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Support For Us Textile Futures Is Relatively Strong In Support Of Textile Demand.

2013/8/2 22:12:00 15

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the monthly report on cotton supply and demand released by the US Department of agriculture shows that the world's 2013/14 end inventory is expected to hit 94 million 300 thousand Bao Xingao, an increase of 10% over the previous year, because the world's cotton output has exceeded consumption for fourth consecutive years, which has led to a negative impact on cotton prices, but the weather in cotton producing areas has changed or formed support.

The end of the National Reserve will end at the end of July, which will support the short-term cotton price in the short term. However, the inflow of market funds will limit the rebound of futures and will still fall later.

1. Review of market situation

July, under the support of "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> textile > /a > demand support, the trend of US cotton futures is relatively strong, but the domestic futures price due to technical adjustment has been temporarily and quickly killed, but there are certain buying support below.

At the end of the month, the market mentality is rising and the price is rising.

The 1309 contract in recent months has caused a sharp increase in cotton losses due to a short fire due to a fire in a cotton storage bank. It once wore a 21000 yuan / ton mark.

zhengmian main 1401 contract price in July showed a trend of low recovery, the highest price of 20055 yuan / ton, the lowest 19680 yuan / ton, the month K line compared with the previous January fell 135 yuan / ton (data as of July 26th).

On the total contract, volume increased, holdings increased slightly, and market funds showed signs of small inflow, but still remained cautious and stalemate.

two, and the analysis of influencing factors

(1) USDA:2013/14 world cotton consumption will continue to rebound

cotton consumption in the world 2013/14 is estimated at 109 million 800 thousand packs, an increase of 2% (2 million 400 thousand packs) compared with the previous year.

India and Pakistan are expected to spend 23 million 300 thousand and 11 million 700 thousand packs respectively in 2013/14, up 3% and 6% respectively over the previous year.

The amount of textile mill in India is expected to be reduced by 250000 packets from the previous month, and the amount of textile mill in Pakistan and 2013/14 in 2012/13 decreased by 500000 and 300000 packs from last month, respectively, in.

India and Pakistan account for 60% of the expected increase in the world's 2013/14 cotton mill.

China (the world's largest cotton consumer) expects to spend 36 million packs in 2013/14, unchanged from last year.

China's national reserve purchasing and storage policy has increased the price of domestic textile mills, reduced the profits of spinning mills, and forced the textile industry to buy more cotton yarn from other Asian countries, such as India, Pakistan and Vietnam.

In addition, IMF's July 2013 world economic outlook lowered China's economic growth in 2013 and 2014 from April 2013 to 7.8% and 7.7% respectively, which is not a good sign for China's domestic cotton demand.

world 2013/14 end inventory is expected to hit 94 million 300 thousand Bao Xingao, an increase of 10% over last year, because world cotton output has exceeded consumption for fourth consecutive years.

China's 2013/14 end inventory is expected to be close to 60 million packages, an increase of 18% over the previous year, accounting for 63% of the global final inventory.

Australian and Brazil stocks are expected to be 2 million 700 thousand and 6 million packs respectively at the end of 2013/14, up 19% and 8% respectively over the previous year.

India and Pakistan 2013/14 stocks are expected to be 8 million 400 thousand and 3 million packs respectively, representing an increase of 8% and 6% respectively over the previous year.

In the July world supply and demand forecast report, India 2013/14 end inventory was revised to nearly 1 million 200 thousand packages from last month's forecast.

The US 2013/14 end inventory is estimated at 2 million 900 thousand packs, down 26% from last year.

Although overall inventories have increased, the world stock outside China's cotton reserves remains tight, which is supportive of prices.

The US forecast in July assumes that China's current policy of reserve and storage of cotton reserves remains unchanged.

(two) cotton input situation and cotton growth situation in the new year.

1, China Cotton Association: Cotton Growth in 2013

June 2013, the cotton association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative respectively verified the cotton planting area of 2766 cotton farmers in 12 provinces in the mainland and 310 counties (cities and regiments) in Xinjiang autonomous region in 2013, and investigated cotton growth and made the first production.

The results showed that the cotton planting area in China was consistent with the previous survey.

As of the end of June, nearly 80% of cotton budding in China has entered flowering stage.

Since the sowing of cotton, the general meteorological conditions of the whole country are suitable for cotton growth, which is suitable for the whole year, but slightly worse than the same period last year, and the cotton development has been postponed.

In June, some cotton areas suffered from meteorological disasters such as torrential rain and hail. Although the output of cotton was affected, it would still be a harvest year if there were no major disasters in the later stage.

according to the weighted average of cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the area of cotton planting in the whole country is 68 million 220 thousand mu, and the same caliber decreases by 6.7%.

