Can Cotton Price Reduction In Most Parts Of The Country Rise?

Cotton farmers believe that the price of seed cotton is 9 to 10 yuan per kilogram this year, but the buyout companies do not agree.

"Affected by pre disaster weather, cotton production reduction in the main producing areas this year is a foregone conclusion. Compared with previous years, cotton production will be reduced by one or two this year. In addition, cotton picking period is generally 10 days later than in previous years. Zhang Wenmin, director of cotton research and development center of Wanda futures, told futures Daily reporter.

Cotton production is reduced in most parts of the country.

Reporters learned from the Xinjiang Cotton Association, the low temperature in May has affected the cotton knot peach, 6 and July, part of the city of Xinjiang also suffered hail. "Hailstones are as big as eggs, less than half an hour, and the cotton plants are beaten into light stalks." Xinjiang province Yuepuhu County cotton grower Han Qi said that his family's 20 mu cotton reduced production about 40%.

According to the Economic Crops Research Institute of Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinjiang's cotton production decreased by 10% in 2013, and the yield in southern Xinjiang was larger than that in Northern Xinjiang. Some ginning plants in Akesu, Kashi and other places predict that the output of cotton in the southern Xinjiang will be concentrated in 320 - 380 kg / mu this year, and the yield per unit area will decrease to 250 - 300 kg / mu in 4 and May. In addition, since mid August, some of the better growing cotton spider mites are more serious, and the yield per unit area may be down by 20% compared with last year.

At the same time, cotton production in Hunan, Shandong and other places is also concerned by the industry.

Lixian is a large cotton producing county in Hunan. Local farmers have shown that 7 and August have had a certain impact on cotton production because of drought and no rain. In 2012, the total output of cotton in Hunan province was 320 thousand tons. From the previous statistics and current situation, the total output of cotton in the province decreased by one or two compared with last year.

"Our continuous high temperature and drought, cotton production will definitely decline, and my daughter-in-law's home (Shandong), July is continuous rain, her brother's family planted 20 mu of cotton this year, originally expected to have a good harvest, but the continuous rain also shattered her brother's good wishes." A farmer in Lixian is very depressed.

Cotton production, cotton prices can rise?

Cotton production and cotton price rise seem to be normal logic. As the cost of physical and chemical labor and labor costs rise, cotton farmers consider that the price of seed cotton will be 9 to 10 yuan per kilogram, but the buyout companies do not agree that "seed cotton is higher than 9.2 yuan / kg. We will definitely lose money." Henan Fugou County, a cotton processing enterprise official said.

Since September 10th, cotton processing plants in Korla, Xinjiang and Yuli County have begun to buy new cotton, and Luntai, Ruoqiang, and Mecca have been purchased sporadically, and four counties such as ho Shuo have planned to buy Korla in September 12th. Zhang Wenmin said, "compared with previous years, the cotton purchase period is delayed, the sales volume is not large. Up to now, the state has acquired more than 1500 tons of seed cotton, and the purchase price of seed cotton with 40% lint is 8.70 to 8.80 yuan / kg.

Han Qi introduced that the cost of planting has increased by 8% - 10% this year, and cotton production is cut this year, so cotton growers have high expectations for seed cotton prices. "Picking requires a large number of flower picking workers. If the seed cotton sale price is below 9 yuan / kg, we are not willing to sell."

However, in Kashi, Akesu and other places of ginning enterprises, the purchase price of 40% lint seed cotton should not be higher than 8.90 yuan / kg. If the purchase price is too high, there will be no profit for the ginning enterprises.

This month, cotton purchase and storage rules promulgated. Reporters learned from China cotton information network, the main cotton producing areas in China, the purchase time is different, the purchase price is 8 - 9.35 yuan / kg. Cotton production is reduced and cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. The market is not good enough. "On the one hand, farmers are picking up one after another, looking forward to rising prices; on the one hand, enterprises want to pay back, and look at quality and price." Wang Shufei, an agricultural product analyst at Huizhou merchants, said that the purchase price of seed cotton is on the rise. The psychological price of seed cotton purchase is at 3128B level 8.6 yuan / kg (lint 40%).

Wang Shufei believes that the market for 9 and October, the national price cut and store expectations are strong, and the 2014/2015 national direct subsidy policy, the withdrawal policy is expected to withdraw, in March 2014 after the purchase and storage, cotton prices may fall again, when the domestic and foreign cotton price difference is expected to return.