The Retail Market Of Textile Industry Is Not Good Enough.

< p > basic data points: Although the discount rate is still large, but the 1-2 month < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > clothing > /a > terminal retail is relatively general, 50 key retail enterprises in January, clothing retail sales fell 15% year-on-year, the Spring Festival and low base number in February led to a number of recovery, 1-2 months, an increase of 6% over the same period, the growth rate is lower than 12Q4, but slightly higher than the same period last year; gold and silver jewelry is relatively good. In the 1-2 months, the export of textiles and clothing increased by 26% and 35% respectively. The marked rebound in growth rate may be the reason for statistics and replenishment, and the sustainability remains to be seen. The price of gold has fallen since March, and the average price of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp > cotton > /a > has continued to rise slightly, but the price of cotton has risen significantly since February, and the difference between cotton price inside and outside has convergence. < /p >
< p > A stock company tracking: 1, February, the terminal situation is general, and a quarterly report is generally lower than expected. Fuanna: in 1 and February, the income was close to but slightly below 10% growth. It is expected that the big promotion in March has no explosive force in the past years, but the profit situation is acceptable. Q1 revenue growth is slightly higher than 10%, profit growth may be higher than 15%; card slave: 1, February revenue growth of 35%, autumn and winter orders will grow by 21%. Q1 revenue growth is expected to be around 30%, with profit growth of 25-30%. Pathfinder: terminal sales increased by 41% in 1-2 months, and the sales rate reached more than 60% at the end of February. Q1 revenue is expected to grow by more than 30%, with profit growth of 40%. < /p >
< p > seven wolves: 1-2 month straight camp increased by 18%, but due to the late Spring Festival factors. Q1 revenue growth is expected to exceed 10%, and profit growth can exceed 10%. We expect there will be 10% or more growth in terminal water. The management of inventory structure is very concerned. The problem of inventory control has not been clearly defined. Luo Lai: in 1 and February, the number of Direct stores was flat or slightly increased, but shipments declined slightly. Q1 revenue is expected to be about equal. Search special: the autumn order will increase by about 25%, and there will be pressure on the terminal winter stock. < /p >
< p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: since the 2012Q4, Hong Kong stocks have not substantially improved in terms of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > clothing brand < /a > growth of the same store. There are pressures on the 13 years' spring and summer and autumn channel inventory in llon. It is expected that the autumn order will continue to grow negatively in spring and summer, but it is expected to stabilize in winter. In 12 years, Li Bang will drop 2% in the same store, while XinDa will increase 8% in the same quarter as at the end of February, while the mainland of Zhou Dafu will be down 7% in the same month. In Adidas12, the income of the Greater China region increased by 15%; H&M shared 5 consecutive months of negative growth; the emerging market led to an increase of 16% in Inditex12; Gap12Q4 in North America was better than overseas; LimitedBrands2 increased 3% in the same month. < /p >
< p > trend review: this year, the industry index rose slightly behind, slightly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Brand Company generally callback (only old Feng Xiang and other good performance), and the trend is significantly weaker than the manufacturing company; in the first half of March, the industry index decline is still less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, but Brand Company still generally callback and a larger margin, manufacturing companies are relatively small. In the first half of March, H-share Brand Company also had a majority of callbacks. < /p >
< p > Investment Strategy: retail sales in 1-2 months are not good enough. Franchisee's confidence is hard to recover. The Brand Company's 1 quarter performance is expected to be lower than that in spring and summer < a > the order will < /a >, and the growth rate of orders in autumn and winter will also generally slow down. The industry's investment opportunities in the first quarter were generally rather dull. In the first half of the year, the proposal is relatively configurable. It is a product with more definite performance growth and relatively manageable management risk. If there is a sufficient adjustment, we believe that the absolute return will be guaranteed throughout the year. Including Lao Fengxiang, Carnon, Pathfinder, Fu Anna, etc., the first quarter of a long base is high, but it is suggested that the second half should be the focus. However, the fundamentals of manufacturing industry have not deteriorated, and at the same time, the valuation is low. They can pay close attention to companies such as Weixing, Lu Tai, Huafu and Bailong. < /p >
< p > risk hint: economic slowdown affects consumer demand; cost increase reduces profitability; external demand does not affect exports. < /p >