The Textile Raw Material Market Is Deeply Entangled By The Cloudy Cloudy Sky.

< p > in the two quarter of this year, domestic a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > raw material market continues to go forward in contradiction.

At the end of the quarter, domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to operate in the opposite direction. The difference between them was basically maintained at the top of 4000 yuan / ton; the polyester, viscose, and nylon products were generally lowered, falling by 0.48% to 4.08%; acrylic products showed a weak and steady trend, and the price center of gravity changed little; only Spandex Products recorded a 1.72% to 9.54% increase on the strength of their tight supply, which is the three consecutive quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of last year.

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< p > May and June, the textile terminal gradually entered the off-season market, and the price, sales volume and profit of the grey fabric declined.

In particular, the situation of conventional products is more severe, and the price trend of products is also weak due to overcapacity. For example, the price of 190T polyester taffeta is reduced by 0.02 yuan / M ~ 0.03 yuan / m to 1.48 yuan / M.

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< p > under the climate of terminal consumption depression, the textile raw material market has shown a "down to deep" and limited "Wen Tunshui" market. The so-called positive factors are easy to be dispelled, and the actual turnover is difficult to sustain recovery. Polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and acrylic fiber industry have launched a large-scale production restriction campaign. Polyester filament and nylon filament are relatively stable due to small profit or loss, and the overall operating rate is near 80%.

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< p > in the traditional sense, the 7~8 month is the pitional stage of the domestic market slack season turning to the peak season.

Many people in the industry said that with the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand is expected to increase steadily, and the price of textile raw materials will have a strong upward trend.

Moreover, because of the heavy and heavy fabrics used in autumn and winter clothing, the demand for textile materials has increased correspondingly, especially the pactions of coarse denier varieties will become increasingly active.

For chemical fiber enterprises, this is a good node for product inventory and the best time to break through.

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< p > however, the demand market is not improving at present, but there are signs of continuing recession.

As of press release, inventory of grey fabric in main weaving production bases such as Wujiang, Jiaxing and Huzhou continued to rise. The overall inventory was generally around a month, and some of them were higher in one and a half months or two months.

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< p > in addition, there is another point of view, that is, the capital factor. The chemical fiber enterprises are required to pay for the goods and then deliver the goods.

It is reported that this year many bombs and weaving enterprises indicated that the receivables increased significantly compared with the same period last year. Most of the arrears of the bomb factories ranged from 1 million to 2 million yuan / Taiwan, and a few were higher than 3 million to 4 million yuan / Taiwan.

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< p > the accumulation of funds caused by the gradual accumulation of inventory and the widespread phenomenon of arrears of payment result in the risk of a general decline in the loom's starting rate in the future.

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"P" is unique. The import and export data are not ideal, which will cause a certain pressure on the market price.

In July 10th, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in June, China's import and export volume was 321 billion 510 million US dollars, and the exchange rate factor decreased by 2% compared to the same period last year. Imports of US $147 billion 190 million, down 0.7% compared with the same period last year, and the expected increase of 7.6%; exports 174 billion 320 million US dollars, down 3.1% compared to the same period last year, the first drop in 17 months, far less than the expected growth rate of 4%.

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< p > increase: 1.72% ~ 9.54% gain champion < /p >

< p > spandex < /p >

< p > exports remain at a high level, stocks are reasonably 40D, slightly tight, < /p >

< p > Market Review < /p >

< p > different performances of polyester, nylon, viscose and other products. After a slight increase in the first quarter, the price of the polyurethane market in the two quarter moved up again.

As of June 30, 2013, 20D spandex price range at 58000~60000 yuan / ton, 30D spandex price range in 50000~55000 yuan / ton, 40D spandex price range in 47000~54000 yuan / ton, than the first quarter of the market price level rose 1.72% to 9.54%.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the cost side, the operation of pure MDI market is not good, and the mainstream price is 20500~20800 yuan / ton. As the downstream a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes < /a > bottom fluid, slurry and other fields, the overall order performance is weak, the industry is more bearish for the latter market, but many manufacturers have limited production maintenance to play a supporting role.

