Worried About China'S Economic Growth, The United States Cotton Harvest Shade Down

In the early August, the Chinese government will announce the manufacturing index. Investors will be worried about China's economic growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will begin a two day policy meeting on Tuesday. Investors will be concerned about any signs of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Affected by this, Monday's ICE cotton will continue to suffer pressure, and December contract will fall 0.41 cents to 84.71 cents / pound.

On Monday, China's reserves reached 129 thousand tons, dumping and storing into countdown. In the next few months, China's consumption will depend on inventory and imported cotton. In the new year, China will continue to implement 20400 yuan / ton open and unlimited purchase and storage policy. Multiple factors make the fund's multi position unchanged. This will support ICE cotton and not be pessimistic about the callbacks.

< /p >

< p > Monday ICE small Yin collection, the main contract closed on the short-term average in December, the short-term average has a U-turn downward trend, although KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a row, but the two have formed a trend of empty and dead ends, MACD index red column will soon be shortened to 0 axis, cotton prices turn weak, the callback may continue, the short-term target 83.5 cents / pound line, the bargain can be increased again.

< /p >

< p > because the market basically determines that the last year of 2013/14 will be open and closed at a high price in the last year of the year. The new policy will end in March 2014. The new policy will reduce the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices, and the sharp negative factors will lead to a sharp increase in the pressure of the short positions, so that the position of Zheng cotton will be reduced. However, the 1401 and 1405 contracts belong to the 2013 /14 annual contract. The open and unlimited purchase and storage may lead to the shortage of warehouse receipts in Zheng cotton. At the same time, there is a arbitrage opportunity for buying the futures into the country in the 1401 contract theory.

However, in the case of the basic adjustment of the reserve policy, the forward contract will be under pressure. Zheng cotton is likely to fall. It is advisable to keep short and continue to hold the contracts for the long and medium term contracts. The 1401 contract is 19700 yuan / ton, and the downlink target is 19400 yuan / ton.

(Du Ying, Urumqi Sales Department of Wanda futures) < /p >

< p > ICE cotton futures trading is light, and shade down is less than /p >

< p > ICE cotton futures fell slightly on Monday, the main contract in December fell 0.41 cents, closing at 84.71 cents.

US Department of agriculture weekly crop growth report shows that as of July 28th, the US cotton growth rate was 45% in the week ending July 28th, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. With the weather improvement in Texas, the largest cotton producing state in the United States, the growth rate of cotton growth has been raised, and the market has eased this concern. The direct subsidy policy that China will soon implement will replace the storage and purchase, which will suppress the decline of the forward price of Zheng cotton futures and also have a negative impact on the cotton futures.

ICE cotton futures closed down, trading slack, investors wait for some news data, Wednesday two quarter GDP initial data on the United States on Wednesday, Thursday China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will be announced, HSBC China manufacturing index shows that China's manufacturing activities slowed down, especially important is Wednesday the Federal Reserve will end two days of interest conference, investors will be looking for loose monetary policy trend from the statement after the meeting.

ICE cotton futures weak fall, the overall continuation of the interval adjustment market, supporting 83 cents below.

< /p >

< p > ZHENG cotton futures fell sharply on Monday, the main force fell 110 yuan in 1401 months, fell to 19210 in the intraday, and closed at 19750 yuan.

Spot price, China cotton price index 328 cotton newspaper 19229 points, down 3 points, cotton reserves yesterday put in more than 292465 tons, actually traded more than 129288 hands, the paction proportion is 44.21%, the weighted paction price is 18665 yuan / ton, the imported cotton is more than 100 thousand tons, the import cotton of 2012 year is first put in, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > the enterprise auction is positive, the single day turnover is the largest since the cotton storage has been put into operation, and the cotton storage is coming to an end, and whether there is no definite information after August.

Market rumors will issue 500 thousand tons of processing trade quotas in August, plus the quotas for dumping and storage. The quota supply will be relatively loose in August.

Recently, the China Cotton Association said at the relevant meeting that 2013/14 is the last time to purchase and store, and the new year's storage is strict. It may reduce the profit of cotton enterprises. At present, the market's direct subsidy policy and the voice of throwing stocks after August make investors worry about the long-term market.

In the implementation of 2013/14, the policy of purchasing and storage has a supporting role in short-term cotton prices. In recent days, the volume and position of Zheng cotton futures have increased.

For the 1401 month contract, it is not recommended to chase down the air, but it can do more dips and the upper resistance interval is 19800-20000.

(Haitong futures Zhengzhou Sales Department: Zhang Jianwei) < /p >

< p > short term material will continue to maintain a concussion pattern. The upward trend of the central line has not changed. < /p >

< p > overnight ICE main contract continued on a trading day's weak posture, concussion downward, the end of the table closed slightly.

Technical characteristics indicate that the short term weak pattern of the ICE main contract may continue for some time, but the upward trend of the central line has not changed.

China's opening up and storage is about to start and the policy of dumping and storage will be finished as scheduled. However, China's limited stock and relatively general cotton quality can hardly meet the cotton consumption of textile enterprises in the coming months.

The supply gap between inner and outer cotton markets is the main driver to support the US cotton maintaining a strong trend, but the weak terminal consumption restricts the uplink of the global cotton market.

From the news side, the news on Monday was biased.

Data show that the US housing sales index in June was significantly lower than that in May. This shows that the recovery of the US real estate market is not as strong as expected. Weak real estate data also cast a shadow over the US non-agricultural data and GDP that will be released this week.

In addition, China's weekend industrial enterprise profit data is good, and the government says it will conduct a comprehensive audit of local finance, which in a way also leads to a weakening of market sentiment.

The unsatisfactory economic data changed the market's optimistic expectations of economic growth, thereby putting upward pressure on risky assets including the US cotton market.

Above all, ICE's short-term shocks may be weaker, but the foundation of maintaining a strong central line has not changed.

< /p >

< p > ZHENG cotton yesterday staged a panic selling market on the face of technical and weekend bad news. Zheng cotton 1401 contract once dropped to 19200 yuan / ton line, but then quickly recovered most of the decline, ending at close to 19700 yuan / ton.

Under the many unfavorable backgrounds such as the frequent looming quality of national cotton storage, the full storage and storage points, and the pressure of financial difficulties, the open and unlimited purchase and storage policy of this year can be effectively implemented and the market is generally doubtful.

Therefore, despite the fact that the current price difference of zhengmian 1401 contract is within a reasonable range, the market is still hesitant.

In fact, there is a "Terry Finn puzzle" in open and unlimited storage. If the condition of storage and storage is harsh, the quality of state cotton can be guaranteed theoretically. However, the existence of the butterfly effect will make the loss of cotton growers increase exponentially when the profit potential of the processing enterprises is damaged. On the contrary, if the storage and storage conditions are loose, the quality of the national cotton reserves will naturally not be guaranteed. However, at this time, the interests of cotton farmers have been effectively protected.

If the policy guidance of the State Reserve purchase is to protect the interests of cotton farmers, the "harsh" two words are difficult to be reflected in the State Reserve purchase. Moreover, "harsh" should be mainly reflected in the choice of the purchase level, and according to market rumors, the purchase level has been quite loose.

Above all, the foundation of Zheng cotton's 1401 contract has not changed. Despite the short term "noise" in the short term, the operation continues to be a big bargain.

< /p >