Cost Pressures Ease Recovery Of Support Textile Exports

< p > > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > clothing > trade > export statistics for the first half of the year, export volume and export amount show a relatively rapid growth, mainly affected by three aspects: first, external demand is slightly warmer. In the first half of the year, China's textile and garment exports showed an increase in the weak recovery of the traditional market and the strong demand in emerging markets. Two, the cost pressure is relatively eased. In 2013, cotton prices rose outside 1~3 months, while domestic and foreign a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton price difference < /a > narrowed slightly, coupled with the early high priced inventory digestion, business pressure was relatively reduced. Three, the base was relatively low in the same period last year. From the point of view of data authenticity, some foreign trade data in China were distorted by the behavior of arbitrage in 2013 and April. However, the distortion of foreign trade data in the industry affected by the characteristics of textile and clothing products is relatively limited, and the data can reflect the actual export situation to a certain extent. < /p >
< p > textile > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > garment industry < /a > high dependence on foreign trade. Export rebound has promoted the improvement of business performance to a certain extent. From the financial performance of the industry, in the first half of 2013, the total revenue and profit of the textile and garment owners' business grew year-on-year. < /p >
Overall, the traditional market in Europe and the United States, though weak and resurgent, has little strength to recover in the short term. The strong US dollar index will make the RMB effective exchange rate at a high level. At the same time, the short-term fluctuation of the price difference can not change the fact that the majority of the quota free cotton spinning enterprises in China have a high cost pressure under the influence of the purchase and storage system and the quota system. Chinese textile and garment exports still face greater pressure, and export growth is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. < /p >
< p > < strong > the first half of 2013 textile < a href= "http://www.91se91.com > > garment industry < /a > export data to good" /strong > /p ".
At the end of July, export data of textile and garment industry were released in the first half of P. In terms of quantity, the export volume of main textiles and cotton yarn in 2013 1~6 was 266 thousand and 100 tons, up 16.04% over the same period last year. Clothing, in the first half of this year, the total export of garments was 15 billion 515 million, an increase of 6.97% over the same period. In terms of the amount, textile yarn, fabrics and articles exported in the first half of this year totaled 51 billion 156 million US dollars, an increase of 10.07% compared with the same period last year, and the total export of garments and accessories reached US $76 billion 49 million, an increase of 13.40% over the same period last year. In the first half of 2013, the export volume of major textiles and clothing increased by 19.87 percentage points and 10.98 percentage points respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate of exports increased by 8.80 percentage points and 11.50 percentage points respectively over the previous year. In the one or two quarter of 2013, the total export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 15.73% and 9.15%, respectively. The two quarter of this year has dropped somewhat, but in the first half of the year, the overall export volume is still recovering. < /p >
< p > < strong > demand improvement, cost pressure relative relief, support export weak recovery, < /strong > /p >
There were three main reasons for the rapid growth of industrial export data in the first half of the year P. First of all, from the demand side, the external demand in the first half of the year is slightly warmer. Despite a slight decline in demand in Japan, the consumer confidence index and the year-on-year growth rate in the traditional markets of the European Union and the United States have rebounded, supporting the overall external demand. In 2013 1~6 months, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > textile > /a > clothing exports to the traditional market EU, the US and Japan amounted to 27 billion 933 million US dollars (accounting for 21.95% of China's total exports), 18 billion 185 million US dollars (14.29%) and 12 billion 160 million US dollars (9.56%), respectively, representing an increase of 6.81%, 5.08% and -0.48% respectively. In the first half of the year, China's exports to emerging markets continued to show relatively rapid growth, and the export volume to ASEAN was 16 billion 176 million yuan (12.71%), up 43.14% over the same period last year. ASEAN's position in the export market surpassed Japan for the first time. In the first half of this year, China's exports to the four "BRICs" all increased, of which Russia grew by 35.8%, to India by 29.4%, to Brazil by 10.4%, to South Africa by 11%. < /p >
