High Global Storage Pressure On New Year Cotton Prices Difficult To Rise

< p > short term < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > ZHENG Mian < /a > will still maintain the pattern of weak oscillation. Due to the support of the new cotton purchase and storage policy in the new year, the 1401 contract can be arranged more than 19600 yuan to 19700 yuan / ton in the medium and long term.

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< p > < strong > high storage and suppression. The cotton price in the new year is easy to fall and difficult to rise. < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to the data from the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in August, the world's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > cotton < /a > supply and demand forecast report, the total output of cotton in the year of 2013/2014 is 25 million 340 thousand tons, down 355 thousand tons from the previous month.

The expected reduction in production will play a short-term boost to the US cotton market.

Visible from the plate, before and after the introduction of the report, the US cotton December contract lasted for two weeks, but after all, the profit factor still needs time to verify, and it is expected that the global cotton will continue to be loose in the new year, so the US cotton continues to go up still weak.

CFTC's position also confirms the cautious attitude of the market. As of August 20th, the fund's net position in cotton futures was 78955 hands, and the net long interest rate of the fund was 48.16%.

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In the new year, the global cotton supply surplus is expected to be reduced by 1 million 548 thousand tons to 1 million 422 thousand tons compared with 2012/2013 in P.

However, the new year's global cotton expects 20 million 415 thousand tons of final inventory, creating a historic peak in the past 18 years.

Due to the suppression of high inventories, cotton prices will fall easily in the new year, that is, the loose pattern of supply and demand of global cotton will continue in the new year, and cotton prices will go up hard.

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< p > < strong > the beginning of the new and old cotton connection, the domestic "a href=" http://www.91se91.com > cotton inventory < /a > adequate < /strong > /p >

< p > 2013, China's textile enterprises are basically locked in two aspects: Cotton throwing cotton and imported cotton.

According to statistics, from 1 to July, the total amount of cotton thrown and stored in the country was 3 million 720 thousand tons. From June to June, the total import cotton was 2 million 100 thousand tons, with a monthly average of 350 thousand tons. If the import 250 thousand tons per month in July and August two months, the import volume of cotton in China is expected to be 2 million 600 thousand tons in 1 August.

In this way, the total supply of throwing cotton and imported cotton is 6 million 320 thousand tons, and if the new and old year is pferred in September, the monthly cotton supply will be 700 thousand tons.

According to the current consumption scale (still using the expected data of USDA, the consumption volume of our country this year is 7 million 838 thousand tons, with a monthly average of 650 thousand tons), which is enough to smooth the pition of textile enterprises to the new year.

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< p > according to the data from cotton information network, as of the end of July, China's commercial inventory was 1 million 680 thousand tons, an increase of 300 thousand tons from last month, which is enough for 8 months and two months in September.

As of the end of July, the a target= "_blank" "http://www.91se91.com/" "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > Enterprise cotton stock is 1 million 37 thousand and 900 tons, and the disposable cotton stock is 1 million 521 thousand and 900 tons.

It can be seen that during the new and old cotton connection, China's cotton supply is quite adequate, that is to say, there is no shortage of cotton due to the slow growth of new cotton in the new year.

Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in September.

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< p > < strong > cotton will be stored and stored soon in the new year. High purchase price or support for cotton price < /strong > < /p >

When p is about to enter the new cotton year, the cotton purchase and storage policy will be implemented again.

Although the relevant rules for storage and purchase have not yet been released, it is estimated that the purchase price will not be lower than that of last year, which will effectively support the current cotton prices.

Entering the September, with the launch and acquisition of new cotton, it is expected that cotton prices will rise slightly.

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< p > in short, short term cotton prices will continue to oscillate in the interval. Later, we need to pay close attention to the detailed rules of the policy of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton storage and storage < /a > in the new year. If we continue the 2012 model, we expect cotton prices to rise slightly.

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