By the end of June, the cotton bud rate in the whole country was 78%, which was 7 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The incidence of pests and diseases was relatively low, accounting for 79% of the diseases and 59% of the pests. The growth rate was 49%, and the indicators were slightly lower than that of the same period last year. Cotton growing in the mainland is relatively good, and the growth of Xinjiang cotton area is slightly worse. The total output of the country is expected to reach 6 million 987 thousand tons, down 5.8% from the same period last year.

in the the Yellow River River Basin cotton region, most of the total heat was abundant in June. There were several rainfall in Henan, Hebei and Shandong provinces. The drought was relieved and the soil moisture was more suitable for the growth and bud emergence of cotton. However, due to the unfavorable meteorological conditions, cotton growth was relatively slow, and the time of bud emergence was 7-10 days longer than in previous years.

As of June 30th, the percentage of households surveyed was 86%, down 12 percentage points from the same period last year.

The incidence of diseases and insect pests is relatively low. The surveyed households accounted for 83% of the disease, which was 15 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. The main reason is that the old cotton fields are more serious. But the weather has cleared up in the late stage. The disease has been effectively controlled, accounting for 73% of the pests, which is basically the same as last year.

The overall growth of cotton is better, and cotton growth is considered to be 55% of the total surveyed households. The cotton yield per unit area is slightly higher than that of last year.

sunny weather in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River is conducive to the growth and development of cotton. Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi are growing well. Some areas in Hubei and Anhui are relatively dry, and cotton grows slowly. In the last ten days, the rainfall eased the drought. However, continuous heavy rain also caused some cotton to suffer from waterlogging disasters, especially in Jiangsu.

By the end of June, the rate of buds in the surveyed households was 74%, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

Because of the earlier drought, there were almost no diseases, but the incidence of late rainy weather increased, but the incidence was relatively mild. The surveyed households accounted for 68% of the disease, which was 13 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. 67% of them were considered to be less insect pests, representing an increase of 15 percentage points over the same period last year.

The overall growth of cotton is better. It is considered that the growth rate is better than 59% of the total surveyed households.

light and temperature conditions are generally suitable for planting in Xinjiang cotton area, but the average temperature and sunshine are reduced compared with the same period last year, while precipitation increases. In the middle part of Southern Xinjiang, some areas of cotton are attacked by heavy rain and hail.

After the disaster, some cotton farmers replanted cotton early maturing varieties, and cotton growers changed corn, watermelon and other crops. The cotton area was reduced, but the area of Bazhou and other areas expanded earlier than the previous ones, and the two areas were offset. The area of Xinjiang remained relatively stable this year.

As of June 30th, the rate of buds in the surveyed households was 73%, which was 2 percentage points slower than the same period last year.

The incidence of disease was relatively slight, and the degree of insect pest occurrence was slightly heavier. The surveyed households accounted for 83% of the disease, 13 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and 35% less insect pests, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

The overall growth of cotton is worse than that of last year. It thought that the growth rate was only 33% of last year's growth, but it was 44% less than that of last year.

2, China's cotton reserve situation

as of July 26th, the total amount of the total listing was 14203231.87 tons, with a total turnover of 3387839.449 tons, with a total turnover of 23.85%.

Among them, 798001.1011 tons of imported cotton were accumulated, and 686125.8885 tons of imported cotton were imported in 2011 in May 6th.

according to the "central storage cotton" notice, since April 18th, it has been throwing and storing the Xinjiang cotton in 2012. In May 6th, it began throwing and storing 2011 cotton in the 2011 year. The national cotton auction bid was much more active than before. Especially since the end of May, the average daily output of cotton increased significantly, and the competition price of textile enterprises became increasingly fierce. In May 23rd, 30 thousand and 100 tons of cotton (mainly cotton, West African cotton and so on) were all traded, and the average price of the paction was also rising.

In May 6th, the -23 put in 57 thousand and 250 tons of cotton and 100% of the total turnover, and the auction was extremely fierce. From the price of the auction, the final sale price of the same grade 2011 cotton was significantly higher than that of the 2011 real estate cotton.

another reason for enterprises to choose imported cotton is that the net weight of imported cotton is less than that of the imported ones, and it is a little more cost-effective than the current direct purchase.

(three) import and export

according to customs statistics, China imported 269 thousand and 800 tons of cotton in June 2013, a decrease of 76 thousand tons from last month, a decrease of 22%, a decrease of 43.3% compared with the same period last year, and an average import price of 2160 US dollars / ton, up 122 US dollars compared with May, or 6%, down 9.2% from the same period last year.

In the first 10 months of 2012, total imports of 3 million 782 thousand tons, down 20% from the same period last year, and 2 million 412 thousand tons in the first half of 2013, a decrease of 21% over the same period last year.

the overall macroeconomic environment in June is still weak. The textile market is characterized by low season characteristics, low demand, increased inventory of finished products and increased pressure on capital.

Domestic low-grade yarn prices continue to weaken, high-end products prices are relatively strong, cotton imports to Australia and other countries of high grade cotton, the average price continues to rise, imports have continued to decline since March.

The proportion of sliding tax imports to import cotton is the highest, reaching 70%; the general trade import is still the largest proportion in trade mode, and the proportion of processing trade is nearly half; processing trade is growing obviously; the country of origin is still the largest in the United States, while Australia and Brazil are growing rapidly, while India continues to decline significantly; import customs is mainly Qingdao, Shanghai and Nanjing; Beijing, Shandong and Jiangsu are the most importing areas.

