Weekly Report On Textile And Garment Industry: Some Thoughts On The Recent Rise Of Clothing Market

Some thoughts on the recent rise of the clothing market, the recent rise logic of the clothing section is similar to that of Commerce. Valuations and stock prices are at a historic low level, and there is a wave of popularity under the impetus of O2O.

We believe that O2O not only integrated the online and offline businesses, but also integrated the back end front-end of the enterprise value chain, thus breaking the original valuation system of the traditional industries, which is not just valuation repair, but has entered the stage of upgrading the valuation system. This is a big challenge for the traditional industry researchers, because even the enterprises with clearer O2O strategy are still in the initial stage, and they do not know what kind of height they can push the stock price to, so the callback is not very good at judging where the bottom is.

Therefore, in the case of unclear prospects, we have to start with the sub section to sort out the most suitable sub sectors for O2O.

We feel that "home textiles, outdoor and leisure" are more suitable for O2O, of which the outdoor and home textile industry is still in the development stage, and the uplink space is very large. It is optimistic about "Pathfinder, Luo Lai and Fu Anna". The competition in the leisure industry is too intense, the industry is also mature, and whether O2O really has the ability to turn the tide is needed to be observed. We think that men's clothing is in line with the rising market, high-end women's clothing is less affected by the electricity supplier, but it can also accurately locate customers through data analysis. Through online display and publicity, it can promote the sale of physical stores on the line and be optimistic about the "Langer share".

策略觀點:25%朗姿股份,25%探路者,20%富安娜,15%華孚色紡,15%航民股份10月組合:棉紡公司今年業績預期較為充分,市場分歧在于對棉花直補政策能否在明年推出存在不確定性,我們持樂觀態度,但近期棉紡公司催化劑不夠,估計橫盤為主,下調華孚色紡權重至15%;航民股份權重下調至15%,公司業績增速不錯,但估值基本到位;朗姿預計三季報業績增速平平,但四季度單季業績增長有望超過200%,權重25%;探路者基本面未變,但市場情緒轉向,在“好業績+O2O+可穿戴設備+收購預期”的多重因素刺激下,股價有可能繼續上行,權重25%;因為下半年屬家紡傳統消費旺季,公司秋冬訂貨會超預期同比增長15%,且有“金九銀十”房地產銷售的連帶刺激效應,配置20%富安娜。

Recommended portfolio: 25%, 25%, 20%, 20%, Fuhua, and 15%.

The past week's trend: the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has won 4.03 percentage points, and the yield has ranked first. In the past week, the textile and garment industry index of the people's livelihood has reached 2.61%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (-1.42%) 4.03 percentage points, ranking first in the 29 first tier industry index.

Among them, the yield of textile and clothing sub sectors is -1.01% and 6.77% respectively.

Risk suggests that the economy is down, and consumption figures are less than expected.