A Shares Have Not Entered The Bull Market, And The 1849 Point Is Below The Probability.

< p > expert analysis from the eight points of view that at present A shares have not entered the bull market, and the rise from 1849 is only a rebound, not a reversal.

The probability of being broken at 1849 points in the future is larger.

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< p > from the bottom shape, the most solid is the arc bottom, followed by the bottom of the head and shoulders, followed by the double bottom (also known as the W bottom), and finally the V shape reversal.

And we can see that 1849 is a single pin bottomed K-line, which is in line with the form of V shape inversion. Soochow Securities believes that this form is often very unstable.

The exceptionally large base of history, such as 325, 512, 998, 1664 and so on, has never formed an extra large base in the form of V shape reversal. Therefore, from the perspective of historical bottoming, the rise of the current round should only be a rebound rather than a reversal.

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< p > from the historical super base, we can see that the volume formed on the bottom of any bottom is shrinking, because the kinetic energy of the main force of the empty side has fallen.

It can be seen that the 1849 point was formed on the same day, and the volume of pactions was heavy. And there was an old saying in the stock market, that is, "the volume is not the bottom". Therefore, from the perspective of volume, the air force on the 1849 day was not exhausted, and the probability of breaking down in the latter stage was greater.

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< p > "boundless sea of shares".

How can we make the best use of our advantages and avoid disadvantages? We should use two magic and unique trend lines to identify oxen and bear, understand traps, succeed in sniping the main force, and seize wealth from the pockets of the banker.

The 156 day average price trend line is the multi space stop loss line, and the 321 day average price trend line is the ox bear dividing line.

If the index or share price breaks through the 156 day line, it will go directly into the fall market.

In the process of decline, there will always be a bizarre rebound after the 321 day line and 156 crossing.

This rally usually takes place 3-8 days after the death of a fork, and the average rally is around 10%-30%.

This is a rare piece of fat in the fall.

But this kind of rebound is just a short complement, and the main force is attracting more for escaping.

There will be a more violent fall after the rally.

In the history of the A share market, the 156 average and the 321 average line will often rebound after the death of the 321 average, but after the rally, the bottom of the previous stage will be destroyed. The slowest time will take 13 months. At present, the market is on the 1849 bottom in June 25th. It has been less than five months now, and the 156 average line has also formed a dead crossing with the 321 average.

Therefore, from the perspective of long-term average, the author thinks that the 1849 point is only a matter of time.

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< p > in the same day, a Yin line breaks down the shape of three equal lines on 5, 10 and 30 days, which is called the form of broken end knife.

In the last Monday, the market appeared a broken end knife form, the appearance of this form, feel A long line worrying.

This is because, according to historical statistics, the appearance of such a broken end knife itself is very few, but once it appears, it often follows a wave of declining market.

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< p > box theory calculation is a simple method which can accurately predict the mid and long term trend of the market.

There are many specific methods, one of which is the high point before the low point and then the previous high point, often the first target position in the latter market.

"At present, the author takes 1849 times 2270 and then divides 2334, and draws 1798 points. Therefore, from the perspective of box theory, the probability of the market breaking down 1849 points is still large, and the A shares are worrying at the later stage."

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< p > there is no Yin and Yang, only size.

The volume column in the index or stock is gradually from the relative low position to meet the 135 day average line and exceed the 135 day average line. It can be judged as a signal of the rising trend.

Conversely, when the volume column is shrinking from a relatively high level and does not meet the 135 day average line, it can be judged as a signal of a downward trend.

(relative highs mean that the increase is more than 50%, and the relative low level refers to a fall of more than 50%).

"At present, the volume of the market has not exceeded the amount of energy in the early 1849 rise, and the quantity has not been able to meet the 135 average line volume, and has not formed a heap volume pattern. Therefore, from the theory of quantity and price, the market has not taken the bull."

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< p > every time the market falls to the very bottom, the stock price in the market tends to fall below 5 yuan. When the 1849 point is formed, the price of the stock is mainly in the range of 5-10 yuan, and it does not fall below 5 yuan.

Therefore, from the price range, the market has not seen the bottom.

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< p > "once made a statistics, every time the market fell to the super bottom, often the plate will see the bottom at the same time, and after 1849 points bottomed out, there are still some small and medium sized boards and GEM stocks are running at a high level, so from the plate view, the market has no bottom."

Soochow securities, Wan Shan said.

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