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Zhang Wenmin On Cotton Market Trend And Trend In 2013/2014

2013/8/30 8:58:00 29

Zhang Wenmin Cotton Market Cotton Futures

reporter: Recently, enterprises are very concerned about the trend and trend of cotton market in 2013/2014. You have long been concerned about and engaged in cotton industry research. Please analyze the situation of the cotton market. 
 Zhang Wenmin: in, the world and China's cotton market continued to produce more than sales and supply exceeds demand. According to the US Department of agriculture's July cotton data forecast, the world's cotton production volume is 26 million 399 thousand tons, consumption is 22 million 379 thousand tons, supply exceeds 4 million 20 thousand tons, ending inventory is 18 million 632 thousand tons, and inventory consumption ratio reaches 79.70%, creating the highest level in history. China has 7 million 620 thousand tons of cotton production, 7 million 838 thousand tons of consumption, 4 million 355 thousand tons of imports and 10 million 888 thousand tons of inventory. As of July 24th this year, a total of 3 million 310 thousand tons of policy throwing cotton reserves were accumulated, plus 1 million 100 thousand tons of imported cotton quotas, and the amount of textile cotton was abundant. It is predicted that the new cotton production volume will be 7 million 200 thousand tons in 2013/2014, and the state will continue to open up and store 6 million tons ~650 million tons. In the future, it will be spanferred to the process of de stocking, storage, dumping and storage. The time, price, quantity, location and way will become the main factors that affect the price of cotton market. 2012/2013~2013/2014 is the policy year led by < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > reserve cotton < /a >, and China's cotton market will enter the stage of de stocking. 
 reporter: Cotton direct subsidy is ready to come out. What do you think it should be done? What is the expected effect? Can you solve the huge problem of cotton price difference at home and abroad? 
 Zhang Wenmin: we can draw lessons from the national grain direct subsidy policy, try out Cotton Subsidy Policy from the second half of this year, implement preferential support to Xinjiang's key areas, directly subsidize 100 yuan / mu ~200 yuan per mu, or 1000 yuan ~1200 yuan per ton of lint cotton according to the cotton planting area or quantity of cotton growers. At the same time, we should also adopt the New Cotton Subsidy System in the United States at the same time by adopting Cotton Subsidy, target price subsidies and separation from market prices. Cotton in the US has taken a basic subsidy of 51.92 cents / pound for a long period of time, and a margin free allowance for cotton futures and options hedging has been given, and export cotton has been subsidized by warehousing and freight. In the 2013/2014 and the following years, China can refer to the US cotton subsidy practice, comprehensively implement the reserve cotton system, and pre import low price imported cotton, replace the storage reserve cotton by throwing the storage wheel, reduce the quota of the imported cotton partly, and let the textile enterprises use the same market price level at home and abroad to solve the huge price difference of 3000 yuan ~5000 yuan per ton in the cotton market. 
There will be a recovery in the world and China's cotton market in P 2014/2015. After two years of downturn in the cotton textile industry, with domestic and international economic recovery, domestic and foreign cotton market prices are expected to rise by 10%~20% or above. 
 reporter: what do you think the comprehensive development strategy of China's cotton industry should be? 
 Zhang Wenmin: China's < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > Cotton Industry > /a > three major strategies for the comprehensive development of the market: first, to establish the outline and strategic plan for the development of cotton industry in China and Xinjiang; two, to actively strive for the state's preferential policies to support the cotton industry; and three, to establish a long-term mechanism for the cotton industry to "build up China's own cotton imports by combining production with deficiency" and "fill in deficiency". 
 reporter: it is understood that Wanda Futures Company's cotton futures trading ranks the top one or two of the 164 annual operating achievements of the Futures Company in the whole country, and 20 business departments have been set up in the key cities of the country as an important carrier for product futures hedging and undertake the commodity futures business of cotton, PTA, wheat, sugar, oil and other commodities. Wanda futures has become the largest cotton futures business in the country. Large and medium-sized enterprises have more than 90% of Xinjiang's high-quality cotton resources and more than 30% of the textile consumption market. Establish cotton cooperation relationship with Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei and other cotton futures matching delivery banks. How to make use of the functional advantages of the cotton futures market? And what are the operational modes of the cotton futures business in the new year? 
 Zhang Wenmin: the futures market has the five functions of finding prices, avoiding risks, increasing profits, saving funds and promoting industrial development. It has established a new mode of efficient and comprehensive operation of the high-end market of cotton futures, spot commodities, and financial capital. It has made 100% futures trading, 10% warehouse margin pledge, trade financing loans 60 to 70% warehouse receipt pledge 80% margin, with a total margin of 10% yuan per ton of cotton futures, 500 yuan per ton of cotton futures, less than a href= "/a". 
 Wanda Futures Company cotton futures have 8 modes of operation: first, cotton futures comprehensive operation mode; two, Xinjiang cotton enterprises and mainland textile enterprises "merging treasure" and "non general warehouse receipt conversion" through train mode; three, Xinjiang cotton and linen Station delivery center as the futures business mode of cotton futures; four is futures warehouse cotton cotton ginning factory mode; five is large enterprise non gap current hedging operation mode; six is investment fund futures commodity financial operation combination; seven is cotton professional cooperatives, cotton growers mode; eight is spot futures cooperation and import reserve cotton futures hedging operation.