< p > secondly, from the cost point of view, internal and external a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton price difference < /a > narrowing narrowed the cost pressure of enterprises relatively eased. Since the implementation of the open cotton purchase and storage policy in 2011, the domestic cotton price has been significantly higher than the average price in the international market during the same period, resulting in a big difference in cotton prices between the inside and outside, and the peak period is close to 6000 yuan / ton. From November 2012 to the beginning of March 2013, the price of cotton rose or increased by about 24%. At the same time, when the price of cotton rose rapidly in early 2011, the high priced cotton (about 30000 yuan / ton) was gradually digested, and the cost pressure of raw materials was reduced. But it is worth noting that since mid March 2013, the price of foreign cotton has declined and the price difference between domestic and foreign enterprises has increased. Due to the 2~3 months lead time, the related cost pressures may be reflected in the three quarter. On the whole, the domestic cotton price has always been higher than the foreign cotton price since October 2011 after being affected by the state's purchasing and storage policy for three consecutive years. Although the price difference has changed since the price fluctuation of foreign cotton, the overall price is still on the rise, and is still at a high level. The short term changes in price differentials can not change the fact that most of the domestic cotton free spinning enterprises have high cost pressures under the influence of the purchase and storage system and the quota system. < /p >
< p > Third, cardinal effect. In the same period last year, the price of raw materials was high and external demand was low. In the first half of 2012, the export volume of cotton yarn and garments increased by -3.83% and -4.01% respectively. The export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 1.27% and 1.90% respectively, at a low level. < /p >
Since P, since 2013, the export tax rebates have been defrauded for the purpose of collecting foreign exchange and interest spread. Quite a few enterprises have used the "arbitrage of goods" and the forward letter of credit pledged financing to increase the volume of exports, resulting in the distortion of some foreign trade data in China before 2013. In terms of textile and apparel industry performance, in April this year, China's textile and clothing exports to Hongkong increased by 45% over the same period last year, and increased 71% to ASEAN, which was significantly higher than normal months. After investigation by relevant state departments, it confirmed that trade had abnormal factors. Since May, the customs and other departments have issued regulatory measures, and the data have begun to return to reality. The export of textile and clothing to Hongkong and ASEAN declined to 18.8% and 14.1% in that month. The export growth of textile and clothing in June was 9.72% and 2.66%, respectively, compared with the 14.80% and 21.53% in April. On the whole, the export data of textile and clothing are also affected by the foreign trade data, but there is a certain amount of moisture. But the distortion is limited. The trade growth is mainly concentrated on high priced products such as electronic products. The export price of textile and garment is small and the area of goods is relatively large, which is not suitable for the trade fraud. Therefore, the export data of textile and clothing can reflect the improvement of external demand to a large extent. < /p >
In the first half of the year, < < p > > strong, the financial index of the industry has improved, and the export will be under pressure in the second half of the year < /strong > /p >
< p > textile and garment industry has a high degree of dependence on foreign trade. Above scale textile > a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > garment enterprises < /a > export value accounts for about 20%, while small and medium-sized enterprises account for about 50% of the total export volume. From the perspective of the industry's financial performance, the textile industry index is better than the clothing industry because it benefits directly from the narrowing of the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices. In the first half of 2013, the gross revenue and profit of the textile industry reached 1 trillion and 659 billion 530 million yuan and 78 billion 820 million yuan respectively, up 14.30% and 19.20% respectively from the same period last year, and the gross profit rate reached a 12.09% high point from December 2012 to February 2013. The gross profit margin fell to 11.15% in 2013 3~5. The total revenue and profit of main business in garment industry reached 696 billion 296 million yuan and 3 million 688 thousand and 500 yuan respectively, up 13.23% and 15.05% respectively over the same period. From December 2012 to February 2013, the gross profit margin reached a 17.06% high level in the single quarter, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin fell to 14.87% in the 3~5 quarter of 2013. Due to the difference between the two quarter of domestic and foreign cotton prices will impact on the comparative costs of enterprises will be reflected in the three quarter, it is estimated that the three quarter of corporate earnings and profits growth will slow down. < /p >
< p > from the second half of the year, although the recovery of external demand is weak, the recovery of traditional markets in Europe and the United States is limited in the short term. At the same time, although the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar slowed down in June or even devalued at the end of the month, the US dollar index will remain strong in the context of the tightening of the Fed's policy, thereby driving the effective exchange rate of the renminbi at a high level, which is likely to continue to bear pressure on exports. In addition, under the background of global cotton supply easing, the cotton purchase and storage system that will continue at least until March 2014 will still make China's cotton price at the highest level in the world. Compared with the main export competition countries, the cost of raw materials in China is still at a disadvantage. Overall, the growth rate of industrial exports will slow down in the second half of the year. < /p >