Another main raw material market for PTMEG is located at 26000~27400 yuan / ton. The overall consumption is still stable. The new single negotiation is more stable and stable.

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< p > from the supply side, the spandex market has been carrying on a relatively tight state. First, the spandex export volume has been maintained at a high level this year, and the average monthly export volume is above 4000 tons; two, the spandex production enterprises have been adjusted in real time according to the actual demand, and the overall inventory keeps a reasonable range. In previous years, there is no longer any phenomenon of pressing goods, and the 40D spandex supply is slightly tight.

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< p > from the demand side, due to the poor performance of terminal textile demand, the downstream weaving factory started to control, resulting in a decrease in total consumption of spandex.

Due to the lack of follow-up orders and funding problems, circular machine production has a weak trend and the overall load is at the level of 4~6.

In the context of relatively optimistic demand, the starting rate of the yarn, cotton bags, warp knitting and other fields is slightly higher, and the overall load is at 6~7 near the level.

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< p > overall, the operation rate of downstream weaving factories is decreasing, and the consumption of spandex industry is reduced. However, the inventory of manufacturers is still at a low level, which is a strong support for market price.

It is expected that spandex market will be maintained in a short term in the near future.

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< p > increase: 0% only flat < /p >

< p > acrylic fiber < /p >

< p > Ningbo individual manufacturer Ku Cungao speed up with peak season < /p >

< p > Market Review < /p >

< p > under the influence of raw acrylonitrile first and then downstream, yarn production and sales are not prosperous, industry concentration, production and price protection, the acrylic fiber market in the two quarter is weak and stable overall, and the price center of gravity changes little.

As of June 30th, the mainstream price of 1.5D * 38mm cotton staple fiber was 17800~18500 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D * 64mm medium and short staple fiber was 17700~18000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D acrylic tow was 17600~18500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 3D acrylic top was 18500~19500 yuan / ton.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the perspective of raw materials, acrylonitrile prices continue to rise and import costs are high due to the increase of propylene and the tension of ocean sourced sources.

However, with the recovery of normal production of acrylonitrile plant in Fushun petrochemical industry, the overall industry starts to increase to about 90%, and domestic acrylonitrile production will increase.

It is expected that imports will be affected or limited, and the overall supply of acrylonitrile is still relatively stable.

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From the supply side, the domestic acrylic fiber industry continues to implement measures to limit production and insurance, and the main plant or parking repair or reduce operating rate, the overall operation load is generally maintained at around 80%.

Therefore, the overall inventory pressure of the industry is not obvious, and the production and sales of mainstream factories are basically balanced. Only a few individual manufacturers in Ningbo still have a high inventory level.

In terms of import sources, due to the lack of obvious price advantage, buyers are still buying small quantities on demand, and import volume is still limited.

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< p > demand from the point of view, downstream acrylic yarn shipment is not smooth, lack of orders and other needs to boost, inventory pressure is high.

Therefore, it is difficult to support the raw materials procurement in order to strengthen the market of acrylic fiber.

But with the late autumn and winter textile < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > usher in the busy season, the relevant enterprises will purchase raw material acrylic yarn in advance, then the order of the cotton mill will increase obviously, and the speed of the shipment of the acrylic factory will be accelerated.

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To sum up, in summary, acrylonitrile from raw materials is difficult to give a strong boost to the market. However, based on the limitation of production prices of acrylic producers, the acrylic fiber market will continue to operate in a short run in the short run. P

In the middle and later stage, as the demand of traditional peak season starts, the activity of acrylic fiber market will increase, or it will usher in a long wave of rising prices.

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< p > cotton increase: -0.39% to 0.42% < /p >

< p > cotton increase: -7.90% ~ -2.70% < /p >

< p > cotton < /p >

< p > 328 cotton index monthly line, the biggest decline in cotton production in is less than 10%.

< p > [market review 1: current price spreads first expanded and then narrowed] < /p >

In the two quarter of the year P, Zheng cotton oscillation went down, and cotton spot market was relatively stable. The 328 cotton index fluctuated narrowly in the range of 19300~19400 yuan / ton, resulting in a trend of first spread and then narrowing.

