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The Main Keynote Of Next Year's Policy Is Still Active Fiscal And Prudent Currencies.

2013/11/5 22:20:00 51

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"our a href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> deficit < /a > rate has reached 2.1%. What is the concept? The EU has set a standard that the deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP. Of course, many members failed to comply with it. As a result, we all know that there has been a European debt crisis. The last few years have continued to the present. Some countries' economic growth has been unable to even decline, the unemployment rate has increased greatly, and the original welfare can not be guaranteed. " Li Keqiang said. 
 because the budget report of this year's government was formulated by the previous government, and the deficit rate set by China at the beginning of the year was 2.1%. Although the government's work report at the beginning of the year stressed that it is still in the safety line, it is easy to see from Li Keqiang's position that he is worried about the scale of the deficit and financial risks. 
 from China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > < /a > revenue and expenditure situation, although the fiscal revenue growth slowed down in the first half of the year, it began to pick up gradually in the second half of the year. In the first three quarters, the total revenue was 9 trillion and 800 billion yuan, 77% of the annual plan was completed, and the expenditure was 9 trillion and 150 billion yuan, and 66% of the annual plan was completed. 
 may be based on the consideration of controlling fiscal risks. In the second half of this year, the general expenditure of the central government departments has been reduced by 5%, including other transfers, including local transfer payments. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued a civilized request that the budgetary funds that have not yet been implemented to specific projects and implementing units at the end of September should be recovered. This means that the new government will try to reduce expenditure and gain more fiscal surpluses in the way of tight days to guard against potential financial risks. 
 it can be envisaged that in the face of the fact that more than 10 trillion of the huge local government debt, a large number of people's livelihood debts need to be repaid, and the aging society has arrived, China will be compressing the general fiscal expenditure to make up for other deficiencies. This year, starting from the central government, it will probably be decomposed into various places next year, and the tight days leading by the government may just begin. 
According to official sources, China will carry out bus reform nationwide in the next year to reduce the expenditure of public funds by P. 
Li Keqiang P also made clear in his speech that the government should tighten up the day when people want to live a good life. The central government has "eight provisions", and the government clearly puts forward "Three Laws". This year, the central authority's administrative expenditure has been cut by 5%. One of the money that has been LEED out is tax reduction for small and micro enterprises, involving 6 million households and tens of millions of employed persons. 
 from the perspective of prudent monetary policy, although the policy formulation has not changed this year, compared with previous adjustments to interest rates and deposit reserve ratios, this year's monetary policy is obviously more neutral. In the current broad monetary scale is still huge, stable monetary policy may still be next year's choice. 
Li Keqiang P mentioned that in the face of the pressure of economic downfall this year, the policy choice is not to expand the deficit, neither relax nor tighten monetary policy. Instead, we should innovate the way and way of macroeconomic regulation and control. We should take effective and targeted measures, including deepening reform, releasing dividends, transforming government functions, and reducing taxes for small and micro enterprises according to the situation. 
 "in terms of money, the balance of our broad money supply M2 exceeds 3 yuan at the end of the month, which is two times that of GDP." GDP In other words, there is a lot of money in the pool. If we send more tickets, it may lead to inflation. As we all know, hyperinflation not only interferes with or destroys the market, but also brings enormous side effects and pressures to people's lives, and even leads to panic. He said. 
 according to statistics, China's broad money supply M2 balance at the end of 9 is 107 trillion and 700 billion yuan, and the total GDP (gross domestic product) in the first three quarters is 38 trillion and 680 billion, and the former is nearly three times that of the latter. {page_break} 
 .
 emphasize reasonable interval and bottom line thinking .
 Li Keqiang clearly pointed out that the essence of China's steady growth is to ensure employment. According to the calculation, 10 million new jobs and 4% registered urban unemployment rate are guaranteed, and China needs 7.2% economic growth. By 2020, the average annual growth rate of China will reach 7% if we build a well-off society in an all-round way. 
 although the growth target of 7% has been put forward in the 12th Five-Year plan formulated by the Chinese government, but in the face of China's customary "eight guarantees" (GDP growth) complex, Li Keqiang's innovative regulation and control method obviously emphasizes the bottom line thinking of "reasonable interval". 
 from the Chinese Premier's position, we can see that the new government's tolerance threshold for the growth rate of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > GDP < /a > is 7%, but this does not mean that China's next year's economic growth target will be reduced to 7%. It is customary to set aside some space for setting economic targets at the beginning of the year. It is speculated that China's GDP growth target in 2014 is likely to remain at 7.5%. 
When Li Keqiang put forward the "reasonable interval" in July this year, there are many kinds of interpretations, and he also gave the answer clearly. The lower limit is 7.5% of the GDP set by the people's Congress at the beginning of the year, and the upper limit is CPI (P) rose by 3.5%. 
 China's GDP grew by 7.7% in the first three quarters of this year, and CPI rose 2.5% in 1-9 months. 
 obviously, the setting of reasonable intervals also reserved space for the government's regulation and reform, including financial reform, fiscal reform, social security and so on, and the above reform paths may be found on the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which was held on November 9th -12. 
 as for the future investment focus of the Chinese government, it is not difficult to see from Li Keqiang's speech that infrastructure investment including high-speed rail, as well as the old-age service industry to cope with the aging of the population, environmental protection and air pollution control will be the main areas for the Chinese government to support investment in the future. 
