotton in 2013 was 70 million 650 thousand mu, which was 4.6% lower than that in the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > on the other hand, the high cotton price caused by the policy of purchasing and storing has seriously damaged the interests of enterprises such as a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a >.

China is an important exporter of textiles "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "clothing" /a ". However, the cotton textile industry is facing serious challenges. Besides the weak growth of export market demand, the erosion of RMB exchange rate, the fierce competition in the international market, the increasing competition in trade protectionism and so on, the increasing cost of labor and raw materials has made China's traditional trade advantage lose.

< /p >

< p > it is understood that since 2011, the acquisition policy of national cotton reserves has led to domestic cotton prices higher than the international market of 4500 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic storage price is 20400 yuan / ton, while the international CotlookA index is RMB 1%, the tariff price is 14889 yuan / ton, and the difference between inside and outside cotton is about 4500 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > the head of a large cotton spinning enterprise in China told reporters that this year's fixed price of 20400 yuan / ton was determined to maintain the high price of domestic cotton.

However, the inventory level of state cotton as high as 9 million tons is higher than the annual cotton consumption in China.

The pressure on the financial sector caused by the impairment of stocks and direct losses faced by China's cotton reserves has become a heavy burden.

Moreover, price distortions are also leading to a series of consequences, such as corruption in import quotas, loss of pricing function in cotton futures market, and so on.

< /p >

< p > founder futures also said that the cotton purchase and storage policy is causing the distortion of the whole chain, and the high price storage mode is already at a dead end.

The protection and subsidy of cotton farmers and the protection of cotton planting need to be reconsidered.

< /p >

< p > Liu Xiaonan, deputy director of the State Economic and Trade Commission of the national development and Reform Commission, said recently that China will improve the regulation of the cotton market and establish a long-term mechanism for the cotton industry.

The new cotton standard will be implemented in the new cotton year. There will be new standards for the purchase and storage. The new price difference and pricing method will also be announced as soon as possible.

< /p >

From P's point of view, the adjustment and change of our current cotton purchase and storage system is not far away.

< /p >