It is worth noting that the 328 cotton index has appeared for the first time since July 2012.

As of June 28, 2013, the 328 class cotton closed at 19300 yuan / ton, compared with the end of 3, a total decline of 75 points, or 0.39%.

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< p > [market review 2: inside and outside cotton price difference high] < /p >

< p > with the ease of supply shortage concerns, the two quarter cotton hit the biggest quarterly decline in a year, while domestic cotton prices declined significantly because of the protection of the policy of purchasing and storage.

As of June 28, 2013, China's cotton price index was 328 yuan 19300 yuan / ton, import cotton price index M grade cotton 1% tariff is 15085 yuan / ton, inner cotton is 4215 yuan / ton higher than outer cotton.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

Less than P, 2013 will end in July 31st.

In view of the increase in the intensity of China's cotton reserves before the end of July, the potential of the replenishment potential of the textile industry will be reduced at the same time.

At present, the quota of textile enterprises is relatively cautious. On the one hand, they prepare for the purchase of cotton at the right time after the end of the dumping. On the other hand, it also purchases the cotton quota resources outside the shipping date of the month of November.

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< p > after the end of the current round of dumping and storage, the introduction of the new deal will have a key impact on the spot market and will directly affect the price trend of the market.

If the supply of cotton can be sustained and the supply of cotton can be effectively guaranteed, the opportunity of Port Bonded cotton and the improvement of domestic buying and selling atmosphere will be greatly reduced.

If the future policy of dumping and storage fails to continue, then there will be a small market in August and September before the new flower is listed.

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< p > July and August cotton gradually entered the critical period of output growth.

Cotton is growing well in the country this year, and the yield per unit area is expected to increase. However, the meteorological departments in various regions predict that in July, the precipitation in the northern part of Xinjiang, the central and southern parts of Northeast China, the North China and Huang Huai parts is more than that of the same period of the same year. Some areas may have rainstorm, flood and other disasters.

In the context of the global decline in planting area and production, especially when China's area has reached a new low of 10 years, the weather conditions of all cotton producing areas will become one of the themes of the late market speculation.

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< p > increase: -0.48% ~ -3.20% < /p >

< p > polyester filament < /p >

< p > inventory turnover rate is very low, money consumption is no improvement and the power limit is below /p.

< p > Market Review < /p >

In the two quarter of P, the market of polyester filament decreased.

The systemic risk spoiling, coupled with the unsmooth delivery of terminal textiles, and the cautious and pessimistic attitude of the loom and weaving factories, the purchasing intention of raw polyester filament is not strong, only a small amount of replenishment is the main reason, and traders' stockpiling mentality is obviously weakened. Generally, the operation method of "fast forward and quick out" is adopted.

As of June 30th, the mainstream price of polyester filament POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F were 10300~10500 yuan / ton, 11900~12100 yuan / ton, 10500~10700 yuan / ton respectively, compared with the price of the first quarter, the price dropped 0.48% to 3.20%, up 8.33% to 10.42% over the same period last year.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the historical rule of output and price, the fall of price often leads to the reduction of polyester factories, and the "price drop - Factory loss - forced reduction" is the trilogy of price competition between polyester filament production enterprises and polyester filament.

Therefore, only when the price of polyester filament falls far below the marginal cost can the polyester plant reduce production significantly to improve the relationship between supply and demand.

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< p > up to the end of 6, according to the formula of PTAx0.865+MEGx0.335+1000, the production cost of polyester filament POY150D/48F is 10000 yuan / ton, and the profitability is still in a benign orbit, so there will be no large-scale production restriction plan.

At the same time, 250 thousand tons of FDY equipment, 200 thousand tons of POY equipment for Huaxing tires, 400 thousand tons of POY and FDY installations for Huaxing high fiber were put into operation in the three quarter.

In addition, new equipment such as Tong Kun Heng Jia, new Feng Ming Zhong Wei, Jiangsu Hongtai and Fujian Honghong will continue to support silk spinning.

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< p > three quarter is the pition stage of the off-season production to the peak season, and the actual demand will be better than the two quarter.

