Investment Comment: It Is Expected That In 2013, The Performance Of Smith Barney Clothing Will Not Improve Significantly.

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＜p＞　　客觀上，公司受累于消費疲軟以及商業環境、競爭環境的持續惡化:＜a target="_blank" href="http://www.91se91.com/"＞服裝＜/a＞企業的經營表現及業績情況基本與經濟同步，公司持續受到2011年下半年以來的消費疲軟的沖擊;商業環境面臨成本持續攀升的壓力、競爭環境面臨國際品牌與電子商務的夾擊，經營環境的惡化進一步拖累了業內企業，延長了行業復蘇的時間，是拖累公司2012年業績的客觀原因;公司質地優秀，對于品牌營銷及產品設計的理解和執行領先于國內同行，但公司自上市以來，戰略規劃及執行略顯激進，直營門店、新品牌建設均給公司帶來巨大的人力、組織架構、資金等全方面的挑戰，在取得一定效果的同時，決策成本偏高帶來了后續的收縮與調整壓力，這是公司業績不理想的主觀原因;消費疲軟是公司面臨的最大挑戰，公司需要主動去適應這種變化，

MB will shrink to the previous product line, that is, return to the men's wear, women's wear, children's wear, accessories four major product lines, reduce SKU; MC will revoke the Department's model and return to the product line mode; the future pformation is reflected in the upgrading of the terminal image; in 2013, the total number of stores remains in the existing scale, fully embodies the company's experience and innovation in the shopping experience; the above adjustment idea is difficult to complete in the short term, and it is difficult to achieve short-term results; the company's 2013 business strategy is still dominated by adjustment, and the extensive slowdown will not contribute to the growth of revenue. Endogenous growth will require the company's long time to pay in return, and it is expected that the company's 2013 profit and loss account will generally extend the trend of the 2012, and the probability of obvious improvement is not great. Whether or not to adapt quickly depends on the direction and strategy of the company. But in 2013, the company's strategic planning was not clear: the company plans to begin to pform from endogenetic expansion to endogenous growth in 2013, according to the two major brands' business strategy in 2013.

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< p > < strong > profit forecast and < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > investment > /a > recommendation < /strong > /p >

< p > expected 2013-2015 year revenue increased by -0.79%, 5%, 7.31% to 9 billion 434 million yuan, 9 billion 906 million yuan, and 10 billion 630 million yuan respectively. Net profit increased by -9.35%, 10.32%, 11.54% to 770 million yuan, 850 million yuan, 950 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS, namely, 950 million yuan, Yuan Yuan, and Yuan Yuan; and maintaining overweight rating: the company will be in deep adjustment stage in 2013, consumption is weak and business environment is not optimistic. These will lengthen the adjustment time, and the company has obvious advantages in product design and direct channel, but the adjustment effect is expected to be short in the short term, and the adjustment of the stock price of the previous company is larger. At present, the corresponding PE of the share price is about ten times, maintaining the company's overweight rating.

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