Next year, China is likely to continue to adopt a combination of positive fiscal and prudent monetary policy. The positive fiscal policy is more reflected in the expansion of the scale of people's livelihood expenditure, but the deficit size may not necessarily increase. While prudent monetary policy may become more neutral in operation, so as to reduce the disturbance to the micro economy. P 
 "our deficit rate has reached 2.1%. What is the concept? The EU has set a standard that the deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP. Of course, many members failed to comply with it. As a result, we all know that there has been a European debt crisis. The last few years have continued to the present. Some countries' economic growth has been unable to even decline, the unemployment rate has increased greatly, and the original welfare can not be guaranteed. " Li Keqiang said. 
 because the budget report of this year's government was formulated by the previous government, and the deficit rate set by China at the beginning of the year was 2.1%. Although the government's work report at the beginning of the year stressed that it is still in the safety line, it is easy to see from Li Keqiang's position that he is worried about the scale of the deficit and financial risks. 
 from the perspective of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure this year, although the fiscal revenue growth slowed down in the first half of the year, it began to pick up gradually in the second half of the year. In the first three quarters, the total revenue was 9 trillion and 800 billion yuan, 77% of the annual plan was completed, and the expenditure was 9 trillion and 150 billion yuan, and 66% of the annual plan was completed. 
 may be based on the consideration of controlling fiscal risks. In the second half of this year, the general expenditure of the central government departments has been reduced by 5%, including other transfers, including local transfer payments. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued a civilized request that the budgetary funds that have not yet been implemented to specific projects and implementing units at the end of September should be recovered. This means that the new government will try to reduce expenditure and gain more fiscal surpluses in the way of tight days to guard against potential financial risks. 
 it can be envisaged that in the face of the fact that more than 10 trillion of the huge local government debt, a large number of people's livelihood debts need to be repaid, and the aging society has arrived, China will be compressing the general fiscal expenditure to make up for other deficiencies. This year, starting from the central government, it will probably be decomposed into various places next year, and the tight days leading by the government may just begin. 
According to official sources, China will carry out bus reform nationwide in the next year to reduce the expenditure of public funds by P. 
Li Keqiang P also made clear in his speech that the government should tighten up the day when people want to live a good life. The central government has "eight provisions", and the government clearly puts forward "Three Laws". This year, the central authority's administrative expenditure has been cut by 5%. One of the money that has been LEED out is tax reduction for small and micro enterprises, involving 6 million households and tens of millions of employed persons. 
 from the perspective of prudent monetary policy, although the policy formulation has not changed this year, compared with previous adjustments to interest rates and deposit reserve ratios, this year's monetary policy is obviously more neutral. In the current broad monetary scale is still huge, stable monetary policy may still be next year's choice. 
Li Keqiang P mentioned that in the face of the pressure of economic downfall this year, the policy choice is not to expand the deficit, neither relax nor tighten monetary policy. Instead, we should innovate the way and way of macroeconomic regulation and control. We should take effective and targeted measures, including deepening reform, releasing dividends, transforming government functions, and reducing taxes for small and micro enterprises according to the situation. 
 "in terms of money, the balance of our broad money supply M2 exceeds 3 yuan at the end of the month, which is two times that of GDP." GDP In other words, there is a lot of money in the pool. If we send more tickets, it may lead to inflation. As we all know, hyperinflation not only interferes with or destroys the market, but also brings enormous side effects and pressures to people's lives, and even leads to panic. He said. 
 according to statistics, China's broad money supply M2 balance at the end of 9 is 107 trillion and 700 billion yuan, and the total GDP (gross domestic product) in the first three quarters is 38 trillion and 680 billion, and the former is nearly three times that of the latter. {page_break} 
 innovation control mode, emphasizing reasonable interval and bottom line thinking /p >
 Li Keqiang clearly pointed out that the essence of China's steady growth is to ensure employment. According to the calculation, 10 million new jobs and 4% registered urban unemployment rate are guaranteed, and China needs 7.2% economic growth. By 2020, the average annual growth rate of China will reach 7% if we build a well-off society in an all-round way. 
 although the growth target of 7% has been put forward in the 12th Five-Year plan formulated by the Chinese government, but in the face of China's customary "eight guarantees" (GDP growth) complex, Li Keqiang's innovative regulation and control method obviously emphasizes the bottom line thinking of "reasonable interval". 
According to the Chinese Premier's position, the new government's acceptable threshold for GDP growth is 7%, but this does not mean that China's next year's economic growth target will be reduced to 7%. P It is customary to set aside some space for setting economic targets at the beginning of the year. It is speculated that China's GDP growth target in 2014 is likely to remain at 7.5%. 
When Li Keqiang put forward the "reasonable interval" in July this year, there are many kinds of interpretations, and he also gave the answer clearly. The lower limit is 7.5% of the GDP set by the people's Congress at the beginning of the year, and the upper limit is CPI (P) rose by 3.5%. 
 China's GDP grew by 7.7% in the first three quarters of this year, and CPI rose 2.5% in 1-9 months. 
 obviously, the setting of reasonable intervals also reserved space for the government's regulation and reform, including financial reform, fiscal reform, social security and so on, and the above reform paths may be found on the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which was held on November 9th -12. 
 as for the future investment focus of the Chinese government, it is not difficult to see from Li Keqiang's speech that infrastructure investment including high-speed rail, as well as the old-age service industry to cope with the aging of the population, environmental protection and air pollution control will be the main areas for the Chinese government to support investment in the future.