However, the future development of the demand market is very uncertain.

Because of the shortage of terminal textile orders and the decline in inventory turnover, the proportion of capital occupied has increased. Many enterprises have changed from "not bad money" to "very bad money".

Therefore, the purchasing strength of raw polyester filament is greatly restricted.

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< p > with the advent of hot summer weather, the "electricity restriction order" is coming again.

It is reported that the Jiaxing Wang Jingjing district has implemented classified power restriction since July 1st, and the time limit for small weaving enterprises is longer than one and a half months.

This will directly affect the actual consumption of textile raw materials, and the market for which demand is not improving is undoubtedly "adding insult to injury".

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< p > above all, supply is increasing, demand is facing greater uncertainty, and price has strong fall expectations.

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< p > increase: -1.96% < /p >

< p > polyester staple fiber < /p >

< p > domestic direct spinning capacity breakthrough 6 million tons of pure polyester yarn exports increased by 129.5% compared to the same period < /p >

< p > Market Review < /p >

< p > after finishing the callbacks in the first quarter, the polyester staple market gradually stabilized and started a long trend of Interval Oscillation in the quarter.

There are three main reasons for the market to stop falling: first, the production of raw materials PTA has changed to an oscillating pattern after overfall, and has continued to decline; the two is the improvement of downstream cotton mill operation, from loss to profit; the expectation of polyester staple price has changed from decline to steady; three, along with the polyester staple price center of gravity has reached 10000 yuan / ton pass, the acceptance of downstream cotton mills has also improved, and replenishment and stockpiling movements have increased earlier.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the cost side, Asian PX ACP was finalized at $1410 / ton in July, and the cost of PTA material was 7600 yuan / ton, which constituted a certain support for PTA and polyester market.

But in June, the load of the PTA plant increased considerably, and the PTA social inventory increased, which kept the price up.

The supply pressure of another raw material MEG is large, and it is difficult to form a trend increase.

As of the end of June, 909 thousand tons of main ports in East China were stored, a slight decrease of 42 thousand tons from the previous month.

In terms of installations, South Asia will restart 700 thousand tons of equipment on line 4 in mid July, and the new Wuhan petrochemical plant will also start in mid July.

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< p > from the supply side, when the new PET staple device is put into use, it will aggravate the situation of oversupply.

At present, domestic direct spinning polyester staple fiber production capacity has exceeded 6 million tons.

In the second half of this year, Jingwei new fiber 200 thousand ton new device will be launched. At that time, the direct spinning polyester staple fiber production capacity in Fujian will reach more than 90 tons, making it the second largest production base after Jiangsu area.

At the same time, the capacity of the northern region will also expand, and the new Shandong Wan Jie 150 thousand tonnes will be put into production. With the increase of production capacity, it will also reduce its price difference with the southern region.

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< p > from the demand side, the downstream pure polyester yarn still maintains a weak operation pattern, the market liquidity is insufficient, and the buyer's price reduction phenomenon is more obvious.

Cloth mill inventory increases, grey cloth price is difficult to mention, purchasing yarn more cautious.

Fortunately, the export of pure polyester yarn is good this year. In 1~5 months, the export volume of pure polyester yarn in China totaled 79 thousand and 500 tons, a 129.5% increase over the same period last year.

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< p > above analysis, there is a lot of pressure on the market of polyester staple fiber, and the upper point is constrained by the pressure level of 11000 yuan / ton.

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< p > increase: -2.19% < /p >

< p > viscose staple fiber < /p >

After P, the demand for the order is over until mid July. The peak of demand has gone through the medium and long lines. < /p >

< p > Market Review < /p >

In the two quarter of P, viscose staple prices fluctuated far more than cost fluctuations, and most of them were guided by the trend of cost and price, which directly guided market price performance by actual supply and demand.

Under the game of supply and demand sides, the three steps of rising, falling and rising gradually.

As of June 30, 2013, the mainstream price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D * 38mm market was 13300~13600 yuan / ton, down 2.19% from the end of the first quarter of this year, down 8.22% from the same period last year.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the cost side, the demand for cotton lint market is weak. Pulp mills and refined cotton mills are still restricted by capital and operating rate. Most manufacturers use the cotton and linen as their main products.