(four) downstream demand status

According to the data released by the Customs General Administration, in June, the export volume of our textiles < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > was US $24 billion 90 million, an increase of 4.9% over the previous month, an increase of 5.3% over the previous month, of which 9 billion 225 million US dollars in textile yarn, fabrics and products were exported, a decrease of 5% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year, of which the export of garments and accessories was 14 billion 864 million US dollars, an increase of 12.1% over the month, an increase of 2.66% over the same period last year.

In the past 3 months, the export volume of textile products in China has shown a pick-up trend, indicating that the short-term textile export situation has improved slightly. However, judging from the seasonal changes, the second half of August will fall back from the beginning of August, and is in the off-season stage. It is expected to have adverse effects on cotton prices in the coming months.

(five) spot area

cotton spot market is light and the price has dropped.

The price of imported cotton in China's main port has not changed significantly, and the difference between domestic and foreign prices has narrowed slightly.

The cost of imported cotton is still significantly lower than that of China's cotton price index for the same period of 3500 yuan / ton.

By the end of July 26th, China's cotton price index (CC Index328) closed at 19232/ tons, down 80 yuan / ton compared with June 26th, 229 yuan at 20036 yuan / ton, or 27 yuan; 527 level at 16892 yuan / ton, or 53 yuan / ton P.

(six) national commodity cotton turnover inventory and Zhengjiao exchange warehouse receipt situation

cotton warehouse Association of China Cotton Association has statistics on 154 warehousing units. As of the end of June 2013, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 269 thousand tons (including 257 thousand tons in the mainland and 12 thousand tons in the Xinjiang Library), with a reduction of 18 thousand tons, a decrease of 673 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Commodity cotton turnover inventory is still mainly imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton, of which Xinjiang cotton accounted for 40%, real estate cotton accounted for 13%, imported cotton accounted for 47%.

Accordingly, the total inventory of cotton turnover in the whole country is about 333 thousand and 800 tons, a decrease of 23 thousand and 200 tons from the previous month.

In that month, 23 pit stations in the Xinjiang District pported 3 thousand tons of commercial cotton to the mainland by rail, a decrease of 1 thousand tons, a decrease of 184 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

June, the market situation is still the same, and the turnover of the national commodity cotton turnover is steady, which is significantly lower than that of the same period in the previous year.

The number of Xinjiang cotton pportation along Xinjiang Railway and highway remained basically stable, of which railway pportation was mainly reserved cotton, and highway pportation was mainly commodity cotton.

In June, 1701 vehicles from the Xinjiang highway were reduced by 2 vehicles, and 4078 vehicles were exported from March 15th to June 30th.

as of July 26th, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange registered 202 warehouse receipts, with an effective forecast of 45.

Zheng cotton warehouse receipt and effective forecast totaled about 9880 tons, while zhengmian warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, but still under the historical average level.

(seven) seasonal trend analysis

from the cotton price index trend, since 2005, the cotton futures price index has dropped the most probability in August.

The year of rising prices in 2005, 2010 and 2012 rose by 0.18%, 3.51%, 4.49% and 3.08% respectively, while the year of decline was 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011, with a decrease of -3.12%, -2.44%, -4.04%, -2.69% and -0.56% respectively.

In terms of the monthly amplitude, the largest fluctuation in 2011 was 1514 yuan, while the other years were basically maintained between 700 and 900 yuan.

from the seasonal statistics, the average fluctuation of cotton futures price in August is 890 yuan, and the overall performance is the situation of falling probability.

It is estimated that there will be a slight decline in the price of Zhengzhou cotton in August 2013, and the price fluctuation is expected to be around 400 yuan.

(eight) price trend technical analysis

the futures contract of Zheng Mian 1401 has basically maintained a narrow oscillation in the range of 20300 - 19500 yuan / ton since February, and the medium and short term average lines are in a state of being sideways, while trading volume and positions are in a state of extremely atrophy.

This shows that the two sides of the market are in a cautious way of trading, and there are obvious signs of early withdrawal.

In this context, futures prices will generally continue to maintain a narrow range of volatility, and do not rule out a small crash in some short time.

three, August outlook,

From a macro perspective, China's lower PMI index shows that industrial activity has shrunk. The Ministry of industry and Commerce plans to eliminate capacity in 19 industries, and structural adjustment will still have a partial effect on the overall commodity in the process of economic pformation. P

On the basis of P, the world's 2013/14 stock is expected to hit a new high of 94 million 300 thousand bags, and the current cotton price is still suppressed.

The end of China's release of storage at the end of July will boost domestic buying of cotton in the United States, but the digestion of domestic stocks will still create pressure on domestic cotton prices.

If there is no obvious inflow of market funds, it is difficult for Zheng cotton price to form an effective rebound market. It is expected that the possibility of late fall will be great, and whether the next part of the concern is broken.

It is estimated that the zhengmian 1401 contract will operate in the range of 20000 - 19000 yuan / ton interval.