Therefore, the overall stock of cotton lint is still relatively high, and the Shandong Xiajin area is expected to be near 50 thousand tons.

However, the price of cotton pulp rose slightly, and the mainstream quotation climbed to the level of 6800~7000 yuan / ton near the Xinjiang cotton pulp factory.

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< p > from the supply side, the overhaul of viscose staple fiber industry is more intensive, and it also plays a supporting role in stabilizing market prices.

After the turn over of Jiangsu's annual production capacity of 170 thousand tons, Xiaoshan's annual production capacity of 180 thousand tons has been completely shut down since June 20th, and the maintenance time is expected to be 20~30 days.

It is estimated that the supply of industrial resources will be reduced by about 15% in 6~7 months.

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< p > from the demand side, after the oversold May and June, the orders of the viscose staple fiber factory can support more than before mid July. With the gradual completion of this part of the order, the stock level of viscose staple fiber industry will gradually increase, and the market demand will continue to test the overall trend in the off-season.

According to the past years, the three quarter of cotton and yarn processing will enter the off-season. Yarn enterprises will turn to polyester products as the main demand, and the demand for viscose staple will begin to shrink.

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< p > above all, the viscose staple fiber market will maintain a trend of inertia in the short term.

But with the shrinking seasonal demand, the gap between supply and demand is gradually widening, and the long-term trend is worrying.

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< p > increase: -3.64% ~ -4.08% decline champion < /p >

< p > nylon filament < /p >

< p > machine weaving and warp knitting factories are cautious in purchasing non civilian areas, and the price is stable. < /p >

< p > Market Review < /p >

In the two quarter of P, the market of nylon filament was first suppressed and then raised.

As of June 30, 2013, the high-end POY85D/24F supply of nylon 24000~25000 yuan / ton was accepted in June, the middle end was 23000~23500 yuan / ton in June, and the low end goods source was 22000~22500 yuan / ton near the cash level; the nylon DTY70D/24F high-end goods source was 27000~27500 yuan / ton in June acceptance, the middle end goods source was 26000~26500 yuan / ton accepted in June, the small bullion price was 24500~25000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of nylon FDY70D/24F jet weaving was 24000~25000 yuan / ton in June acceptance, and the mainstream price of warp knitting was 27500~28000 yuan / ton acceptance.

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< p > [outlook] < /p >

< p > from the cost side, the price of the caprolactam manufacturers has been rising frequently as the low price goods gradually consumed in the early stage, and the actual paction price of the market has also increased.

However, the terminal market is relatively slow to follow up, and the new devices will be put into operation gradually, and the market risk in the medium and long term market is gradually increasing.

It is reported that Luxi Chemical 100 thousand tons / year device is expected to test cars in July, Hubei three Ning 100 thousand tons / year device is also expected to be put into operation in July.

With the support of cost pressure and smooth sales, the factory price of nylon chip manufacturers has gone up, but the overall increase is limited.

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< p > from the supply side, because the overall loss is not large, the nylon filament factory has a running load of 7~9.

As the overall supply is ample, and the actual demand is flat, the inventory level is not obvious.

As of press time, spinning factory stock is generally around 15~30 days.

In terms of installations, Zhejiang Deke 10 thousand tons / year new plant is expected to be put into operation in July, and the new 20 thousand ton / year new plant of Yinan chemical fibre plant is also expected to be put into operation in July.

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< p > from the demand side, due to the general demand performance of the terminal textile orders, the overall performance of the civil textile weaving and warp knitting market is weak, and the compression of the manufacturer's benefit makes it more prudent in purchasing raw nylon filament.

Therefore, the pressure of the nylon filament factory is still larger.

In non civilian sectors, such as tire cord, Dan Fusi, staple fiber and other prices, the profit trend of the industry can still be small, supporting the steady demand follow-up.

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Generally speaking, the actual demand is sluggish and it is difficult to support the price rise of nylon filament. However, the cost side support is still in force, and at present the market price is relatively low, and the market price of the P is also limited.

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